Circus Boy

So ... I turn 42 in a few hours.

I think it's reasonable to expect that I've lived about half my life at this point. And I'm ok w/ that. I've always considered myself to be a second half team, anyway. I just need to make some halftime adjustments. Here's what I'm thinking:

First, I'm thinking I need to be a little less conservative. Air it out a little bit. Maybe press a little bit in the backcourt. It seems to me that life favors the aggressive. And being aggressive doesn't have to equal being obnoxious. I think I need to reach out a little more. I'm guessing that 95% of all people, if they have regrets at all at the end of life, regret the things they didn't do more than the things that they did do. I think sometimes I'm governed by my fears (rejection and failure, primarily) ... in the second half I'm going to swing for the fences occasionally. I may strike out some ... but maybe I'll get a hold of a few.

Second, I think I've done a pretty good job of sticking to my game plan ... provide a good return on the talents that God gave me by making the world a marginally better place ... but the execution has been poor at times. I've missed some opportunities to do good. Need to keep my eyes open to where I can help and step in accordingly.

Third, I need to get in my face a little bit here at halftime. My greatest shortcomings are still selfishness and laziness. A friend of mine said recently "Why accept mediocrity? Why?" (He wasn't talking about me ... but he might as well have been.) I need to move the puck up the ice a little faster, finish some checks, start blasting some one-timers. The race may be half over. I have the stamina to finish it. I can pick up the pace a little. I simply need to start giving 100%.

Before closing w/ a section from a really cool book I'm reading, I want to say how much I love my teammates down here. tbKMD, APD, Mom, Dad, Kathy, Kris, Carrie, GMa Fitz, the rest of my family, and all my friends ... thank you, thank you, thank you .... now let's go get 'em.

"Sometimes I feel as though I were born in a circus, come out of my mother's womb like a man from a cannon, pitched toward the ceiling of the tent, all the doctors and nurses clapping in delight from the grandstands, the band going great guns in trombones and drums. I unfold and find flight hundreds of feet above the center ring, the smell of popcorn in the air, the clowns gather below, amazed at my grace, and all the people chanting my name as my arms come out like wings and I move swan-like toward the apex, where I draw my arms in, collapse my torso to my legs, roll over in perfection, then slowly give in to gravity. My body falls back toward earth, the ground coming up quick, the center ring enormous beneath my falling weight.

And this is precisely when it occurs to me that there is no net. And I wonder, What is the use of a circus? and Why should a man bother to be shot out of a cannon? and Why is the crowd's applause so fleeting? and ... Who is going to rescue me?"

Tropical Storm Hanna did not disappoint

Best weather day of the year! Wind gusts topped out at maybe 35-40 mph. The airport got over 5 inches of rain and I'm sure we did too. It's ramping down here, now. Here's a video summary.

Tropical Storm Hanna #6

The Dolberry Tropical Weather Centre is online early this morning. Hanna came onshore near the NC/SC border ~ 3:30am. Most of the highest winds have been detected by offshore buoys. The highest wind gust I've heard of was a 67 mph gust at Wrightsville Beach.

It was raining hard here when I woke up (slacked off some now), but there's been very little wind (< onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5L0GEQVDOoj64cgxMPv95WOJx6DxFsyXvsf-TW7vtsLGrrZVcUzNjN_xeN6Hs5gUyeLYTQdeKAnHU8pjZKkAj0-t5DHLqMdlTYJfIPi2MA2fG0Px9AsLKQJpGW21YDAzBxgFqvQ/s1600-h/doppler1-640x480.jpg">

Tropical Storm Hanna #5

Hanna is approaching. In an ominous sign, the first rain from the storm occurred in my office when drops of water started falling from the ceiling around 3:15 this afternoon. (I called EPA building support, but they still hadn't come by the time I left. It eventually stopped dripping.) The real rain started around 4p w/ some squally showers. It apparently rained hard while the beautiful KMD & I were at a movie (celebrating our 16th anniversary ... Dolberry is a lucky dude). It kinda sprinked while we drove to dinner. Winds were maybe 7 mph or so.

Anyway, the official forecast here is for gusts of up to 40 mph around sunrise tomorrow. The Weather Channel has us w/ a low risk for power outages.

It looks to me like Hanna is starting to form an eye ... and the hurricane hunters have found that the pressure has dropped to 974 mb. But they haven't found any winds above 74 mph, so it's still a tropical storm. When it gets closer to shore, the Doppler radars should be able to sample what the strongest winds truly are.


There was a tornado warning for a county about 100 miles from here, but that cell dissipated rapidly. We're in a High Wind Warning. The wind is just now starting to pick up some, blowing the blinds periodically.

I'll probably wake up early tomorrow to get some pictures and for APD and I to have our traditional "Hurricane Race" where we race each other around the yard in the height of the heaviest rain and wind. I'm 0-4 in these races, but I haven't had a shot in a few years. Tomorrow is my day.

Tropical Storm Hanna #4

Hanna is still projected to come onshore early Saturday morning near the NC/SC border. The primary change is that the models and the NHC don't see much chance that Hanna strengthens into a hurricane. But it'll be a strong tropical storm. And it'll be fast moving. And it is has a very large wind field. All that should conspire to produce a brief (~6 hours) period of fairly significant winds tomorrow night and early Saturday morning. Could see gusts in the 30-40 mph range which hopefully will do no more than scatter some limbs.

Will be interesting to see how much rain we get. The HPC says Hanna will dump a quick 2-3 inches in our area. Also the SPC says we're slight risk for severe weather, tornadoes presumably.


Tomorrow should be an interesting weather day in Apex. It may even surpass the Great Non-Sticking Blizzard of January 19th as the biggest weather day of the year.

Then all eyes turn to Hurricane Ike. The models have started to lock into a southern track, which is bad news for Florida or Cuba. Climatologically though, most major hurricanes (9 of 10) that are where Ike is tend to miss the U.S. (recurve to sea). I tend to trust climatology more than the models at days 5 and beyond.

Tropical Storm Hanna #3

The models continue to shift ever so slightly east and delay Hanna's passage. The NHC is thinking landfall near the NC/SC line early Saturday morning, but then tracking due north and eventuall northeast. This would likely leave us on the west side of the storm which will be calmer and drier. There's still some spread to the models, so it's not a done deal that we're off the hook.

The NHC expects to issue a hurricane watch for the Carolina coasts tomorrow which will likely cancel Mrs D's girls youth group retreat.

Should have a better idea tomorrow night. Maybe worse news is that the models are starting to show Category 4 Ike making a NWward turn toward day 5. We'll see.

Tropical Storm Hanna #2

Hurricane Hanna got ripped up by shear today, but is still hanging on as a tropical storm. If it can make it another 12-24 hours, the shear should relax somewhat ... allowing Hanna to restrengthen.


The models today seem to have moved the storm south w/ the cluster centered around Savannah GA. Due to the angle of approach of the storm, a small deviation to the south could mean a central FL landfall; conversely, a small deviation to the north could mean a NC landfall.


For reasons not clear to me, the NHC are predicting a landfall near Charleston SC, w/ a track right over Apex around 2am Saturday morning. Anyway, until the storm gets its act together and starts actually moving toward the U.S. ... it's too soon to get too excited.

Hurricane Hanna #1

The above graphic shows the various weather models' predictions of Hurricane Hanna's path. There is a slight shift north in the predicted tracks w/ 4 of the 6 models predicting a South Carolina landfall on Friday afternoon at a strength of ~ Cat 2. Unfortunately, the models aren't that good at days 3-5. Further, the models have struggled w/ this storm thus far. (Maps from the Weather Underground.)


If and when HH hits the Carolinas it's projected to be racing inland pretty quickly. Using NOAA's inland wind model, a Cat 2 hitting the East Coast at a forward speed 12 knots (14 mph) could bring 50-65 kts (57-74 mph) winds along its path well inland (e.g., Apex).

We'll see ...

Fun w/ the Myers-Briggs ...

So, sometime last week (the DCV is running behind ... playing too much PacMan), the beautiful KMD, APD, & I took an online version of the Myers-Briggs test. The results were pretty funny.

Dolberry was an ESFP, aka "The Joker". Here's what they say about ESFPs ...

"As adults, ESFPs lead what might look like "a charmed existence,' even when things are not going well for them. They live with the idea that "the glass is half full" and seem to land on their feet, even when they are not sure how. They usually find a niche for themselves in any situation because of their spontaneity and flexibility. For ESFPs bring a liveliness to a groups to which they belong. Life is meant to be enjoyed and is not taken too seriously."

That does kinda sound like Dolberry. My preferred jobs include: hair stylist. Jobs not suited for ESFPs ... physical scientist (which is what i am). Hmmmmm. Famous ESFPs include Ronald Reagan AND Bill Clinton. Famous fictional ESFPs: this guy.

---

The beautiful KMD was an ISFJ, aka "The Nurturer". Here's what they say about ISFJs ...

"ISFJs are super-dependable and seldom are happy working in situations where rules are constantly changing. Their major need to be of service to others leads them into occupations such as nursing, teaching, secretarial work, medical practice (especially general practice), librarian work, and middle management administrative jobs. They relate well to people who need them, for example, the sick, the ignorant, students, and the "boss." Much satisfaction comes to them when they are taking care of the needs of another and they render the service gently and helpfully. While ISFJs are super-dependable, they may be fascinated by and attracted to the irresponsible, the lush, the glutton."

That does kinda sound like the beautiful KMD, though the part about the glutton was a bit of a low blow. I'm just big-boned. Anyway, preferred jobs include: homemaker/teacher. Jobs not suited for ISFJs ... rock star. Famous ISFJs include Kristy Yamaguchi and Queen Elizabeth II. Famous fictional ISFJs: this lady.

---

APD was an INFP, aka "The Dreamer". Here's what they say about those people:

INFP children often create their own fantasy world and live very much within it. They may daydream about what is important to them, and sometimes others wonder if they are in touch with reality. They often get lost in their thoughts and books, and may develop a special ability in communicating, such as writing. They are somewhat reserved, especially in new situations.

Sounds like 3 for 3. Good jobs for INFPs ... an architect (which is what APD wants to be). Bad jobs ... office worker. Famous INFPs include J.R.R. Tolkien and Mr. Rogers. Famous fictional INFP ... it's not Bart or Lisa, instead this kid.


What personality type are DCV readers? Feel free to comment below.

The DCV now featuring Pac Man!

Eat your heart out rival blogs!

Public service announcement from the DCV

The DCV has it's own spinoff now.

If you're as tired of reading about Dolberry as I am tired of writing about him, then perhaps you also will enjoy my new blogging venture. It's the story of a high school basketball coach, but hopefully it'll be about more than that.

Please check it out & let me know what you think. Thanks!

What I did on my blogging vacation (part 2)

Whoa, ho, I've been busy. Too busy to blog that's for sure. What have I been doing? Hmmm. Lots of stuff. Let's see what I can remember. Bear w/ me a bit, here.

Well, let's see, there was yesterday. Yesterday, I played softball. It was the State Church Tournament. 12 teams. We lost our first game, then won the next two, then lost the last one. I was 8 for 15 on the day which is about what I always do. It was a lot of fun, as always.

Before that ... I remember I worked a full week. That was tiring.

Before that ... we went on vacation to Emerald Isle w/ most of the Dolberry family. That was a lot of fun. Maybe even more than softball.

Before that ... I went to Colorado for work. That was fun and tiring. I drove into Rocky Mountain National Park which was a cool experience. If I was a better blogger, I'd have written about it and taken some pictures.

Before that ... we went to Louisville, Boone, and Evansville. It was really cool to see all the people we saw. Oh, and it was fun and tiring.

Please view immediately for important information!

Life Episodes: The Fleetwood Mac concert

In the continuing series of "Life Episodes", we're entering into the way back machine and turning the dial all the way back to November 7th, 1979. Your hero, Dolberry, has recently turned 13 and is in 7th grade at Myers Middle School.

(Aside here: my favorite memory of Myers Middle ... and admittedly it's the best from a small sample of happy memories ... is the week I got to walk home from school to Gma & Gpa Fitz house because I was staying there while my Mom & Dad were in ... Las Vegas. This (ahem) "hands-off" nature to parenting actually sets up the rest of the Life Episode pretty well. Second favorite memory was when Mrs Coffey gave me 5 demerits ... but you've all heard THAT story.)

Anyway, my best friend in those days was David DuBard (David, if you google search your name ... hey we all do it ... and get this link ... e-mail me ... hope all is well.) One of the radio stations in Louisville was running a "Magic Bus" contest. Winners got to invite a friend to accompany them on a bus ride to the Fleetwood Mac concert at the Riverfront Coliseum. Well, David was the 43rd caller (or whatever) and won two seats on the bus and he invited Dolberry to go as well.

Dolberry agreed to go, fully expecting his parents to sensibly veto this decision, thus allowing our hero to save face w/ his peers and at the same time not risk his barely-just-having-gotten-started life w/ 10,000 addled devotees of a mediocre group of 70's hippie rock. For whatever reason they did not. I have a vague recollection they were in Reno over that period ... but I could be wrong on that.

Now keep in mind, at age 13 Dolberry had been to exactly two concerts:

1) Joe Wise in a church gym w/ my entire fam (except El Cueto who was at the riverboat if I remember right), where we rocked out to numbers like "The Epic of Peanut Butter and Jelly" and "The Grizzleback Snookerhog", and

2) John Denver and the Starland Vocal Band w/ my Mom. (I think we got the tix from her bookie.)

Bottom line: I may not have been ready for the Fleetwood Mac Tusk tour. I know a fair number of 7th graders ... some of them read this blog. Frankly, I wouldn't trust one of them to point out Cincinnati on a map ... let alone travel two hours back and forth there on their own for a rock concert.

Anyway, I recall heading out from home on that Wednesday night ... a school night no less (!) ... telling Kathy & Kris that there was Mac & Cheese in the cupboard, to keep a good eye on Carrie, and that I'd be back sometime around 1 am. I walked up to that old Sub Shop near that rundown hotel near the intersection of I-64 and Hurstbourne. We met some of our compatriots on the magic bus and it was at best a "wayward" contingent. On the bus, our chaperone told us "that only cigarettes were allowed on the bus ... save the good stuff for the concert". Dolberry stood up in his bus seat and said "I'm OUT." I called my Mom and Dad (crying like a little girl) at the Bingo Hall and asked to be picked up.

There was a lot of fallout from that decision. 1. Dolberry grew a little bit by making a wise decision on his own and truth-be-told (unlike the rest of this post) those are the only experiences we really learn from ... when we're accountable for our own actions. 2. Dolberry was mocked by most of his 7th grade peers for a considerable period. 3. Dolberry's parents "re-engaged" w/ their parental responsibilities ... all is great now and I can't wait to see them at Churchill Downs this weekend.

(There was a tragic epilogue to the story. A little less than 4 weeks later, 11 people were killed at Riverfront Coliseum at a Who concert when the crowd attempted to storm the entry doors before the arena opened. Very sad.)


Anyway, let's end this blog bit on a happier and more traditional note ... w/ Dolberry's Top 10 Attended Concerts ever:

10. Big Country's New Year's Eve show at the Barrowlands (didn't actually attend ... but have the CD)
9. The Rainmakers @ Park West w/ Stephen in 1989?
8. Newsboys/Toby Mac/Relient K at Kings Dominion in 2005 w/ tbKMD and APD
7. Warren Zevon at the Park West in Chicago w/ Stephen and friends from EPA R5
6. Switchfoot in big old open field at Campbell Univ w/ the TCC YG
5. The Rainmakers in a "private concert" at WXRT studios w/ Stephen
4. John Mellencamp w/ the Super Sisters and Stephen in Indianapolis
3. John Denver w/ my Mom in Louisville a long long time ago
2. Switchfoot, Relient K, & Ruth w/ the beautiful KMD and APD last fall in Winston-Salem
1. U2 in St. Louis w/ Matt Jung

Dolberry Days

A recap of my last few weeks.

May 30: Blue (Apex) loses 14-7
May 31: Blue loses 12-11
Jun 1: Blue wins 10-7

Jun 3: Gold (Cary) loses 19-18

Jun 5: (DH) Gold wins one and loses one
Jun 6: Blue wins 18-1 to earn #3 seed in tournament (finished 8-7)
Jun 7: (DH) Blue beat #6 seed 15-0, then upset #2 seed 14-11 in extra innings
Jun 8: Blue lost in the championship of the winner's bracket 8-6. (I hit a 3-run HR in this one.)

Jun 10: Gold team won 13-6, last game of regular season finished 3rd (8-6)

So after 11 games in 13 days (w/ very sore muscles), tonight was supposed to be the start of the Cary tournament with one game if we won & two if we lost the first one. Instead, we got "smoked" out. Really bad air quality here today (code red) due to fires in eastern NC, so Cary canceled all their games. I also play on our Office team in the EPA league (though I've missed every game so far due to other conflicts). One would think that the EPA league would be canceled on bad AQ days, but one would be wrong. So, I got to play today after all ...

June 12: EPA team lost 15-8.

Tomorrow, we need to win three straight games to win the Apex crown. Any loss & we are done. I've been playing better lately, so it's been fun. No games though Saturday, Sunday, & Monday ... maybe my soreness will abate.

Hope all readers are doing great!

Things can only slow us down if we let them ...

Check out this story. See video link on the right. Very cool.

Maybe I've Been the Problem ...

... maybe I'm the one to blame.

I've been thinking, maybe I've been partly cloudy, maybe I'm the chance of rain
Maybe I'm overcast and maybe all my luck's washed down the drain

But when I look at the stars ... when I look at the stars,
When I look at the stars, I see someone else,
When I look at the stars, I feel like myself

------------------
Hey, ho faithful readers and longtime hail contemplators ... wzzzzup?

I'll tell you what's up here ... in snippet format. The official format of the DCV.

Names: Did you see that the SSA came out w/ their list of most popular baby names for 2007? There were some odd things as noted by the SSA data collectors:

1) there are seven boys names that rhyme w/ "maiden" in the Top 102: Jayden (No. 18); Aiden (No. 27); Aidan (No. 54); Jaden (No. 76); Caden (No. 92); Kaden (No. 98); & Ayden (No.102). (Then there were another 27 in the top 1000: Braden; Cayden; Jaiden; Kaiden; Aden; Caiden; Braeden; Braydon; Jaydon; Jadon; Braiden; Zayden; Jaeden; Aydan; Bradyn; Kadin; Jadyn; Kaden; Jaydin; Braedon; Aidyn; Haiden; Jaidyn; Kadyn; Jaydan; Raiden; and Adin.)

Raiden? Really? Kris & Tim ... I nominate Quayden before it gets too trendy.

2) "Neaveh" is the #36 name for girls. It's backwards for "heaven". I just wish Harry Carey had lived long enough to see this. Strangely enough, "Lleh" is not in the top 1000. Parents are pretty optimistic I guess, at first.

APD/School: He's done w/ 5th grade. Haven't gotten his report card yet, but it looks like he got straight A's all four quarters. And he was like U2 at the Grammys in his elementary school awards ceremony (thankfully w/o Bono's "expressive" Irish tongue) ... collecting 5 awards including Top Math Student in 5th grade and Top Reader of the School. He has been blessed w/ excellent teachers every step of the way. The beautiful KMD & I are so thankful that he's had such talented and caring instructors helping him get where he's at (not really that far ... only 6th grade ... pick it up son). Blog-reading teachers ... we salute you. Truly important work, it is that you do.

APD/Baseball: His team won their first tournament game tonight & it was exciting, 6-5. The tying run was on second in the bottom of the sixth, but two great plays by their SS & P won the game for them. They were 9th of 10, so having dispatched #8, they now get to face the #1 seed on Saturday. APD hasn't gotten a hit since shortly after Abner Doubleday invented the game, but he's playing good defense, having fun, & most importantly has a great attitude about it all ... so it's all good.

Softball: Dolberry's play has been erratic at best. More bad than good, I'd say. I have 6 games over the next 7 days, so maybe I'll get into a groove. Dolberry is currently putting a hurt on the bathroom scale and the scale has somehow karmaically retaliated against my poor heel & Achilles. Anyway, I think both my teams are in 3rd w/ similar records (6-4 and 6-5). About 2-3 weeks left in the spring season.

Work: Is fine.

Other things: Can't really think of anything else. Oh, I added another blog to my list of ones that have the Dolberry seal of approval. Enjoy! Hey, toodle-oo everybody! Thanks for reading!

Golf ball sized hail in Apex

Not at our house unfortunately, though. Storm just rolled through. One of the few storms I can remember that you heard coming about 90 seconds before it came. Loud winds and presumably the hail was making some noise. As it blew by here, it hailed for about 90 seconds. The biggest I could see (i.e., landed on the porch) was just over pea-sized, but not quite marble-sized. Very cool!

I know DCV readers want to know where it ranks among hailstorms that Dolberry has experienced. I rate this as the 4th best hail storm I've ever seen.

#5 Louisville, 1983? - The one that dented our station wagon & El Cueto got the insurance company to pay us for (ahem) "repairing" it. I don't really remember the storm or I'd rank it higher.

#4 Apex, 2008 - For about 45 seconds, this storm was as good as any storm. Pea-sized, but plenty of it.

#3 Apex, 2004? - Remember it nearly covered the ground. Want to say it was in March.

#2 Arnold MO, 1989? - Was visiting Ron McCann over 4th of July and there was a huge storm. Largest hail I've ever seen. Just short of golf-ball sized.

#1 Louisville, 1984? - The one that shredded our awning. That was awesome! Remember it hit right around 5pm and I tried to watch it from our front porch but got scared when the wind ripped the door out of my hands. Retreated to the basement at that point and watched out that little window by the dryer.

(Remember, graupel is not hail. The Derby Day graupel event is #1 in graupel events. 1 of 1. If I did count it as hail, I'd probably put it as #2 or #3 on this list.)

I'm going to bed now, though. Lousy poison ivy + PI medicine has made sleep pretty much a non-entity over the last two weeks. Feel sorry for me! (that's pitiful, more so than the hail countdown)

Ha. Ha. Check out video on the right.

Run for the Roses: Episode 134 (by guest blogger APD)

The Dolwicks had a very busy day on Saturday. Peak Fest, baseball, Derby party, tournament, you name it, we had it.
We started off with some BIG Spring Cleaning, outside and in.

Lawn Mowed: Check
Walk Swept: Check
My Room Cleaned: Check
Vacuumed House: Check

Next: Peak Fest AND my Heroclix tournament for a special figure AT THE SAME TIME! Problemo? Nah! Mom (a.k.a. KMD, in All-Important-PAT's words) & I dropped Dolberry off in downtown Apex for TCC booth in PF, maneuvered around traffic, and headed toward AF&G.

Heroclix Tourney: Check
Peak Fest: Check

Unfortunately, after winning once and losing once, (tourney probably had 3 games for each player) I had to forfeit because I had more on my schedule.
Next: Baseball game vs. undefeated White Sox.
I Gobbled down Wendy's, then Mom dropped me off and went to get Dolberry at PF.
In baseball, I went 0-1 w/ BB. My team was up 5-nil going into bottom of 4th w/ about 20 min. left. We Gave Up 7! Sox clean-up was up and we were up 5-3 w/ 2 outs. I was playing CF. Mr. Cleanup hits a TOWERING fly to CF. I was far back in the OF, but ball drifted over my head even w/ a dive towards it. Triple. 3 runs score. We end up losing 7-5.

Baseball: Check

Next: The biggie of the day: The 10th annual Dolwick Kentucky Derby Party.

But before that, for once in the jam-packed schedjy, we had a one-and-a-half hour break until the jam-packedness came back.
We had a smaller party than usual this year, even though it was the 10th annual. Dolberry invited three friends from EPA/NOAA/work; two of them brought family. One came over early (early meaning about 3:35) to watch STL play our national past-time. (Um, you missed the message, but we're having a party for horse racing, not baseball. We already had our baseball part of the day. See, I have it all planned out here!) Whatever the case, D-berry decided to show extra hospitality and let him in before the gates opened. Once everyone came, we hung out and ate from about 4 to about 6, (the eating started at about 5:20, of course. I could never eat for two hours.) which was when the Call to the Posts came (precisely 6:04). And we'll have MR. fancy schmancy ESPN announcer call the race... Aw, well, he bailed on me, but at least I can show you the results.

RESULTS
Winner: #20 Big Brown
Place: #5 Eight Belles*
Show: #12 DenisofCork

* = Filly

Unfortunately, I didn't want to take the time to show you the rest of the results.
Unfortunatelier, (a word I learned from my arguable favorite Christian writer, Bill Myers) that means you'll have to look them up yourself.
Unfortunateliest, the filly, Eight Belles, fell down after finishing and had to be euthanized.
Unfortunatelierer, (that one I made up myself) which is a word that is unfortunatelier than unfortunatelier, but ununfortunatelier than unfortunateliest, I have no more unfortunatelies to say (whatever that means). Confused? How unfortunate.
After the Derby, we finished dinner, then went outside. The kids, Kevin, 13, Sarah, 6, Jake, 4, brother of Sarah, and I, 11, played while the grownups, led by D-class berry (must not have tasted very good) talked about poison ivy and other stuff. After a while, the adults went inside because the mosquitoes were bad. Mosquitoes don't like my taste. They never have, and they hopefully never will. The other kids stayed outside, too. we played with tennis balls and Cherish, our dog for a long time.
When it was time for people to leave, we handed out Mom's cookies on their way out. Finally, our day was over. After taking a shower, I went to bed.

The next day was Sunday. Mom stayed home from church because she had a bad headache. Everyone in my family was tired. Mom & Dad were very tired. I was just normal tired I met my Sunday School teacher on the way in. She said, "Alex, you look like you just got out of bed."
"Actually," I replied, "I'm probably the most awake in my whole family!"





I am honored to be the first guest blogger in this archive of indescribably great blends of art, talent, and writing, and I am amazingly overjoyed that I was hand-picked by the highly esteemed, fluent, and legendary Dolberry himself.

-Alexander Paul Dolwick











Yeah, right, what fancy schmancy overrated speech do you want me to be forced to recite next?!?!?!? Some war victory speech by a leader of the French Resistance? A revealance of a Pablo Picasso painting? James Buchanan's Inaugural Address???!!!???!!!!?!?!? GIVE ME A BREAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-very sincerely, APD

Derby Picks

4 - Eight Belles
3 - Z Fortune
2 - Colonel John
1 - Pyro

Another Apex oddity

This happened early last Friday. You gotta love Apex.

As one wag has already commented ... he should have worked for the ABC station as their slogan is "Eyewitness News".

A lot going on ...

recapping quickly what you've missed if you haven't been in Dolberry's shoes lately ...

Friday: Won a softball game 18-3. Dolberry didn't do much.

Saturday: APD's first game of the year. In his very first AB in the 11-12 league he got an RBI single to put his team up 1-0, then stole 2nd. They ended up losing 8-2. He grounded out in his 2nd AB. Dolberry spent the rest of the afternoon working in the yard and coming in contact again w/ the dreaded poison ivy. Went to movie w/ youth group. Fun.

Sunday: Was 4th in line at the opening of the urgent care at 8am. Don't think I've waited in line before something opened ... since waiting for U2 tickets in college. Got my steroids. Went out to
Asheboro to see the cousins/Shelly/Chuck. Was fun, but I fell asleep while out there due to Benadryl. Others that were awake reported that it was fun.

Monday: Travelled to DC to make a presentation to the director of EPA's Office of Transportation & Air Quality. Think it went pretty well. Always fun to go to DC. Makes you feel like you're doing something important. Always nice to spend $16 dollars for a burger for lunch as well.

Tuesday: People at work were asking me who punched me in the face as PI has spread pretty much over my entire face, neck, arms, and lower legs. Both Dolberry softball and APD baseball games got rained out (thankfully, in my case).

Today: APD's team evened their record at 1-1 w/ a 4-1 victory. One of APD's teammates jacked one out of the yard which was quite impressive. APD followed him and Dolberry called for back-to-back jacks, but he grounded out instead. Still he had a walk and another SB. Good little player. He is totally not afraid of these fast pitchers ... he knows what a strike is ... and he can make contact w/ pretty much any pitch. Still needs to grow into some power, obviously.

Upcoming: I am going to spray enough Roundup through our yard this weekend to undo any good I've ever done for the environment while at EPA. I am going to spray enough Roundup to kill pretty much any organic thing w/in a 2-block area. Maybe the big maple tree will survive, but I wouldn't count on it.

Hope all is well for all DCV readers, near and far ...

So, we're driving home this evening ...

... after the beautiful KMD picked me up from the bus stop and we see a guy using a weed eater to trim along his driveway a ways ahead (50 yards top) and tbKMD says:

"That's the littlest dog I've ever seen."

She said this in reference to the weedeater. This was after she said my two choices for dinner were chicken breast sandwiches or turkey breast sandwiches. Wow.

On a more encouraging note ... APD had a baseball scrimmage and played really well. Against much faster pitchers than he'd seen in 4 season of 9-10 yr old baseball, he worked a 8 pitch walk in the first and grounded into a 5-4 FC on his 2nd AB, after hitting a line drive down the LF line that was just a few feet foul. I was impressed.

Labels and blog topics

One of the upgrades to the DCV made in our makeover from a few weeks ago was to start adding labels to blog posts. That way, you, the reader, can go straight to the topics of your interest when checking out the archive for some salient piece of Dolberry wisdom (see the "blog topics" on the left side of the page). A lot of lesser blogs don't offer this convenience.

Anyway, one of my favorite labels is "genius ideas" and I've got two more of them tonight.

1) When a network promotes a new show incessantly during an event your interested in (e.g., TBS' full blast assault w/ Frank TV during the baseball playoffs) and the show is awful and gets ratings that are surpassed by Ginzu knive infomercials, they are not allowed to take it off the air until it has aired at least as many times as thousands of commercials, guest appearances in the booth, or seemingly impromptu mentions by the broadcasters. (How's that for a sentence. Diagram that one.) For example, say there were 14,856 commercials for Temptation Island during a two-week promotional blitz, plus there were 234 mentions of the show by Joe Buck for a total just over 15,000. Thus, Fox would be required by law (Dolberry's Law) to show at least 15 episodes and take the ratings hit. I think this would curtail the every-90-seconds reminders the networks think we need.


2) In the same vein, if a developer clears out a whole bunch of trees to build a shopping center in which more than half the stores remain unoccupied (or have gone out of business) one year later ... that developer is required to clear out all his concrete and asphalt and replant the trees. OK, well, new trees. There needs to be some penalty for so badly misgauging the consumer economy w/ a useless building at the expense of useful trees. We could call it Dolberry's Law.

Tonights labels: genius ideas and ginzu knives.

The darkness has no choice before the dawn ...

Today was opening day for APD, but after a really nice start to the day (temps in the mid 70s), rain moved in around 2:00p and caused the postponement of his team's 3pm game. He's on the Braves this year. Some pictures follow.




I mowed the lawn this morning w/ my brand new Cub Cadet lawn mower. Very fun. Not much assembly required ... though I was a little confused when it told me to remove the 'mulching baffle'. The folks who write these instruction manuals are just ridiculous.

Today is 4/12. Which is the title of a really cool Switchfoot song. Lyrics follow. Enjoy!

Been having trouble staying asleep
You've been waking up at 4:12
You roll the voices over in your head
Then you try to put them neatly on the shelf
You watch the sun rise
You saw the darkness had no choice before the dawn
With your own eyes
And then you broke out laughing from a yawn

You said
I’m so sorry I’ve been so down, I
I started doubting things could ever turn around
And I began to believe that all we are is material
It’s nonsensical, (yes it is)

So you walk outside and everything’s new
You’re looking at the world with new eyes
As if you’d never seen a sky before this blue
As if you’ve never seen the sky in your whole life
And then the phone rings
As it turns out, you're already late
And now you’re wondering
Was peace just a temporary state

You’re waiting tables and parking cars
You’ve been selling cell phones at the shopping mall
And you began to believe that all you are is material
It’s nonsensical

I’m so sorry I’ve been so down
I started doubting things could ever turn around
But I still can’t believe that all we are
And that all of are dreams
Are nothing more than material
Souls aren’t built of stone, sticks and bones (repeat 12x)

The DCV Interview

The DCV was lucky to sit down this evening (via phone) with two great youngsters enjoying a Spring Break week at Disney World. Thank you to Miss A and EAB for taking some time to share their experiences thus far w/ the DCV.

Q. What's been the highlight of your trip so far?
A. Miss A: I liked the ride "Soaring". You get to fly over San Francisco in a hang glider.

Q. What's been your favorite park?
A. EAB: Animal Kingdom. There was a funny gorilla who was like "I don't want to see you." He had his back to us for a long time. Then he started peeing, for an even longer time.

Q. Has the food been good?
A. EAB: Daddy ordered 3 dinners and 3 desserts tonight. Miss A: This morning we went to the Princess Breakfast and I got autographs from Jasmine, Snow White, Sleeping Beauty, Mulan, and Belle. EAB: One of the princesses said I was a monkey. I loved the bacon, but I didn't like the cinnamon roll.

Q. Have the lines been long?
A. EAB: No. For "Soaring" you just go straight in, then stop a bit, then go.

Q. Tell me about a special experience you've had at Disney World?
A. Miss A: I was chosen to be a padawan at the Star Wars Jedi Training Facility. I got to go up on stage and be part of the show. We got to swing lightsabres and fight Darth Vader. Storm Troopers ran on the stage. It was so fun. EAB: And I got a Darth Vader outfit.

Q. What country did you like best at Epcot?
A. Miss A: I like Japan, Mexico, and especially England because they let us stay late at their restaurant so we could watch the fireworks. We've seen fireworks every night, except tonight.

Q. How the hotel been?
A. EAB: Great. We have 4 TV's. Miss A: They have three pools, one w/ waves, one shaped like a flower, and one shaped like a bowling pin.

Q. Last question. Would you recommend to someone who's never been to Disney World that they go?
A. Miss A: "Yes, they should. Everyone should go." EAB: "You should go. You can even borrow one of our TVs."

Sayonara Sarasota (after 2009)

The Goodyear (AZ) city council approved $33 million to expand the spring training facility they're building for the Indians into one that will house the Reds and the Indians. This probably signals the end of our annual pilgrimage to Sarasota.

I know as a blogger I'm expected to bloviate knowingly that either Sarasota or Goodyear elected officials screwed things up royally, but I think only time will tell. Sarasota's mayor indicated that there was doubt on whether the Reds were just posturing ...

"There has been a feeling in the community that the Reds would not leave, that they were simply threatening the city of Sarasota and they weren't going anywhere," she said. "Well, now reality has set in. They are going."

Dolberry is just a fan but it seemed clear from the beginning (2-3 years ago) that the Reds were looking to improve their position. I do think it was a good move on the part of the Reds. Ultimately, it will save them money, maybe enough for them to sign an extra early-round draftee or two next year. People in Sarasota are talking about maybe the Orioles moving into Ed Smith, but I'd give 50-1 odds on that ever happening. Peter Angelos simply isn't going to pay to play in a older, even if refurbished, park when other towns are paying teams to play in new stadiums elsewhere.

The Reds are pretty sure they'll be in Sarasota next year, but they have until August to exercise their 2009 option. I wonder how many years of cheesesteaks I can fit into that extra duffel bag I'll be bringing next year.

Softball update

Honest, I won't blog on every single softball game played this year, but tonight's was exciting. Opening night for Gold team. We led the whole way, including 11-8 going into the 7th. Unfortunately, they hit two HRs w/ two outs as part of a 7 run 7th. So, trailing 15-11, we came out w/ a walk, single (me), single, single, double, single to win it w/o even making an out.

I made a few more comical throws ... my throws are starting to resemble my golf game (everything's about 20 degrees off to the right) and a humorous diving attempt in a left field that matched last year's Derby Day track for sheer muddiness. The ball plugged about 5 feet in front of me while I slid right past it. But I did go 3 for 4, so that's a little better.

Congratulations Carrie!

Well, the tournament saved its best game for last. And I still don't understand how someone who picked Kentucky to make the final game won the tournament ... but that's what happened.

Enjoy your bragging rights for the next year (or more accurately, the 2-3 months before we forget who won). And send me your address and desired prize.

Update 2: Dolberry Invitational

It all comes down to Carrie (Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk) vs. Tim (don't call us Memphis State). Either way, Dolberry Invitational history will be made. If Tim wins, he'll be the first repeat winner. If Carrie wins, she'll be the first winner to have their national championship runner up lose in the first round (Kentucky).

The Papa John's card prize is really only for C-Lo's sake. He loves him some Papa John's. The winners are welcome to select a gift card of their own choosing. The only proviso is that it doesn't require much effort on the part of Dolberry.

Here's a great (but sad) article about the last Memphis (State) team to make the Final 4, although they were officially stricken from the records after NCAA violations. Let hope the rest of life is better for more from this year's UM team.

Shamrock Challenge

The good people over at the "Adventures of our super-fantastic babies" blog are running their 2nd annual Shamrock Challenge. The judges are awesome people. In honor of their greatness, we have their wedding metallic tulip thingy in our shamrock. (No, Dolberry does not know what metallic tulips have to do w/ getting married.) While I recall that I somehow didn't win last year, Dolberry is not the sort of guy who holds a grudge for 12 months. 10 tops. I hear there's a prize involved this year ... interesting.

Dolberry is entering his "A" shamrock this year. Enjoy!

Update on Dolberry Invitational

Thanks to all for playing this year. Six players are still alive in the race for first place. Here's the list of the lucky players and who needs what to win:

Brian T.: Kansas over UCLA
Carrie: Kansas over Memphis
Chad: Memphis over UNC
Tim: Memphis over Kansas
Dolberry!: UCLA over Kansas
Greg S.: UCLA over UNC, UNC over Memphis, UNC over UCLA

Personally, I see it coming down to Chad vs. Greg S., w/ Greg winning it all ... but I've been wrong a lot in this bracket.

Meet Your 2008 O'Jimmies

Well our softball game for tonight got rained out. Then the Hurricanes lost their regular season finale which likely means they won't make the playoffs (unless the Capitals lose tomorrow night ... and the Caps have won 10 of their last 11). If the Reds don't bounce back from this 5-2 deficit, it's going to be a pretty pitiful sports night.

Speaking of sports and pitiful, wanted to introduce you to the 2008 O'Jimmies.

Decent hitters: Reyes, Kent, Francoeur, Encarnacion, N. Johnson, Laroche, Keppinger
Not-expecting-much: Snyder, Castro, L. Gonzalez, Pagan, Gerut, Gross

Decent pitchers: Webb, Smoltz, Isringhausen, Villenueva, Volquez
Not-expecting-much: Affeldt, Gordon, Moyer, & Turnbow

The O'Jimmies have finished 1st & 2nd (of 13) over the last two years. But, as seen below, we're in 9th thus far ... I'll keep you up to date as the season progresses.

Life Episodes: April 3rd, 1974

As you'll recall the "Life Episode" segments on the DCV are reserved for those singular events that helped shape the legend that is Dolberry. 34 years ago today was one of those events. It was the Superoutbreak. 148 tornadoes in a mere 18 hours, including 6 F5's and 24 F4's. (For perspective, there's only been one U.S. F5 this decade, the Greensburg KS tornado last May.) Below is a map of the 148 twisters drawn by Dr. Ted Fujita (subject of very first DCV entry). Keen observers will note Tornado #48 ....


My first recollection of that day is that a round of severe storms rolled through Louisville around 10:30 that morning, an odd time for thunderstorms and one that foreshadowed the events to come. Dolberry was a strapping young 2nd grader at Kennedy Elementary impressing the teachers with his intellect AND his ability to avoid the lice outbreaks that were common that spring.

Rode the bus home and Mom took Kathy, Kris, Robbie Livingston, and I up to the barber shop on Patti Lane. Presumably, the prescient Dolberry had tactfully handled the haircut situation with the proper dash of complaint, because I remember we then headed to that old Ice Cream hut on Taylorsville Road. Coming out of the ice cream shop, I remember being greeted by the single blackest, most menacing cloud I had ever seen and have ever seen.

That's when things broke down a little. Mom, clearly stressed from an outing w/ four kids under eight, froze in her tracks. Dolberry, barely able to see over the steering wheel of the old Impala, had to drive the group home. Just after 4:15p, I turned on WHAS 840 on the car radio and heard John Burke of the Louisville NWS talking about how tornadoes ("tornadas" in his accent) had touched down Brandenburg and the hook echoes on the radar were heading toward Jefferson County. (Click that link above. Very cool.) While Dick Gilbert was up in Skywatch 84 avoiding "suspicious looking weather" in SW Louisville, Dolberry was flipping the radio dial around to avoid having to listen to horrid 1970s artists like B.J. Thomas and Paul Anka in between weather updates. Some have credited Dolberry for saving all five of our lives by having the composure to do this.

I rushed my mom and siblings out of the car and into our basement. Since our house was one of the few in the neighborhood w/ a basement, many of our neighbors came over to our house for safety. Dolberry had to calm many a frayed nerve exhibiting a steelyness beyond his seven years. We listened as the storm touched down right in front of the NWS forecasters eyes (Burke: "No tornado as of yet. High winds. Good gracious sake alive. There's 50 (mph winds) right there. By golly, the whole thing's going. Hear it? I'm going!") and ripped up the roof of Freedom Hall beginning a devastating F4 trek right through Louisville. (Gilbert: "It's a spectacular sight. Very black low clouds. Around Bowman Field. No definitive tornado yet ... Yes! There's one now. Dipping down. In the Highlands. Transformers have been blowing regularly.") We were down in the basement for a good 45 minutes before Dolberry ventured out to check the situation and sounded the all clear. There was another round of tornado warnings that night and we reprised the whole thing again, this time w/ a panicky El Cueto in the fold.

Anyway, it was this experience that made me want to be a meteorologist. I don't know what my life would have been like had the Superoutbreak never happened. And while it was a day upon which I can look back on my actions with pride ... I still don't like getting haircuts.

Dolberry's Law

The order of the world is established through a system of laws. Without the controlling influence of laws, it is easy to speculate that humanity would rapidly disintegrate into a chaotic mess. Laws can originate from many sources. The first ones were divine, they've been embedded in our psyches for generations. ("Love your God. Love your neighbor.") Some come through a legislative or deliberative process and their wisdom is borne out over decades. ("Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.") Some laws might be needed for a time, but circumstances eventually relegate it to obsolescence. According to dumblaws.com, in the State of Kentucky one may not dye a duckling blue and offer it for sale unless more than six are for sale at once.

Dolberry has always liked that category of "laws" that naturally spring from human observation and persist because of their truth. The most famous of these types of laws is the rather pessimistic Murphy's Law. Another famous one is Moore's Law. I've spent the last month ruminating over another law that I think could radically reshape the way sports fans watch and communicate about their passion. In typical Dolberry modesty, I propose it be called Dolberry's Law.

Dolberry's Law reads as follows: "As a sports fan, you may only claim credit for championships that were won during your lifetime and during a period in which you actively rooted for that team."

As we move into the Final Four and Opening Day of baseball season, it is perhaps fitting that we now gently admonish the two groups that I think will be most affected by Dolberry's Law, i.e., New York Yankees fans and U of K basketball fans.

When we were in Sarasota watching the Reds spank the Yankees, I overheard the following snippet from a conversation between a group of grumpy (& prolifically profane) 20-something Yankees fans ... "talk to me when you've won 26 World Series instead of four." (Actually, the Reds have won five, but I wasn't going to interject.) According to Dolberry's Law these guys are actually only entitled to take credit for four WS wins (96, 98, 99, 00). As a 41-yr old Reds fan, I'm entitled to gloat about 3 WS wins (75, 76, 90). Four vs. three is not a huge advantage, certainly not one worth boasting about.

The biggest category of fans misleadingly padding their championship stats are Wildcat basketball fans who continuously trumpet their seven titles. Unless you were born before 1950, you are not eligible to take credit for the titles in 48, 49, 51, & 58. So UK fans of my age can legitimately take credit for only three. (U of L has two over the same period.) So the next time you run across a UK fan, watch out for them drooling chewing tobacco on your shoes and admonish them with Dolberry's Law if they try to take credit for championships won when a whole race of Americans weren't even allowed to participate in the sport.

And just so Dolberry is not accused of making the law for his own use, please realize that I'm losing credit for Saint Louis University's all-time leading 10 soccer titles between 1959 and 1973. Using the "actively rooted" section of Dolberry's Law, I would only be eligible for any titles that the glorious Billikens won that one Saturday night I rode a bus out to some crazily far away western St. Louis suburb to watch a 0-0 tie. (Actually, Dolberry was probably only eligible for maybe 10 minutes of the 90 minutes of gameplay.)

C-A-R-D-S!

Softball is underway!

We won our 1st game (18-15). I didn't do too well (0-3, but got on twice on errors) & I made one horrendous throw trying to get a guy out at home from SS on an OF relay. It's a long season.

Annual DCV Blog Bracket Challenge

Please join in. Free entry. One entry per player. Try to come up w/ a creative name ... that is more so than "Smith Entry". To the winner: a $25 Papa John's gift card.

Here are the instructions ... near as I can tell. Let me know if any problems. Enjoy.

Get in the action now:
http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/group?groupID=38038

Game Front:
http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/frontpage

Group: Dolberry Cherry Vanilla
Password: billikens

Vacation Review - Spring Training 2008

Hey, as always, we had a great time on our Spring Training trip. For those that weren't there, here are the highlights:

Wed: There was a little anxiety getting ready for the trip as APD was sick, having missed school on both Monday and Tuesday. By Wed, he was feeling well enough to travel and apparently to infect perfectly healthy members of the traveling party (see Dolberry, Sunday). We had an easy trip down to Sarasota when the first of the more-than-usual vacation bugs bit ... I'd booked a different Comfort Suites than I had the past straight 5 years. Oh well, not a huge deal. Drove an extra 10 miles or so, but accommodations were just as nice. Also, I walloped APD and the beautiful KMD in our annual putt-putt game by an embarassingly (to them) large margin.

Thurs: Always fun to celebrate the beautiful KMD's birthday ... walking on eggshells all day not to mention a certain number (this year, 46); or use any of the following terms: "grizzled veteran", "retirement home", or "ol' lady". We picked up El Cueto and Grandma Cueto at their usual flea-infested hotel in Tampa and headed down to Sarasota for a Reds-Yankees game. APD got a ton of autographs: Eric Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Dusty Bakey, Jeff Keppinger, and others. The Reds scored 6 runs in the first on an EE grand slam en route to a 12-8 victory. The picture at the top is from Day 1. We then retired back to the hotel (where there was another snafu upon registering) and had a lovely dinner w/ Angela and the Twins. Fell asleep before my head hit the pillow.

Fri: El Cueto had us out of bed at 5:15a to go play golf. It was the least fun round of golf I have ever played thanks to: a) my complete inability to hit a golf ball in the proper direction and b) a course starter who had apparently taken customer service training from a WWII German cable company. Dolberry thinks only Eliot Spitzer has gotten more grief on an recent investment than my $130 outlay to get scolded by a bitter Florida retiree. The game against the Pirates was far more pleasant. The Reds burst out to a big lead again on a Brandon Phillips bomb & we got to see Johnny Cueto (the next great starting pitcher) absolutely dominate 10 Pirate hitters over three innings. Got to meet our favorite Florida State House Democrat for dinner and APD had a blast playing w/ the Twins in the hotel pool (approximate pool temp ... 73 deg ... brrrrr.)

Sat: Dolberry had a weird episode in the morning packing hotel bags. My back locked up quite painfully. I guess it was a back spasm. It did get me out of carrying bags down to the car which was nice. Apparently, taking 126 golf shots in a 3.75 hour period can wear your back out. Then, we drove down to Ft. Myers to watch the Red Sox play the Marlins. Interestingly enough, Josh Beckett came out to pitch before, he too, was felled by back spasms. The Fish won 5-2 despite a Jacoby Ellsbury HR. APD got Hanley Ramirez' autograph which was very cool. We drove back to Clearwater that night and actually checked into a hotel uneventfully. Had shrimp linguini at the Bahama Breeze which I will mention more about in the Sun section.

Sun: Around 2a, Dolberry spent his first moments of 2008 Daylight Savings time participating in the fun experience throwing up a full plate of shrimp linguini. I bet I was one of the first Americans to vomit in Daylight Savings Time this year. So, I have that going for me. Of course, Dolberry's first thoughts were not for himself, but for the the annual Phillies game Philly Cheesesteaks I was planning to enjoy in less than 10 hours. I devoted myself to a cautious but arduous set of stomach-relaxing techniques to prepare my digestive system for the meaty bliss of a La Spada's cheesesteak. After watching BP in the outfield, and catching a ball thrown up by a shagging outfielder (the other kind of "thrown up"), we settled into our seats. BTW, it was extremely cold in Florida the last two days of our visit. Disturbingly cold. Colder than it ever has been in past vacations. Cold and windy. Cold enough, that I think the Florida House should do something about it. Of course, like all good blog entries this one has a happy ending. I ate one cheesesteak (they're even better when their warmth warms you) and then devoured another one a few innings later and I didn't get sick the whole 11 hour ride back to Raleigh. Dolberry has the strength of 12 men.


Great vacation as always. Due to the people we spent it with (excepting that starter), I give it 5 stars.

2008 NL Roto Preview: New York Mets

New York Mets: The Mets had a collapse for the ages last year ... one we'll be talking about 20 years from now (assuming we haven't all purchased sports-trash-talking robots by then). On Dolberry Day last year (Sept 10), the Mets were sitting pretty at 82 - 61, six full games clear of the Phillies. Here are some of the quotes from Mets players as their ship slowly took on water.

9/10: "We couldn't have picked a better time than this to peak. This is the best baseball we've played all season." (David Wright)

9/12: "We're obviously in the driver's seat and we want to close it out as soon as we can and focus on the postseason." (Shawn Green)

9/16: "How many errors did we make? Five? Six? You have to play defense, too. They deserved to beat us." (Carlos Beltran)

9/17: "That's not how we play the game. Hopefully we'll get out of it -- the sooner the better." (Omar Minaya)

9/18: "Anybody with half a brain would say we've been horrible." (Tom Glavine)

9/20: "Things are not going our way. It seems like every team comes back on us real easy." (Carlos Beltran)

9/24: "It's embarrassing with the season on the line to go out there and get embarrassed on your own home field." (David Wright)

9/26: "We all feel terrible for ourselves as a team right now that we can't really close the deal." (Willie Randolph)

9/28: "I think it's embarrassing. It's pretty pathetic that we have this division within our grasp with seven home games and we can't find a way to win one of them. It's a bad feeling." (David Wright)

9/30: "The harder we pushed, the worse it got." (Billy Wagner)

The Mets rank 30th on my list of favorite MLB teams, so I can't say I didn't enjoy reliving that experience. Anyway, here's what they look like this year.

C: Mike Schneider / Ramon Castro - Pass on Schneider. Castro is an O'Jimmie and the better fantasy player but he seems to be best suited for about 200-250 ABs per season. We should probably keep him w/ his bargain salary ($1).

1B: Carlos Delgado - He was banged up all last year and hits stats nosedived. Would look like a bounceback candidate but his already getting MRI's down in Florida. Likely pass. AVAIL.

2B: Luis Castillo - 32 years old w/ fading stats over the past 2-3 years. Best case scenario would appear to be above average AVG/OBP & 20 SB. AVAIL.

SS: Jose Reyes - Roto MVP runner-up. (.280/.354/12/57/78) Didn't do anything other then steal bags after coming to the O'Jimmies at the all-start break, but contributed to our 2nd place finish (good and bad). Only 24, expect a better AVG/OBP/HRs in 2008 w/ SBs down slightly (50-60). O'JIMMIES keep despite hefty salary.

3B: David Wright - Great player. Seems like he's been on the Wonderboys since he was 12 years old. WOND keep.

LF: Moises Alou - One of the few remaining MLB'ers older than Dolberry. Solid year last year, but 41-yr old quad muscles limited him to just 320 ABs. AVAIL.

CF: Carlos Beltran - One of the more up & down rotisserie superstars. Was a 5-category player last year, but knee surgery in offseason could reduce him to 4 cats. FOWL doubtful keep?

RF: Ryan Church - 29 yrs old. Sustained a Grade 2 concussion in a spectacular collision yesterday. Assuming he recovers from that quickly, he looks to get about 400-500 ABs as Mets primary RF. Solid Roto OF. MOJO keeper.

SP1: Johan Santana - His stats over the last 4 years can cause a Roto managers pulse to quicken. Moving to a very good pitchers park & plays on a team that should win 85-90 games. May set a record for auction price for a starting pitcher. $45 is not out of the question. Hopefully will have a bad spring to scare some NL'ers off. AVAIL.

SP2: Pedro Martinez - Pedro was one of the few Mets that performed well last September, going 3-1 w/ 32Ks in 28IP w/ a 2.57. The only downside was that he was more hittable than he's ever been (33 hits in those 28 IP). I'm chalking that up to small sample size and expect him to have a decent year ... IF his shoulder holds up. Doubtful SQZZ keeper.

SP3: John Maine - Very good, mostly overlooked SP. BARF keeper.

SP4: Oliver Perez - Maybe the least predictable pitcher in the game. Only 26, here are his WHIP in his six MLB seasons (2002-2007): 1.32, 1.63, 1.15, 1.67, 1.76, 1.31. High risk/reward here. Is in his contract year, if you are the cynical type. AVAIL?

SP5: El Duque or Mike Pelfrey - El Duque has only pitched over 200 IP once in his career (1999). He's claiming to be 39, but I'm guessing he's probably not counting years from the 1960s. Having foot issues this spring. Likely SQZZ keeper. Pelfrey is a one-time prospect who had a BB:K ratio near 1 last year. Only 23 but has a long way to go before he's a pitcher worth having on your roto roster. AVAIL.

CLS: Billy Wagner - Not the best closer in the NL like he was from 2001-2005, but he's still in the Top 5. JUST keep?

Alt CLS: Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez: If Heilman compiled the stats he has over the past 3 years on a team that didn't have a closer like Wagner, he'd have been crowned a "closer" and his salary would be about 10x higher than his current setup guy salary. Sanchez will have to show he's over shoulder surgery in Spring Training. AH may be a JUST keeper.

Bench: Damion Easley, Olmedo Saenz, Brady Clark, Endy Chavez: Easley and Saenz can both really torment a portsider. Clark's an OK 4th-5th OF. Chavez is a one-category player (AVG). Probably pass on all these guys, but one of them may get some serious playing time if Delgado is down for a large chunk of the season.

Prospects: Most of them were traded for Johan Santana. Best prospect is Fernando Martinez, but he's only 19 and probably not worth a reserve pick this year.

Injured: The Mets have a whole bunch of injured players right now. Wright, Reyes, and Alou are the only starting lineup guys that are healthy right now. A situation to be monitored.

Dolberry's Musings on the Mets: I do not like the Mets. This antipathy dates back to my days at SLU when I got caught up in that era's tempestuous Mets - Cardinals rivalry. There are too many Mets fans on my various softball teams. This fall I'm capping it at two. And they have to sit at the end of the bench. Out of earshot, if that's even possible for a Mets fan.

What it means for the O'Jimmies: We had too many Mets last year (Glavine, Reyes, Castro, Conine, & Feliciano). Not surprisingly when the Mets tanked in September ... so did the O'Jimmies ... dropping from 1st to 2nd in the last week of the season. I think we should cap them at two this year (Reyes & Castro). Johan would be nice, but he'll be too expensive.

2008 NL Roto Preview: Florida Marlins

Florida Marlins: 71 wins last year and traded their primary offensive threat. (Sniff, sniff, we will miss you Miguel.) Got their new stadium approved this week, so may actually start keeping players past the age of 25 at some point. Will be changing name to Miami Marlins in 2010.

C: Mike Rabelo - 28 & hasn't really hit at any level. Came over in the Detroit trade. Pass. AVAIL (topper).

1B: Mike Jacobs - Should be hitting his prime. HRs are his only above avg category & is unlikely he'll hit more than 20-25. AVAIL.

2B: Dan Uggla - Very similar to Jacobs. Stats should be pretty predictable. Will hurt you in AVG/OBP, but give you ~ 25 HRs. GOODF keep.

SS: Hanley Ramirez - 2007 Roto MVP. (.332/.390/29/88/51) Wow! Only 25, but expect stats to regress slightly just 'cause they can't get much better. HAZE keep.

3B: Jose Castillo, Dallas McPherson, Jorge Cantu - Likely to be decided during spring training. Not much here. Castillo probably has the edge and had a decent winter league, but he's been a big zero through 4 MLB years. McPherson's got power but K's a ton & missed all last year. Cantu is ok, but his "D" at 3B is suspect. Pass on all 3. AVAIL (Castillo - JUST keeper?).

LF: Josh Willingham - Reasonable roto OF. RBI's dampened by rest of Marlins. AVAIL.

CF: Cameron Maybin, Cody Ross - Maybin is one of the best prospects in the game. A true 5-category stud. But he's only 20 and he did struggle in 50 MLB ABs last year. By 23, he will probably be an all-star, but how much you want to pay for him now is unclear. Cody Ross had a great two months last year, but they look out of place w/ the rest of his career. AVAIL (Ross - BSOX keeper?).

RF: Jeremy Hermida - Still only 24. Seemed to figure it out after the all-star break last year (.230 pre-, .340 -post). Look for breakout year here. BSOX keeper.

SP1: Scott Olsen - Was awful last year on all counts. He especially seemed to give up after the all-star break. Unclear how much of the deterioration was his attitude (which appears to be even worse than his stats). Either way, not much point drafting him or any other Marlin starter. AVAIL.

SP2: Sergio Mitre - Gets by on guile. Shortest Marlin starter at 6'3". (The Marlins probably would have the best basketball team rotation.) Not much to recommend here. AVAIL.

SP3: Andrew Miller - Was pitching for Tar Heels just two years ago. Big time prospect who struggled in 60 IP in Detroit last year. The Marlins can let him learn the ropes for a few years & hope he's ready by 2010 when they're ready to contend. AVAIL.

SP4: Mark Hendrickson - T.J. Simers (funny columnist from L.A. Times) calls him "The Big Stiff" which pretty much describes his 6-year MLB career (career ERA > 5.00) AVAIL.

SP5: Rick VandenHurk, Ricky Nolasco - VandenHurk K's about a guy an inning, but is hit hard otherwise. Only 22 and from the Netherlands, so still could develop. Probably should be coverted to a reliever, though. Nolasco doesn't look draftable. AVAIL (RVH BARF keep?).

CLS: Kevin Gregg - Solid closer. Nice K-rate. Highest paid Marlin (2.5 mil) BSOX keep.

Alt CLS: Justin Miller: Miller came back from Japan w/ a new propensity for K's. His K rate last year was equal to Billy Wagner & Derrick Turnbow. Pitched well for O'Jimmies at end of year. K:BB is around 3. Matt Lindstrom also had a decent year for a 'pen that was surprisingly good (Gardner, Tankersley, etc.). Hard to say which one would step up if Gregg went down or was traded.

Bench: Alfredo Amezaga, Jorge Piedra - Amezaga is cheap speed at best. Piedra probably will only get 150 ABs, mostly as a PH, but they should be decent ABs.

Prospects: Chris Volstad - SP, another tall Marlin SP (6'7"), probably arriving in late 2008. Great control for a young pitcher, but didn't K that many last year and was hittable.

Injured: Anibel Sanchez - SP, - Already had a setback w/ his return from shoulder surgery. Not expected to return until July and maybe later than that.

Dolberry's Musings on the Marlins: APD once got to run out to right field w/ Marlins RF Jeremy Hermida when he played for the Carolina Mudcats (Marlins AA club). That was one of Dolberry's better efforts as a youth leader getting that set up. Carolina Mudcats games are fun to attend. In my mind, they are way better than Durham Bulls games.

To me, D-Bulls games diminish the baseball w/ all the between-inning entertainment and other distractions. I realize how snobbish this sounds by the way. But it just seems especially incongruent at the DBAP. You're in this increasingly cool, revitalized Durham environment, but inside the stadium has a very Cary/Apex feel. I'm all for family-friendly ... it just seems forced somehow w/ the Bulls. Plus, I hate/loath/despise Y-M-C-A. It's probably just me, because their attendance is solid every year.

In contrast, the Mudcats play out in the middle of nowhere (Zebulon NC, actually) & there's generally no more than 3K in attendance, but you can hear the crack of the bat & you can sit in the first row & some people can yell out at the players (We Love You Teddy Bear!) loud enough to irritate everyone in a 20-mile radius. Despite the last item, I just like Mudcat games better.

What it means for the O'Jimmies: Not much given that Ramirez, Gregg, and Hermida likely won't be available. Any team leaving the draft counting on more than 2 Marlins is probably in trouble. Maybin and Miller are attractive as prospects, esp. Maybin. Justin Miller is probably worth a buck as an O'Jimmy keeper, but presumably you could get him for a buck again in the draft, so what's the point?

2008 NL roto preview: Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves: Finished 3rd last year. 5 games back of the Phillies. Have a good young core of position players entering their prime. Many question marks in the starting rotation. Should contend in the NL East.

C: Brian McCann - Only 24. Stats took a tumble last year, but still was a top 3 catcher in the NL. Only 24. Should improve. AVAIL (topper).

1B: Mark Texiera - Dependable middle-of-the-order run producer. Hit an otherwordly .509 w/ runners in scoring position last year. AVAIL.

2B: Kelly Johnson - Former O'Jimmy who blossomed last year. Wore down a little in Sept. which depressed his final stats. BARF keep.

SS: Yunel Escobar - Exceptional rookie season. Improved as year went along. Not much pop now, but could come. EMPIRE keep.

3B: Chipper Jones - Still one of the best players in baseball when healthy. At 36, durability not likely to improve, but 350-400 exceptional AB are guaranteed. JUST keeper.

LF: Matt Diaz - Some uncertainty here. May platoon Diaz w/ Brandon Jones or Josh Anderson. Diaz pounds LHP, mediocre vs RHP. JUST keep?

CF: Mark Kotsay - Coming off back surgery. Reportedly healthy. 32 years old. Last good fantasy season was 2004. Don't see much here. AVAIL.

RF: Jeff Francouer - Only 24. Good power, OBP liability. Expect his HRs to increase and should have RBI opps aplenty. AVAIL (topper).

SP1: Tim Hudson - 3rd season in ATL was best by far. Good bet to win 15 games w/ above average ERA/WHIP. GOODF keep?

SP2: John Smoltz - Future Hall-of-Famer, Lifetime WHIP ~ 1.15. Still K's 6-7 per game. How long can he keep it up? O'JIMMIES keep.

SP3: Tom Glavine - Watched him alot last year as an O'Jimmy. If he can't get batters to chase offspeed/away, he has nothing else. May get wins but will hurt your WHIP/ERA. AVAIL.

SP4: Mike Hampton - Missed 2.5 seasons w/ elbow problems. Then hurt his hammy during 1st inning of winter ball. Reportedly healthy now. Never a big K guy & always walks too many. Intriguing though for $1 on this team. O'JIMMIES keep?

SP5: Jo-Jo Reyes, Chuck James, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Bennett - The Braves think all 4 of these guys are MLB pitchers. James may not be ready on Opening Day. Jurrjens is the big time prospect but needs development (only 21). Bennett will probably end up in the pen. Reyes then should get a shot. Didn't impress last year in limited duty, but minor league success and Bobby Cox are in his corner. Reyes & James are possible HAZE keepers.

CLS: Rafael Soriano - VERY solid closer. BSOX keep.

Alt CLS: Peter Moylan, Mike Gonzalez: Gonzalez is a stud when healthy. Looking good in ST but not expected back until June. Moylan's a decent set up guy.

Bench: Brandon Jones - 24 year old. Athletic w/ power/speed. Solid stats in AA/AAA. Improving. Longshot to be a breakout fantasy pick in 2008.

Bench: Josh Anderson - Cheap speed. 40 SB in AAA. Not much else.

Prospects: Jordan Schaefer - CF, probably in 2009. 20/20 potential. Profiles similar to Kotsay, IMO.

Dolberry's Musings on the Braves: I've always liked Chipper Jones. He was one of the first players ever drafted by the short-lived Candolwick Clarks (Stephen & my roto team in Chicago). As many of you know, APD was called Lil' Chipper when he was in his fetal stage. His career has followed the typical 5-stage superstar arc:

1) highly hyped as a young player "the next Ernie Banks" (92-94),
2) highly praised in first few years (95-98),
3) period of "being taken down a few notches" due to just-noticed defiencies (e.g., infidelity, attitude) in his prime years (99-03),
4) a period of generally unnoticed excellence (04-07) ... since June 2006 Chipper leads the MLB w/ a .350 avg and a 653 slugging percentage which is amazing.
5) this year or next, he will be entering into the "glorified elder statesman" stage (aka "the Favreal stage"). This is usually marked by a decline in statistical performance, but an odd increase in favorable attention.

What it means for the O'Jimmies: The Braves should easily win 80 games, which makes players in their lineup attractive for the team-based stats (wins, saves, RBI) as well as whatever they might do individually. McCann will likely be overpriced due to position scarcity. Teixeira is a reasonable power pick. Francouer is less reasonable. I'd pass on Kotsay, Glavine, and whoever gets the 5th starter job. Just have to hope Smoltzie stays a productive O'Jimmy yet again and that Hampton stays healthy and can fill the $1 SP who doesn't hurt you too bad slot (see Moyer, Jamie). Gonzalez would be a good reserve pick.

What I did on my blogging vacation

Yo yo bloggafficianados, what is happening?!?

(awkward silence)

Right, this isn't an interactive medium. A little rusty here.

It seems we all have only a finite amount of energy to spend in a day. We make choices as to how we expend that energy. Obviously, Dolberry hasn't been investing his energy on the DCV (or any other blog, for that matter). Most of my energy seems to be going to work lately, which seems strange to say. Anyway, almost all of my projects are going well (i.e., almost finished), so hopefully that devotion will be on the wane shortly.

Also, I've been trying to get in shape. Have been exercising a lot and eating less, but I haven't dropped much weight. Think there's some sort of muscle-to-fat thing going on ... yeah, let's go w/ that. I did do an unintentional daylong triathlon on President's Day, running 3 miles at 9p on Sunday night, swimming 1 mile at 9a Monday, & biking 15 miles at 1p Monday. Anyway, this exercising thing seems to take more out of me than it used to take (and certainly more than the sitting I'd grown too accustomed to doing).

I've been following the election somewhat closely. Either way it turns out, I think we'll have a really good President. There are multiple good choices. I was thinking about making the DCV a purely political blog. Here's the sort of priceless witticisms you would get on a political DCV.

• The Democrats say they want to bring the troops home next year, but say that McCain is ok w/ them staying for 100 years. Now Dolberry is not a military strategist by any means, but I don't think those troops are going to be particularly effective when they're 125. I side w/ the Dems on this issue. Once you hit retirement age, you should be able to come home.

• I side w/ the Reps on this one, though. If I understand it, the surge isn't working because the goal of it was to buy the fledgling Iraqi legislature time to take the necessary steps to form an effective working government. Hillary said they've taken small steps, but they've haven't shown enough progress to warrant the U.S. staying there. Dolberry is just thankful that there's no stabilizing third-party basing their support to our country based on the productiveness of our representatives in D.C. (Roger Clemens hearings notwithstanding).

Ahh ... I'll leave the political arena to people better suited for it ... like Rush Limbaugh or the New York Times. There's two institutions that know better and care more about America than Dolberry (or anyone else, for that matter).

What else ... of course it's the time of year where I start to work (& it is work) on fantasy baseball preparation. I'm in a Diamond Mind league where the draft has started and we're only a few weeks from El Cueto's and Dolberry's O'Jimmies draft. So, over the next few weeks I'll be blogging on the upcoming 2008 NL season ... that way I'll be blogging and doing the necessary legwork to be ready for Rotisserie. In Michael Scott, terms that is a win-win-win. So, Atlanta Braves you are up tomorrow.

Anyway, I hope all you guys are doing GRR ... GRR ... GRRRR ... ate.

Great article

Sorry I haven't been posting much lately. All is well w/ the Dolberrys.

Here's a REALLY cool article on baseball, if you're into such things. By far, the best piece of writing I've ever seen on espn.com and it has nothing to do w/ Brian McNamee, Andy Pettitte, or Roger Clemens' nanny.

Have a great week!

Fun Weekend

Friday: Off from work. Did my first double workout of the year (ran 2 miles, swam 1000 yds). Picked APD up from school and went here and then to the U2 3D movie. Dolberry's review: Excellent. Awesome music. Cool effects.

Saturday: Went out to Asheboro for a combined IM/APD b-day party. Got to play Guitar Hero for the first time. I pretty much rock at it, esp. "Cherub Rock" and "I Ran". IM came back to our house for a sleepover & brought his Playstation 2 with him which was fun.

Sunday: Biked home from church ... always fun. Then, we had our own mini-Super Bowl party w/ the orange dip and chips, plus chicken wings. Mmmmm, very good. The game was worth watching, which was nice.

Hope everyone else's was equally as nice.

30 days 'til Spring Training.