2008 NL Roto Preview: New York Mets

New York Mets: The Mets had a collapse for the ages last year ... one we'll be talking about 20 years from now (assuming we haven't all purchased sports-trash-talking robots by then). On Dolberry Day last year (Sept 10), the Mets were sitting pretty at 82 - 61, six full games clear of the Phillies. Here are some of the quotes from Mets players as their ship slowly took on water.

9/10: "We couldn't have picked a better time than this to peak. This is the best baseball we've played all season." (David Wright)

9/12: "We're obviously in the driver's seat and we want to close it out as soon as we can and focus on the postseason." (Shawn Green)

9/16: "How many errors did we make? Five? Six? You have to play defense, too. They deserved to beat us." (Carlos Beltran)

9/17: "That's not how we play the game. Hopefully we'll get out of it -- the sooner the better." (Omar Minaya)

9/18: "Anybody with half a brain would say we've been horrible." (Tom Glavine)

9/20: "Things are not going our way. It seems like every team comes back on us real easy." (Carlos Beltran)

9/24: "It's embarrassing with the season on the line to go out there and get embarrassed on your own home field." (David Wright)

9/26: "We all feel terrible for ourselves as a team right now that we can't really close the deal." (Willie Randolph)

9/28: "I think it's embarrassing. It's pretty pathetic that we have this division within our grasp with seven home games and we can't find a way to win one of them. It's a bad feeling." (David Wright)

9/30: "The harder we pushed, the worse it got." (Billy Wagner)

The Mets rank 30th on my list of favorite MLB teams, so I can't say I didn't enjoy reliving that experience. Anyway, here's what they look like this year.

C: Mike Schneider / Ramon Castro - Pass on Schneider. Castro is an O'Jimmie and the better fantasy player but he seems to be best suited for about 200-250 ABs per season. We should probably keep him w/ his bargain salary ($1).

1B: Carlos Delgado - He was banged up all last year and hits stats nosedived. Would look like a bounceback candidate but his already getting MRI's down in Florida. Likely pass. AVAIL.

2B: Luis Castillo - 32 years old w/ fading stats over the past 2-3 years. Best case scenario would appear to be above average AVG/OBP & 20 SB. AVAIL.

SS: Jose Reyes - Roto MVP runner-up. (.280/.354/12/57/78) Didn't do anything other then steal bags after coming to the O'Jimmies at the all-start break, but contributed to our 2nd place finish (good and bad). Only 24, expect a better AVG/OBP/HRs in 2008 w/ SBs down slightly (50-60). O'JIMMIES keep despite hefty salary.

3B: David Wright - Great player. Seems like he's been on the Wonderboys since he was 12 years old. WOND keep.

LF: Moises Alou - One of the few remaining MLB'ers older than Dolberry. Solid year last year, but 41-yr old quad muscles limited him to just 320 ABs. AVAIL.

CF: Carlos Beltran - One of the more up & down rotisserie superstars. Was a 5-category player last year, but knee surgery in offseason could reduce him to 4 cats. FOWL doubtful keep?

RF: Ryan Church - 29 yrs old. Sustained a Grade 2 concussion in a spectacular collision yesterday. Assuming he recovers from that quickly, he looks to get about 400-500 ABs as Mets primary RF. Solid Roto OF. MOJO keeper.

SP1: Johan Santana - His stats over the last 4 years can cause a Roto managers pulse to quicken. Moving to a very good pitchers park & plays on a team that should win 85-90 games. May set a record for auction price for a starting pitcher. $45 is not out of the question. Hopefully will have a bad spring to scare some NL'ers off. AVAIL.

SP2: Pedro Martinez - Pedro was one of the few Mets that performed well last September, going 3-1 w/ 32Ks in 28IP w/ a 2.57. The only downside was that he was more hittable than he's ever been (33 hits in those 28 IP). I'm chalking that up to small sample size and expect him to have a decent year ... IF his shoulder holds up. Doubtful SQZZ keeper.

SP3: John Maine - Very good, mostly overlooked SP. BARF keeper.

SP4: Oliver Perez - Maybe the least predictable pitcher in the game. Only 26, here are his WHIP in his six MLB seasons (2002-2007): 1.32, 1.63, 1.15, 1.67, 1.76, 1.31. High risk/reward here. Is in his contract year, if you are the cynical type. AVAIL?

SP5: El Duque or Mike Pelfrey - El Duque has only pitched over 200 IP once in his career (1999). He's claiming to be 39, but I'm guessing he's probably not counting years from the 1960s. Having foot issues this spring. Likely SQZZ keeper. Pelfrey is a one-time prospect who had a BB:K ratio near 1 last year. Only 23 but has a long way to go before he's a pitcher worth having on your roto roster. AVAIL.

CLS: Billy Wagner - Not the best closer in the NL like he was from 2001-2005, but he's still in the Top 5. JUST keep?

Alt CLS: Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez: If Heilman compiled the stats he has over the past 3 years on a team that didn't have a closer like Wagner, he'd have been crowned a "closer" and his salary would be about 10x higher than his current setup guy salary. Sanchez will have to show he's over shoulder surgery in Spring Training. AH may be a JUST keeper.

Bench: Damion Easley, Olmedo Saenz, Brady Clark, Endy Chavez: Easley and Saenz can both really torment a portsider. Clark's an OK 4th-5th OF. Chavez is a one-category player (AVG). Probably pass on all these guys, but one of them may get some serious playing time if Delgado is down for a large chunk of the season.

Prospects: Most of them were traded for Johan Santana. Best prospect is Fernando Martinez, but he's only 19 and probably not worth a reserve pick this year.

Injured: The Mets have a whole bunch of injured players right now. Wright, Reyes, and Alou are the only starting lineup guys that are healthy right now. A situation to be monitored.

Dolberry's Musings on the Mets: I do not like the Mets. This antipathy dates back to my days at SLU when I got caught up in that era's tempestuous Mets - Cardinals rivalry. There are too many Mets fans on my various softball teams. This fall I'm capping it at two. And they have to sit at the end of the bench. Out of earshot, if that's even possible for a Mets fan.

What it means for the O'Jimmies: We had too many Mets last year (Glavine, Reyes, Castro, Conine, & Feliciano). Not surprisingly when the Mets tanked in September ... so did the O'Jimmies ... dropping from 1st to 2nd in the last week of the season. I think we should cap them at two this year (Reyes & Castro). Johan would be nice, but he'll be too expensive.