I've had enough cold & I am outta here!

Day 3 of the water heater strike brought 55 deg F water which was a vast improvement over yesterday's 33 F. Looks like even warmer water can be expected tomorrow morning. The water heater strike came only 6 days after our car heater strike. Heat is an expensive commodity in the winter.

So, I'm headed out to the desert Southwest for the 89th annual American Meteorological Society meeting next week in sunny Phoenix. Forecast temps are in the 70s all week. Presumably, the Airport Marriott will have heated showers (they have a heated pool anyway, which is good enough for me). And I'll be hearing about global warming all week, so that should by toasty nice.

I'll try to blog along the way, but if not, stay warm out there.

Record highs in Raleigh ... ain't no big deal anymore

In an effort to stave off boredom the other day, I looked at some of the climatological data on the RDU NWS site. It had seemed to me that we had record highs quite often in 2007. The data bore that out.

There were 33 days w/ record highs in 2007. This is considering a record period from 1944 through 2007. So in that 64 year period, all things being equal, one would expect to get (366/64, or 5.7)record highs every year. One oddity though, days in which the record high is a tie (temps are measured to nearest integer) are attributed to the most recent year. So, one would expect the more recent years to have more record highs due to this artifact. I've looked at the 2007 records at RDU and most of them are not ties, but actual records. As you can see the 33 record highs for the year is not only 27 more than usual, but 14 more than we've ever seen before. On average, every 11th day was a record high in Raleigh. Wow.

I've also looked at the record lows at RDU. Same as above ... it's a 64 year record and ties go to the most recent year. Over the last 6 years, in a period in which we should have gotten about 34-35 record lows, we've gotten only 6 (just one in 2007, a chilly 27 deg F on 4/8). Record lows have been very uncommon in this area over the last 6 years. Most record lows at RDU are from the time period 1960-1985. It's supposed to get quite cold here over the next few days, but the forecasts are that we won't get w/in 5 deg F of any records.

So, the odds this year of getting a record high on any given day were 1 in ~11; the odds of getting a record low were 1 in 366.

Why is this happening. Some potential reasons:

1) It's possible that the monitor itself changed or was moved at some time over this 64 year period, perhaps to some place warmer. I don't think that happened, but cannot say for sure.

2) Certainly, the landuse patterns around the airport have changed dramatically over the last 20-30 years. Rapid development in the Triangle has appreciably reduced the amount of forested area in this part of Central NC. Most of this former forest has been replaced by urban devices like asphalt or concrete. This may be leading to a bigger heat island effect around the RDU site (& area as a whole).

3) Maybe it's a symptomatic of global warming. According to NCDC, 2007 was on pace (thru November) of being the 8th warmest year (of the last 100 or so) in the U.S. and the 5th warmest (since 1880) globally.

Oh well, it's a complicated issue and the record highs in Raleigh may not mean anything, other than it was an abnormally warm year here. Interestingly, ozone air pollution was quite low in Raleigh this year. Ozone forms on high temperature days, but it appears as if the control programs that EPA, States, industry, and the population at large have agreed to and implemented have had their intended effect. I suspect that if the same cooperation could be applied to the global climate change subject, we would see the same results.

Hope everyone has a great 2008.

Why I'm posting more lately ...

One reason ... more T-giving food for me.

I noticed last year during the holidays that many of my conversations w/ assorted family members were shortened because of the advance notice on all-things-Dolberry provided by the blog. As a result, I was able to eat about 15% more than usual because of the less time wasted w/ unfilling small talk. So, w/ T-giving coming up (T minus 10 days), here's some additional Dolberry-related stuff. I will not be repeating these next week. Thank you for your consideration.

Dolberry has been very busy & has not had a chance to follow college football at all this year. I will not be prepared to talk at all about this next week, so there's no sense even bringing individual teams or games up.

I do expect to be able to follow college basketball though. That was really funny that UK lost to Gardiner-Webb. I will gladly entertain any conversations about how a team that lost to UNC by 53 last year could stomp UK at home. That is, as long as we're in line for more food. Not when I'm eating, please.

Work is fine. If you're a Republican, rest assured EPA is doing all that we can to ensure that all those aging hippies and wannabe Socialists don't ruin the American economy through some sort of sensible global climate change action. If you're a Democrat, rest assured EPA is doing all that we can to combat global warming by creating numerous and conflicting groups, divisions, and offices to design and promote sensible climate change action.

Softball is over. We won the championship. Dolberry will talk about this as long as you want. In fact, I'll go ahead and bring our scorebook. We can go at-bat by at-bat through our 15 game regular season and three-game tournament sweep. We can do this while the underlings are doing the dishes.

APD is fine. As far as I know, he will be available for questions. All he eats is bread anyway and he talks w/ his mouth full, so it's not really an issue w/ him.

I'm not on speaking terms w/ our dog, Cherish. I took her out for a run this Saturday over to the Lake. She ran about 0.25 miles than sat down and refused to take another step. Even a step back toward the car. I had to carry the stupid beast all the way back to the car. The beautiful KMD hypothesized that it was her dinner time and that she didn't feel like running as a result. Once home, she was running around like normal. BAD DOG!

The beautiful KMD is more beautiful than ever, but you'll be able to see that yourselves, so there's no sense going on about it.

I like lots of new music and bands, but I do not expect you to be interested in them. Rest assured, Dolberry is NOT interested in any new music, bands, movies, blogs, etc., that you may find interesting.

Dolberry has not followed the NFL much either. Certainly not last week or the first week of the season. No sense discussing.

If you have any other topics you'd like to pre-discuss in advance of the feeding frenzy, go ahead and post a comment. Otherwise, for your own safety, please do not get between me and the turkey. (Not Dad, the edible turkey.)

DCV Top Bands of the 80's: #1

1. U2

Reasons why U2 is better than every other band of the 1980's:

a) The songs. There are about 20-30 U2 songs that make Dolberry very happy whenever he hears them. (I'll list them under "best songs".)

b) There was never a better video than U2's "Sunday Bloody Sunday" where they were at Red Rocks outside Denver. A storm rolls in. You can see the band's breath as Bono waves his white flag and screams his frustration "I'm so sick of it!" He was sick of the violence in Northern Ireland and 1983 Dolberry was sick of doing homework, taking out the trash, or having girls not lining up to date him. Nevertheless, we were kindred spirits against cruel outside forces. (Video added to sidebar.)

c) No other band of the 80's played a concert in St. Louis MO in 1987 on the same night as the 6th game of the World Series (Twins - Cardinals) and sucked up to the crowd by having their lead singer come out emblazoned in a Cardinals jacket and hat (which he threw to the crowd).

d) More than any other "star" I know, U2's Bono has leveraged his fame to do something other than general self-indulgence. Personally, Dolberry thinks he's done almost entirely good things which is an added bonus.

e) The Edge's guitar sound.

f) U2's Super Bowl appearance which paid tribute to the 9/11 victims while reaffirming that the US and people of good faith everywhere will not bow down to evil.

g) My Dad once said, while demanding that early U2 be turned off, that "this is awful" & "those guys will never amount to anything". It is, to my knowledge, the only time my dad was ever wrong about anything. (For the record, my mom was only wrong once as well ... thinking potato soup was edible.)

h) I heard Bono say once, "Quit asking God to bless what you're doing. Instead, find out what He's doing and do that. It's already blessed."

i) I like how U2 rebounded from a period in which they thought songs about this citrus fruit were good ideas. I like the fact that they tried that whole weird mid-90's Pop Mart thing ... even if I never got it. (Others 80s bands rebounded, but not to the same level as U2.)

j) U2 is from Ireland. Dolberry ancesters are from Ireland.

k) I like the fact that U2's absence from Live Earth was advocated by the antiGores as evidence that the concept of global warming is somehow flawed. (They're recording a new album in Africa at present.)

l) I like the fact that when U2 was starting out they claimed "I can't change the world, but I can change the world in me."

m) I like that U2 is so into America (our strengths, as well as our failings)

n) I like the fact that there's no better song to play on your headset while walking on the beach on a grey cloudy day than "The Unforgettable Fire". Seriously, I think that's one of the best experiences one can have on Earth.

o) I like how U2 usually opens "Where the Streets Have No Name" w/ a snippet from one of the Psalms (e.g.: Ps 116-12-13).

p) Bono's 80's hair, while widely mocked, is still a target that to which Dolberry aspires.

q) I like the fact that the Edge so admired Stuart Adamson and paid a touching tribute to him upon his death.

r) I like the fact that Bono's been married to his wife for 25 years.

s) I liked the U2 appearance on the Simpsons and that Monty Burns thinks they're "wankers".

t) I like how U2 pretty much carried both "Do They Know Its Christmas" and Live Aid.

u) Who knows to what degree, but it's pretty impressive that a band would have any role in bringing warring parties to peace as U2 did in Northern Ireland.

v) I like the fact that U2 claims to be the best band in the world.

w) I like the fact that U2 has stuck together all these years. Not just the band, but it seems like most of their team members have stuck together all these years.

Best songs: Pride, Where the Streets Have No Name, Walk On, Until the End of the World, Sunday Bloody Sunday, Beautiful Day, New Years Day, The Unforgettable Fire, Vertigo, The Fly, I Will Follow, With or Without You, I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For, One, In God's Country, October, Gloria, Wake Up Dead Man, Elevation, Out of Control, All I Want Is You, Bullet the Blue Sky, etc., etc.

Worst songs: Lemon

The ultimate reason to be against global warming

The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the more poison ivy grows and the more itchy the plant becomes.

Now ... it's personal.