Dolberry is entering his "A" shamrock this year. Enjoy!
Saturday, April 05, 2008
Shamrock Challenge
The good people over at the "Adventures of our super-fantastic babies" blog are running their 2nd annual Shamrock Challenge. The judges are awesome people. In honor of their greatness, we have their wedding metallic tulip thingy in our shamrock. (No, Dolberry does not know what metallic tulips have to do w/ getting married.) While I recall that I somehow didn't win last year, Dolberry is not the sort of guy who holds a grudge for 12 months. 10 tops. I hear there's a prize involved this year ... interesting.
Dolberry is entering his "A" shamrock this year. Enjoy!
Dolberry is entering his "A" shamrock this year. Enjoy!
Friday, April 04, 2008
Update on Dolberry Invitational
Thanks to all for playing this year. Six players are still alive in the race for first place. Here's the list of the lucky players and who needs what to win:
Personally, I see it coming down to Chad vs. Greg S., w/ Greg winning it all ... but I've been wrong a lot in this bracket.
Brian T.: Kansas over UCLA
Carrie: Kansas over Memphis
Chad: Memphis over UNC
Tim: Memphis over Kansas
Dolberry!: UCLA over Kansas
Greg S.: UCLA over UNC, UNC over Memphis, UNC over UCLA
Personally, I see it coming down to Chad vs. Greg S., w/ Greg winning it all ... but I've been wrong a lot in this bracket.
Meet Your 2008 O'Jimmies
Well our softball game for tonight got rained out. Then the Hurricanes lost their regular season finale which likely means they won't make the playoffs (unless the Capitals lose tomorrow night ... and the Caps have won 10 of their last 11). If the Reds don't bounce back from this 5-2 deficit, it's going to be a pretty pitiful sports night.
Speaking of sports and pitiful, wanted to introduce you to the 2008 O'Jimmies.
Decent hitters: Reyes, Kent, Francoeur, Encarnacion, N. Johnson, Laroche, Keppinger
Not-expecting-much: Snyder, Castro, L. Gonzalez, Pagan, Gerut, Gross
Decent pitchers: Webb, Smoltz, Isringhausen, Villenueva, Volquez
Not-expecting-much: Affeldt, Gordon, Moyer, & Turnbow
The O'Jimmies have finished 1st & 2nd (of 13) over the last two years. But, as seen below, we're in 9th thus far ... I'll keep you up to date as the season progresses.
Speaking of sports and pitiful, wanted to introduce you to the 2008 O'Jimmies.
Decent hitters: Reyes, Kent, Francoeur, Encarnacion, N. Johnson, Laroche, Keppinger
Not-expecting-much: Snyder, Castro, L. Gonzalez, Pagan, Gerut, Gross
Decent pitchers: Webb, Smoltz, Isringhausen, Villenueva, Volquez
Not-expecting-much: Affeldt, Gordon, Moyer, & Turnbow
The O'Jimmies have finished 1st & 2nd (of 13) over the last two years. But, as seen below, we're in 9th thus far ... I'll keep you up to date as the season progresses.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Life Episodes: April 3rd, 1974
As you'll recall the "Life Episode" segments on the DCV are reserved for those singular events that helped shape the legend that is Dolberry. 34 years ago today was one of those events. It was the Superoutbreak. 148 tornadoes in a mere 18 hours, including 6 F5's and 24 F4's. (For perspective, there's only been one U.S. F5 this decade, the Greensburg KS tornado last May.) Below is a map of the 148 twisters drawn by Dr. Ted Fujita (subject of very first DCV entry). Keen observers will note Tornado #48 ....
My first recollection of that day is that a round of severe storms rolled through Louisville around 10:30 that morning, an odd time for thunderstorms and one that foreshadowed the events to come. Dolberry was a strapping young 2nd grader at Kennedy Elementary impressing the teachers with his intellect AND his ability to avoid the lice outbreaks that were common that spring.
Rode the bus home and Mom took Kathy, Kris, Robbie Livingston, and I up to the barber shop on Patti Lane. Presumably, the prescient Dolberry had tactfully handled the haircut situation with the proper dash of complaint, because I remember we then headed to that old Ice Cream hut on Taylorsville Road. Coming out of the ice cream shop, I remember being greeted by the single blackest, most menacing cloud I had ever seen and have ever seen.
That's when things broke down a little. Mom, clearly stressed from an outing w/ four kids under eight, froze in her tracks. Dolberry, barely able to see over the steering wheel of the old Impala, had to drive the group home. Just after 4:15p, I turned on WHAS 840 on the car radio and heard John Burke of the Louisville NWS talking about how tornadoes ("tornadas" in his accent) had touched down Brandenburg and the hook echoes on the radar were heading toward Jefferson County. (Click that link above. Very cool.) While Dick Gilbert was up in Skywatch 84 avoiding "suspicious looking weather" in SW Louisville, Dolberry was flipping the radio dial around to avoid having to listen to horrid 1970s artists like B.J. Thomas and Paul Anka in between weather updates. Some have credited Dolberry for saving all five of our lives by having the composure to do this.
I rushed my mom and siblings out of the car and into our basement. Since our house was one of the few in the neighborhood w/ a basement, many of our neighbors came over to our house for safety. Dolberry had to calm many a frayed nerve exhibiting a steelyness beyond his seven years. We listened as the storm touched down right in front of the NWS forecasters eyes (Burke: "No tornado as of yet. High winds. Good gracious sake alive. There's 50 (mph winds) right there. By golly, the whole thing's going. Hear it? I'm going!") and ripped up the roof of Freedom Hall beginning a devastating F4 trek right through Louisville. (Gilbert: "It's a spectacular sight. Very black low clouds. Around Bowman Field. No definitive tornado yet ... Yes! There's one now. Dipping down. In the Highlands. Transformers have been blowing regularly.") We were down in the basement for a good 45 minutes before Dolberry ventured out to check the situation and sounded the all clear. There was another round of tornado warnings that night and we reprised the whole thing again, this time w/ a panicky El Cueto in the fold.
Anyway, it was this experience that made me want to be a meteorologist. I don't know what my life would have been like had the Superoutbreak never happened. And while it was a day upon which I can look back on my actions with pride ... I still don't like getting haircuts.
My first recollection of that day is that a round of severe storms rolled through Louisville around 10:30 that morning, an odd time for thunderstorms and one that foreshadowed the events to come. Dolberry was a strapping young 2nd grader at Kennedy Elementary impressing the teachers with his intellect AND his ability to avoid the lice outbreaks that were common that spring.
Rode the bus home and Mom took Kathy, Kris, Robbie Livingston, and I up to the barber shop on Patti Lane. Presumably, the prescient Dolberry had tactfully handled the haircut situation with the proper dash of complaint, because I remember we then headed to that old Ice Cream hut on Taylorsville Road. Coming out of the ice cream shop, I remember being greeted by the single blackest, most menacing cloud I had ever seen and have ever seen.
That's when things broke down a little. Mom, clearly stressed from an outing w/ four kids under eight, froze in her tracks. Dolberry, barely able to see over the steering wheel of the old Impala, had to drive the group home. Just after 4:15p, I turned on WHAS 840 on the car radio and heard John Burke of the Louisville NWS talking about how tornadoes ("tornadas" in his accent) had touched down Brandenburg and the hook echoes on the radar were heading toward Jefferson County. (Click that link above. Very cool.) While Dick Gilbert was up in Skywatch 84 avoiding "suspicious looking weather" in SW Louisville, Dolberry was flipping the radio dial around to avoid having to listen to horrid 1970s artists like B.J. Thomas and Paul Anka in between weather updates. Some have credited Dolberry for saving all five of our lives by having the composure to do this.
I rushed my mom and siblings out of the car and into our basement. Since our house was one of the few in the neighborhood w/ a basement, many of our neighbors came over to our house for safety. Dolberry had to calm many a frayed nerve exhibiting a steelyness beyond his seven years. We listened as the storm touched down right in front of the NWS forecasters eyes (Burke: "No tornado as of yet. High winds. Good gracious sake alive. There's 50 (mph winds) right there. By golly, the whole thing's going. Hear it? I'm going!") and ripped up the roof of Freedom Hall beginning a devastating F4 trek right through Louisville. (Gilbert: "It's a spectacular sight. Very black low clouds. Around Bowman Field. No definitive tornado yet ... Yes! There's one now. Dipping down. In the Highlands. Transformers have been blowing regularly.") We were down in the basement for a good 45 minutes before Dolberry ventured out to check the situation and sounded the all clear. There was another round of tornado warnings that night and we reprised the whole thing again, this time w/ a panicky El Cueto in the fold.
Anyway, it was this experience that made me want to be a meteorologist. I don't know what my life would have been like had the Superoutbreak never happened. And while it was a day upon which I can look back on my actions with pride ... I still don't like getting haircuts.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Dolberry's Law
The order of the world is established through a system of laws. Without the controlling influence of laws, it is easy to speculate that humanity would rapidly disintegrate into a chaotic mess. Laws can originate from many sources. The first ones were divine, they've been embedded in our psyches for generations. ("Love your God. Love your neighbor.") Some come through a legislative or deliberative process and their wisdom is borne out over decades. ("Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.") Some laws might be needed for a time, but circumstances eventually relegate it to obsolescence. According to dumblaws.com, in the State of Kentucky one may not dye a duckling blue and offer it for sale unless more than six are for sale at once.
Dolberry has always liked that category of "laws" that naturally spring from human observation and persist because of their truth. The most famous of these types of laws is the rather pessimistic Murphy's Law. Another famous one is Moore's Law. I've spent the last month ruminating over another law that I think could radically reshape the way sports fans watch and communicate about their passion. In typical Dolberry modesty, I propose it be called Dolberry's Law.
Dolberry's Law reads as follows: "As a sports fan, you may only claim credit for championships that were won during your lifetime and during a period in which you actively rooted for that team."
As we move into the Final Four and Opening Day of baseball season, it is perhaps fitting that we now gently admonish the two groups that I think will be most affected by Dolberry's Law, i.e., New York Yankees fans and U of K basketball fans.
When we were in Sarasota watching the Reds spank the Yankees, I overheard the following snippet from a conversation between a group of grumpy (& prolifically profane) 20-something Yankees fans ... "talk to me when you've won 26 World Series instead of four." (Actually, the Reds have won five, but I wasn't going to interject.) According to Dolberry's Law these guys are actually only entitled to take credit for four WS wins (96, 98, 99, 00). As a 41-yr old Reds fan, I'm entitled to gloat about 3 WS wins (75, 76, 90). Four vs. three is not a huge advantage, certainly not one worth boasting about.
The biggest category of fans misleadingly padding their championship stats are Wildcat basketball fans who continuously trumpet their seven titles. Unless you were born before 1950, you are not eligible to take credit for the titles in 48, 49, 51, & 58. So UK fans of my age can legitimately take credit for only three. (U of L has two over the same period.) So the next time you run across a UK fan, watch out for them drooling chewing tobacco on your shoes and admonish them with Dolberry's Law if they try to take credit for championships won when a whole race of Americans weren't even allowed to participate in the sport.
And just so Dolberry is not accused of making the law for his own use, please realize that I'm losing credit for Saint Louis University's all-time leading 10 soccer titles between 1959 and 1973. Using the "actively rooted" section of Dolberry's Law, I would only be eligible for any titles that the glorious Billikens won that one Saturday night I rode a bus out to some crazily far away western St. Louis suburb to watch a 0-0 tie. (Actually, Dolberry was probably only eligible for maybe 10 minutes of the 90 minutes of gameplay.)
C-A-R-D-S!
Dolberry has always liked that category of "laws" that naturally spring from human observation and persist because of their truth. The most famous of these types of laws is the rather pessimistic Murphy's Law. Another famous one is Moore's Law. I've spent the last month ruminating over another law that I think could radically reshape the way sports fans watch and communicate about their passion. In typical Dolberry modesty, I propose it be called Dolberry's Law.
Dolberry's Law reads as follows: "As a sports fan, you may only claim credit for championships that were won during your lifetime and during a period in which you actively rooted for that team."
As we move into the Final Four and Opening Day of baseball season, it is perhaps fitting that we now gently admonish the two groups that I think will be most affected by Dolberry's Law, i.e., New York Yankees fans and U of K basketball fans.
When we were in Sarasota watching the Reds spank the Yankees, I overheard the following snippet from a conversation between a group of grumpy (& prolifically profane) 20-something Yankees fans ... "talk to me when you've won 26 World Series instead of four." (Actually, the Reds have won five, but I wasn't going to interject.) According to Dolberry's Law these guys are actually only entitled to take credit for four WS wins (96, 98, 99, 00). As a 41-yr old Reds fan, I'm entitled to gloat about 3 WS wins (75, 76, 90). Four vs. three is not a huge advantage, certainly not one worth boasting about.
The biggest category of fans misleadingly padding their championship stats are Wildcat basketball fans who continuously trumpet their seven titles. Unless you were born before 1950, you are not eligible to take credit for the titles in 48, 49, 51, & 58. So UK fans of my age can legitimately take credit for only three. (U of L has two over the same period.) So the next time you run across a UK fan, watch out for them drooling chewing tobacco on your shoes and admonish them with Dolberry's Law if they try to take credit for championships won when a whole race of Americans weren't even allowed to participate in the sport.
And just so Dolberry is not accused of making the law for his own use, please realize that I'm losing credit for Saint Louis University's all-time leading 10 soccer titles between 1959 and 1973. Using the "actively rooted" section of Dolberry's Law, I would only be eligible for any titles that the glorious Billikens won that one Saturday night I rode a bus out to some crazily far away western St. Louis suburb to watch a 0-0 tie. (Actually, Dolberry was probably only eligible for maybe 10 minutes of the 90 minutes of gameplay.)
C-A-R-D-S!
Friday, March 28, 2008
Softball is underway!
We won our 1st game (18-15). I didn't do too well (0-3, but got on twice on errors) & I made one horrendous throw trying to get a guy out at home from SS on an OF relay. It's a long season.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Annual DCV Blog Bracket Challenge
Please join in. Free entry. One entry per player. Try to come up w/ a creative name ... that is more so than "Smith Entry". To the winner: a $25 Papa John's gift card.
Here are the instructions ... near as I can tell. Let me know if any problems. Enjoy.
Get in the action now:
http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/group?groupID=38038
Game Front:
http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/frontpage
Group: Dolberry Cherry Vanilla
Password: billikens
Here are the instructions ... near as I can tell. Let me know if any problems. Enjoy.
Get in the action now:
http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/group?groupID=38038
Game Front:
http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/frontpage
Group: Dolberry Cherry Vanilla
Password: billikens
Friday, March 14, 2008
Vacation Review - Spring Training 2008
Hey, as always, we had a great time on our Spring Training trip. For those that weren't there, here are the highlights:
Wed: There was a little anxiety getting ready for the trip as APD was sick, having missed school on both Monday and Tuesday. By Wed, he was feeling well enough to travel and apparently to infect perfectly healthy members of the traveling party (see Dolberry, Sunday). We had an easy trip down to Sarasota when the first of the more-than-usual vacation bugs bit ... I'd booked a different Comfort Suites than I had the past straight 5 years. Oh well, not a huge deal. Drove an extra 10 miles or so, but accommodations were just as nice. Also, I walloped APD and the beautiful KMD in our annual putt-putt game by an embarassingly (to them) large margin.
Thurs: Always fun to celebrate the beautiful KMD's birthday ... walking on eggshells all day not to mention a certain number (this year, 46); or use any of the following terms: "grizzled veteran", "retirement home", or "ol' lady". We picked up El Cueto and Grandma Cueto at their usual flea-infested hotel in Tampa and headed down to Sarasota for a Reds-Yankees game. APD got a ton of autographs: Eric Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Dusty Bakey, Jeff Keppinger, and others. The Reds scored 6 runs in the first on an EE grand slam en route to a 12-8 victory. The picture at the top is from Day 1. We then retired back to the hotel (where there was another snafu upon registering) and had a lovely dinner w/ Angela and the Twins. Fell asleep before my head hit the pillow.
Fri: El Cueto had us out of bed at 5:15a to go play golf. It was the least fun round of golf I have ever played thanks to: a) my complete inability to hit a golf ball in the proper direction and b) a course starter who had apparently taken customer service training from a WWII German cable company. Dolberry thinks only Eliot Spitzer has gotten more grief on an recent investment than my $130 outlay to get scolded by a bitter Florida retiree. The game against the Pirates was far more pleasant. The Reds burst out to a big lead again on a Brandon Phillips bomb & we got to see Johnny Cueto (the next great starting pitcher) absolutely dominate 10 Pirate hitters over three innings. Got to meet our favorite Florida State House Democrat for dinner and APD had a blast playing w/ the Twins in the hotel pool (approximate pool temp ... 73 deg ... brrrrr.)
Sat: Dolberry had a weird episode in the morning packing hotel bags. My back locked up quite painfully. I guess it was a back spasm. It did get me out of carrying bags down to the car which was nice. Apparently, taking 126 golf shots in a 3.75 hour period can wear your back out. Then, we drove down to Ft. Myers to watch the Red Sox play the Marlins. Interestingly enough, Josh Beckett came out to pitch before, he too, was felled by back spasms. The Fish won 5-2 despite a Jacoby Ellsbury HR. APD got Hanley Ramirez' autograph which was very cool. We drove back to Clearwater that night and actually checked into a hotel uneventfully. Had shrimp linguini at the Bahama Breeze which I will mention more about in the Sun section.
Sun: Around 2a, Dolberry spent his first moments of 2008 Daylight Savings time participating in the fun experience throwing up a full plate of shrimp linguini. I bet I was one of the first Americans to vomit in Daylight Savings Time this year. So, I have that going for me. Of course, Dolberry's first thoughts were not for himself, but for the the annual Phillies game Philly Cheesesteaks I was planning to enjoy in less than 10 hours. I devoted myself to a cautious but arduous set of stomach-relaxing techniques to prepare my digestive system for the meaty bliss of a La Spada's cheesesteak. After watching BP in the outfield, and catching a ball thrown up by a shagging outfielder (the other kind of "thrown up"), we settled into our seats. BTW, it was extremely cold in Florida the last two days of our visit. Disturbingly cold. Colder than it ever has been in past vacations. Cold and windy. Cold enough, that I think the Florida House should do something about it. Of course, like all good blog entries this one has a happy ending. I ate one cheesesteak (they're even better when their warmth warms you) and then devoured another one a few innings later and I didn't get sick the whole 11 hour ride back to Raleigh. Dolberry has the strength of 12 men.
Great vacation as always. Due to the people we spent it with (excepting that starter), I give it 5 stars.
Sunday, March 02, 2008
2008 NL Roto Preview: New York Mets
New York Mets: The Mets had a collapse for the ages last year ... one we'll be talking about 20 years from now (assuming we haven't all purchased sports-trash-talking robots by then). On Dolberry Day last year (Sept 10), the Mets were sitting pretty at 82 - 61, six full games clear of the Phillies. Here are some of the quotes from Mets players as their ship slowly took on water.
9/10: "We couldn't have picked a better time than this to peak. This is the best baseball we've played all season." (David Wright)
9/12: "We're obviously in the driver's seat and we want to close it out as soon as we can and focus on the postseason." (Shawn Green)
9/16: "How many errors did we make? Five? Six? You have to play defense, too. They deserved to beat us." (Carlos Beltran)
9/17: "That's not how we play the game. Hopefully we'll get out of it -- the sooner the better." (Omar Minaya)
9/18: "Anybody with half a brain would say we've been horrible." (Tom Glavine)
9/20: "Things are not going our way. It seems like every team comes back on us real easy." (Carlos Beltran)
9/24: "It's embarrassing with the season on the line to go out there and get embarrassed on your own home field." (David Wright)
9/26: "We all feel terrible for ourselves as a team right now that we can't really close the deal." (Willie Randolph)
9/28: "I think it's embarrassing. It's pretty pathetic that we have this division within our grasp with seven home games and we can't find a way to win one of them. It's a bad feeling." (David Wright)
9/30: "The harder we pushed, the worse it got." (Billy Wagner)
The Mets rank 30th on my list of favorite MLB teams, so I can't say I didn't enjoy reliving that experience. Anyway, here's what they look like this year.
C: Mike Schneider / Ramon Castro - Pass on Schneider. Castro is an O'Jimmie and the better fantasy player but he seems to be best suited for about 200-250 ABs per season. We should probably keep him w/ his bargain salary ($1).
1B: Carlos Delgado - He was banged up all last year and hits stats nosedived. Would look like a bounceback candidate but his already getting MRI's down in Florida. Likely pass. AVAIL.
2B: Luis Castillo - 32 years old w/ fading stats over the past 2-3 years. Best case scenario would appear to be above average AVG/OBP & 20 SB. AVAIL.
SS: Jose Reyes - Roto MVP runner-up. (.280/.354/12/57/78) Didn't do anything other then steal bags after coming to the O'Jimmies at the all-start break, but contributed to our 2nd place finish (good and bad). Only 24, expect a better AVG/OBP/HRs in 2008 w/ SBs down slightly (50-60). O'JIMMIES keep despite hefty salary.
3B: David Wright - Great player. Seems like he's been on the Wonderboys since he was 12 years old. WOND keep.
LF: Moises Alou - One of the few remaining MLB'ers older than Dolberry. Solid year last year, but 41-yr old quad muscles limited him to just 320 ABs. AVAIL.
CF: Carlos Beltran - One of the more up & down rotisserie superstars. Was a 5-category player last year, but knee surgery in offseason could reduce him to 4 cats. FOWL doubtful keep?
RF: Ryan Church - 29 yrs old. Sustained a Grade 2 concussion in a spectacular collision yesterday. Assuming he recovers from that quickly, he looks to get about 400-500 ABs as Mets primary RF. Solid Roto OF. MOJO keeper.
SP1: Johan Santana - His stats over the last 4 years can cause a Roto managers pulse to quicken. Moving to a very good pitchers park & plays on a team that should win 85-90 games. May set a record for auction price for a starting pitcher. $45 is not out of the question. Hopefully will have a bad spring to scare some NL'ers off. AVAIL.
SP2: Pedro Martinez - Pedro was one of the few Mets that performed well last September, going 3-1 w/ 32Ks in 28IP w/ a 2.57. The only downside was that he was more hittable than he's ever been (33 hits in those 28 IP). I'm chalking that up to small sample size and expect him to have a decent year ... IF his shoulder holds up. Doubtful SQZZ keeper.
SP3: John Maine - Very good, mostly overlooked SP. BARF keeper.
SP4: Oliver Perez - Maybe the least predictable pitcher in the game. Only 26, here are his WHIP in his six MLB seasons (2002-2007): 1.32, 1.63, 1.15, 1.67, 1.76, 1.31. High risk/reward here. Is in his contract year, if you are the cynical type. AVAIL?
SP5: El Duque or Mike Pelfrey - El Duque has only pitched over 200 IP once in his career (1999). He's claiming to be 39, but I'm guessing he's probably not counting years from the 1960s. Having foot issues this spring. Likely SQZZ keeper. Pelfrey is a one-time prospect who had a BB:K ratio near 1 last year. Only 23 but has a long way to go before he's a pitcher worth having on your roto roster. AVAIL.
CLS: Billy Wagner - Not the best closer in the NL like he was from 2001-2005, but he's still in the Top 5. JUST keep?
Alt CLS: Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez: If Heilman compiled the stats he has over the past 3 years on a team that didn't have a closer like Wagner, he'd have been crowned a "closer" and his salary would be about 10x higher than his current setup guy salary. Sanchez will have to show he's over shoulder surgery in Spring Training. AH may be a JUST keeper.
Bench: Damion Easley, Olmedo Saenz, Brady Clark, Endy Chavez: Easley and Saenz can both really torment a portsider. Clark's an OK 4th-5th OF. Chavez is a one-category player (AVG). Probably pass on all these guys, but one of them may get some serious playing time if Delgado is down for a large chunk of the season.
Prospects: Most of them were traded for Johan Santana. Best prospect is Fernando Martinez, but he's only 19 and probably not worth a reserve pick this year.
Injured: The Mets have a whole bunch of injured players right now. Wright, Reyes, and Alou are the only starting lineup guys that are healthy right now. A situation to be monitored.
Dolberry's Musings on the Mets: I do not like the Mets. This antipathy dates back to my days at SLU when I got caught up in that era's tempestuous Mets - Cardinals rivalry. There are too many Mets fans on my various softball teams. This fall I'm capping it at two. And they have to sit at the end of the bench. Out of earshot, if that's even possible for a Mets fan.
What it means for the O'Jimmies: We had too many Mets last year (Glavine, Reyes, Castro, Conine, & Feliciano). Not surprisingly when the Mets tanked in September ... so did the O'Jimmies ... dropping from 1st to 2nd in the last week of the season. I think we should cap them at two this year (Reyes & Castro). Johan would be nice, but he'll be too expensive.
9/10: "We couldn't have picked a better time than this to peak. This is the best baseball we've played all season." (David Wright)
9/12: "We're obviously in the driver's seat and we want to close it out as soon as we can and focus on the postseason." (Shawn Green)
9/16: "How many errors did we make? Five? Six? You have to play defense, too. They deserved to beat us." (Carlos Beltran)
9/17: "That's not how we play the game. Hopefully we'll get out of it -- the sooner the better." (Omar Minaya)
9/18: "Anybody with half a brain would say we've been horrible." (Tom Glavine)
9/20: "Things are not going our way. It seems like every team comes back on us real easy." (Carlos Beltran)
9/24: "It's embarrassing with the season on the line to go out there and get embarrassed on your own home field." (David Wright)
9/26: "We all feel terrible for ourselves as a team right now that we can't really close the deal." (Willie Randolph)
9/28: "I think it's embarrassing. It's pretty pathetic that we have this division within our grasp with seven home games and we can't find a way to win one of them. It's a bad feeling." (David Wright)
9/30: "The harder we pushed, the worse it got." (Billy Wagner)
The Mets rank 30th on my list of favorite MLB teams, so I can't say I didn't enjoy reliving that experience. Anyway, here's what they look like this year.
C: Mike Schneider / Ramon Castro - Pass on Schneider. Castro is an O'Jimmie and the better fantasy player but he seems to be best suited for about 200-250 ABs per season. We should probably keep him w/ his bargain salary ($1).
1B: Carlos Delgado - He was banged up all last year and hits stats nosedived. Would look like a bounceback candidate but his already getting MRI's down in Florida. Likely pass. AVAIL.
2B: Luis Castillo - 32 years old w/ fading stats over the past 2-3 years. Best case scenario would appear to be above average AVG/OBP & 20 SB. AVAIL.
SS: Jose Reyes - Roto MVP runner-up. (.280/.354/12/57/78) Didn't do anything other then steal bags after coming to the O'Jimmies at the all-start break, but contributed to our 2nd place finish (good and bad). Only 24, expect a better AVG/OBP/HRs in 2008 w/ SBs down slightly (50-60). O'JIMMIES keep despite hefty salary.
3B: David Wright - Great player. Seems like he's been on the Wonderboys since he was 12 years old. WOND keep.
LF: Moises Alou - One of the few remaining MLB'ers older than Dolberry. Solid year last year, but 41-yr old quad muscles limited him to just 320 ABs. AVAIL.
CF: Carlos Beltran - One of the more up & down rotisserie superstars. Was a 5-category player last year, but knee surgery in offseason could reduce him to 4 cats. FOWL doubtful keep?
RF: Ryan Church - 29 yrs old. Sustained a Grade 2 concussion in a spectacular collision yesterday. Assuming he recovers from that quickly, he looks to get about 400-500 ABs as Mets primary RF. Solid Roto OF. MOJO keeper.
SP1: Johan Santana - His stats over the last 4 years can cause a Roto managers pulse to quicken. Moving to a very good pitchers park & plays on a team that should win 85-90 games. May set a record for auction price for a starting pitcher. $45 is not out of the question. Hopefully will have a bad spring to scare some NL'ers off. AVAIL.
SP2: Pedro Martinez - Pedro was one of the few Mets that performed well last September, going 3-1 w/ 32Ks in 28IP w/ a 2.57. The only downside was that he was more hittable than he's ever been (33 hits in those 28 IP). I'm chalking that up to small sample size and expect him to have a decent year ... IF his shoulder holds up. Doubtful SQZZ keeper.
SP3: John Maine - Very good, mostly overlooked SP. BARF keeper.
SP4: Oliver Perez - Maybe the least predictable pitcher in the game. Only 26, here are his WHIP in his six MLB seasons (2002-2007): 1.32, 1.63, 1.15, 1.67, 1.76, 1.31. High risk/reward here. Is in his contract year, if you are the cynical type. AVAIL?
SP5: El Duque or Mike Pelfrey - El Duque has only pitched over 200 IP once in his career (1999). He's claiming to be 39, but I'm guessing he's probably not counting years from the 1960s. Having foot issues this spring. Likely SQZZ keeper. Pelfrey is a one-time prospect who had a BB:K ratio near 1 last year. Only 23 but has a long way to go before he's a pitcher worth having on your roto roster. AVAIL.
CLS: Billy Wagner - Not the best closer in the NL like he was from 2001-2005, but he's still in the Top 5. JUST keep?
Alt CLS: Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez: If Heilman compiled the stats he has over the past 3 years on a team that didn't have a closer like Wagner, he'd have been crowned a "closer" and his salary would be about 10x higher than his current setup guy salary. Sanchez will have to show he's over shoulder surgery in Spring Training. AH may be a JUST keeper.
Bench: Damion Easley, Olmedo Saenz, Brady Clark, Endy Chavez: Easley and Saenz can both really torment a portsider. Clark's an OK 4th-5th OF. Chavez is a one-category player (AVG). Probably pass on all these guys, but one of them may get some serious playing time if Delgado is down for a large chunk of the season.
Prospects: Most of them were traded for Johan Santana. Best prospect is Fernando Martinez, but he's only 19 and probably not worth a reserve pick this year.
Injured: The Mets have a whole bunch of injured players right now. Wright, Reyes, and Alou are the only starting lineup guys that are healthy right now. A situation to be monitored.
Dolberry's Musings on the Mets: I do not like the Mets. This antipathy dates back to my days at SLU when I got caught up in that era's tempestuous Mets - Cardinals rivalry. There are too many Mets fans on my various softball teams. This fall I'm capping it at two. And they have to sit at the end of the bench. Out of earshot, if that's even possible for a Mets fan.
What it means for the O'Jimmies: We had too many Mets last year (Glavine, Reyes, Castro, Conine, & Feliciano). Not surprisingly when the Mets tanked in September ... so did the O'Jimmies ... dropping from 1st to 2nd in the last week of the season. I think we should cap them at two this year (Reyes & Castro). Johan would be nice, but he'll be too expensive.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
2008 NL Roto Preview: Florida Marlins
Florida Marlins: 71 wins last year and traded their primary offensive threat. (Sniff, sniff, we will miss you Miguel.) Got their new stadium approved this week, so may actually start keeping players past the age of 25 at some point. Will be changing name to Miami Marlins in 2010.
C: Mike Rabelo - 28 & hasn't really hit at any level. Came over in the Detroit trade. Pass. AVAIL (topper).
1B: Mike Jacobs - Should be hitting his prime. HRs are his only above avg category & is unlikely he'll hit more than 20-25. AVAIL.
2B: Dan Uggla - Very similar to Jacobs. Stats should be pretty predictable. Will hurt you in AVG/OBP, but give you ~ 25 HRs. GOODF keep.
SS: Hanley Ramirez - 2007 Roto MVP. (.332/.390/29/88/51) Wow! Only 25, but expect stats to regress slightly just 'cause they can't get much better. HAZE keep.
3B: Jose Castillo, Dallas McPherson, Jorge Cantu - Likely to be decided during spring training. Not much here. Castillo probably has the edge and had a decent winter league, but he's been a big zero through 4 MLB years. McPherson's got power but K's a ton & missed all last year. Cantu is ok, but his "D" at 3B is suspect. Pass on all 3. AVAIL (Castillo - JUST keeper?).
LF: Josh Willingham - Reasonable roto OF. RBI's dampened by rest of Marlins. AVAIL.
CF: Cameron Maybin, Cody Ross - Maybin is one of the best prospects in the game. A true 5-category stud. But he's only 20 and he did struggle in 50 MLB ABs last year. By 23, he will probably be an all-star, but how much you want to pay for him now is unclear. Cody Ross had a great two months last year, but they look out of place w/ the rest of his career. AVAIL (Ross - BSOX keeper?).
RF: Jeremy Hermida - Still only 24. Seemed to figure it out after the all-star break last year (.230 pre-, .340 -post). Look for breakout year here. BSOX keeper.
SP1: Scott Olsen - Was awful last year on all counts. He especially seemed to give up after the all-star break. Unclear how much of the deterioration was his attitude (which appears to be even worse than his stats). Either way, not much point drafting him or any other Marlin starter. AVAIL.
SP2: Sergio Mitre - Gets by on guile. Shortest Marlin starter at 6'3". (The Marlins probably would have the best basketball team rotation.) Not much to recommend here. AVAIL.
SP3: Andrew Miller - Was pitching for Tar Heels just two years ago. Big time prospect who struggled in 60 IP in Detroit last year. The Marlins can let him learn the ropes for a few years & hope he's ready by 2010 when they're ready to contend. AVAIL.
SP4: Mark Hendrickson - T.J. Simers (funny columnist from L.A. Times) calls him "The Big Stiff" which pretty much describes his 6-year MLB career (career ERA > 5.00) AVAIL.
SP5: Rick VandenHurk, Ricky Nolasco - VandenHurk K's about a guy an inning, but is hit hard otherwise. Only 22 and from the Netherlands, so still could develop. Probably should be coverted to a reliever, though. Nolasco doesn't look draftable. AVAIL (RVH BARF keep?).
CLS: Kevin Gregg - Solid closer. Nice K-rate. Highest paid Marlin (2.5 mil) BSOX keep.
Alt CLS: Justin Miller: Miller came back from Japan w/ a new propensity for K's. His K rate last year was equal to Billy Wagner & Derrick Turnbow. Pitched well for O'Jimmies at end of year. K:BB is around 3. Matt Lindstrom also had a decent year for a 'pen that was surprisingly good (Gardner, Tankersley, etc.). Hard to say which one would step up if Gregg went down or was traded.
Bench: Alfredo Amezaga, Jorge Piedra - Amezaga is cheap speed at best. Piedra probably will only get 150 ABs, mostly as a PH, but they should be decent ABs.
Prospects: Chris Volstad - SP, another tall Marlin SP (6'7"), probably arriving in late 2008. Great control for a young pitcher, but didn't K that many last year and was hittable.
Injured: Anibel Sanchez - SP, - Already had a setback w/ his return from shoulder surgery. Not expected to return until July and maybe later than that.
Dolberry's Musings on the Marlins: APD once got to run out to right field w/ Marlins RF Jeremy Hermida when he played for the Carolina Mudcats (Marlins AA club). That was one of Dolberry's better efforts as a youth leader getting that set up. Carolina Mudcats games are fun to attend. In my mind, they are way better than Durham Bulls games.
To me, D-Bulls games diminish the baseball w/ all the between-inning entertainment and other distractions. I realize how snobbish this sounds by the way. But it just seems especially incongruent at the DBAP. You're in this increasingly cool, revitalized Durham environment, but inside the stadium has a very Cary/Apex feel. I'm all for family-friendly ... it just seems forced somehow w/ the Bulls. Plus, I hate/loath/despise Y-M-C-A. It's probably just me, because their attendance is solid every year.
In contrast, the Mudcats play out in the middle of nowhere (Zebulon NC, actually) & there's generally no more than 3K in attendance, but you can hear the crack of the bat & you can sit in the first row & some people can yell out at the players (We Love You Teddy Bear!) loud enough to irritate everyone in a 20-mile radius. Despite the last item, I just like Mudcat games better.
What it means for the O'Jimmies: Not much given that Ramirez, Gregg, and Hermida likely won't be available. Any team leaving the draft counting on more than 2 Marlins is probably in trouble. Maybin and Miller are attractive as prospects, esp. Maybin. Justin Miller is probably worth a buck as an O'Jimmy keeper, but presumably you could get him for a buck again in the draft, so what's the point?
C: Mike Rabelo - 28 & hasn't really hit at any level. Came over in the Detroit trade. Pass. AVAIL (topper).
1B: Mike Jacobs - Should be hitting his prime. HRs are his only above avg category & is unlikely he'll hit more than 20-25. AVAIL.
2B: Dan Uggla - Very similar to Jacobs. Stats should be pretty predictable. Will hurt you in AVG/OBP, but give you ~ 25 HRs. GOODF keep.
SS: Hanley Ramirez - 2007 Roto MVP. (.332/.390/29/88/51) Wow! Only 25, but expect stats to regress slightly just 'cause they can't get much better. HAZE keep.
3B: Jose Castillo, Dallas McPherson, Jorge Cantu - Likely to be decided during spring training. Not much here. Castillo probably has the edge and had a decent winter league, but he's been a big zero through 4 MLB years. McPherson's got power but K's a ton & missed all last year. Cantu is ok, but his "D" at 3B is suspect. Pass on all 3. AVAIL (Castillo - JUST keeper?).
LF: Josh Willingham - Reasonable roto OF. RBI's dampened by rest of Marlins. AVAIL.
CF: Cameron Maybin, Cody Ross - Maybin is one of the best prospects in the game. A true 5-category stud. But he's only 20 and he did struggle in 50 MLB ABs last year. By 23, he will probably be an all-star, but how much you want to pay for him now is unclear. Cody Ross had a great two months last year, but they look out of place w/ the rest of his career. AVAIL (Ross - BSOX keeper?).
RF: Jeremy Hermida - Still only 24. Seemed to figure it out after the all-star break last year (.230 pre-, .340 -post). Look for breakout year here. BSOX keeper.
SP1: Scott Olsen - Was awful last year on all counts. He especially seemed to give up after the all-star break. Unclear how much of the deterioration was his attitude (which appears to be even worse than his stats). Either way, not much point drafting him or any other Marlin starter. AVAIL.
SP2: Sergio Mitre - Gets by on guile. Shortest Marlin starter at 6'3". (The Marlins probably would have the best basketball team rotation.) Not much to recommend here. AVAIL.
SP3: Andrew Miller - Was pitching for Tar Heels just two years ago. Big time prospect who struggled in 60 IP in Detroit last year. The Marlins can let him learn the ropes for a few years & hope he's ready by 2010 when they're ready to contend. AVAIL.
SP4: Mark Hendrickson - T.J. Simers (funny columnist from L.A. Times) calls him "The Big Stiff" which pretty much describes his 6-year MLB career (career ERA > 5.00) AVAIL.
SP5: Rick VandenHurk, Ricky Nolasco - VandenHurk K's about a guy an inning, but is hit hard otherwise. Only 22 and from the Netherlands, so still could develop. Probably should be coverted to a reliever, though. Nolasco doesn't look draftable. AVAIL (RVH BARF keep?).
CLS: Kevin Gregg - Solid closer. Nice K-rate. Highest paid Marlin (2.5 mil) BSOX keep.
Alt CLS: Justin Miller: Miller came back from Japan w/ a new propensity for K's. His K rate last year was equal to Billy Wagner & Derrick Turnbow. Pitched well for O'Jimmies at end of year. K:BB is around 3. Matt Lindstrom also had a decent year for a 'pen that was surprisingly good (Gardner, Tankersley, etc.). Hard to say which one would step up if Gregg went down or was traded.
Bench: Alfredo Amezaga, Jorge Piedra - Amezaga is cheap speed at best. Piedra probably will only get 150 ABs, mostly as a PH, but they should be decent ABs.
Prospects: Chris Volstad - SP, another tall Marlin SP (6'7"), probably arriving in late 2008. Great control for a young pitcher, but didn't K that many last year and was hittable.
Injured: Anibel Sanchez - SP, - Already had a setback w/ his return from shoulder surgery. Not expected to return until July and maybe later than that.
Dolberry's Musings on the Marlins: APD once got to run out to right field w/ Marlins RF Jeremy Hermida when he played for the Carolina Mudcats (Marlins AA club). That was one of Dolberry's better efforts as a youth leader getting that set up. Carolina Mudcats games are fun to attend. In my mind, they are way better than Durham Bulls games.
To me, D-Bulls games diminish the baseball w/ all the between-inning entertainment and other distractions. I realize how snobbish this sounds by the way. But it just seems especially incongruent at the DBAP. You're in this increasingly cool, revitalized Durham environment, but inside the stadium has a very Cary/Apex feel. I'm all for family-friendly ... it just seems forced somehow w/ the Bulls. Plus, I hate/loath/despise Y-M-C-A. It's probably just me, because their attendance is solid every year.
In contrast, the Mudcats play out in the middle of nowhere (Zebulon NC, actually) & there's generally no more than 3K in attendance, but you can hear the crack of the bat & you can sit in the first row & some people can yell out at the players (We Love You Teddy Bear!) loud enough to irritate everyone in a 20-mile radius. Despite the last item, I just like Mudcat games better.
What it means for the O'Jimmies: Not much given that Ramirez, Gregg, and Hermida likely won't be available. Any team leaving the draft counting on more than 2 Marlins is probably in trouble. Maybin and Miller are attractive as prospects, esp. Maybin. Justin Miller is probably worth a buck as an O'Jimmy keeper, but presumably you could get him for a buck again in the draft, so what's the point?
Friday, February 22, 2008
2008 NL roto preview: Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves: Finished 3rd last year. 5 games back of the Phillies. Have a good young core of position players entering their prime. Many question marks in the starting rotation. Should contend in the NL East.
C: Brian McCann - Only 24. Stats took a tumble last year, but still was a top 3 catcher in the NL. Only 24. Should improve. AVAIL (topper).
1B: Mark Texiera - Dependable middle-of-the-order run producer. Hit an otherwordly .509 w/ runners in scoring position last year. AVAIL.
2B: Kelly Johnson - Former O'Jimmy who blossomed last year. Wore down a little in Sept. which depressed his final stats. BARF keep.
SS: Yunel Escobar - Exceptional rookie season. Improved as year went along. Not much pop now, but could come. EMPIRE keep.
3B: Chipper Jones - Still one of the best players in baseball when healthy. At 36, durability not likely to improve, but 350-400 exceptional AB are guaranteed. JUST keeper.
LF: Matt Diaz - Some uncertainty here. May platoon Diaz w/ Brandon Jones or Josh Anderson. Diaz pounds LHP, mediocre vs RHP. JUST keep?
CF: Mark Kotsay - Coming off back surgery. Reportedly healthy. 32 years old. Last good fantasy season was 2004. Don't see much here. AVAIL.
RF: Jeff Francouer - Only 24. Good power, OBP liability. Expect his HRs to increase and should have RBI opps aplenty. AVAIL (topper).
SP1: Tim Hudson - 3rd season in ATL was best by far. Good bet to win 15 games w/ above average ERA/WHIP. GOODF keep?
SP2: John Smoltz - Future Hall-of-Famer, Lifetime WHIP ~ 1.15. Still K's 6-7 per game. How long can he keep it up? O'JIMMIES keep.
SP3: Tom Glavine - Watched him alot last year as an O'Jimmy. If he can't get batters to chase offspeed/away, he has nothing else. May get wins but will hurt your WHIP/ERA. AVAIL.
SP4: Mike Hampton - Missed 2.5 seasons w/ elbow problems. Then hurt his hammy during 1st inning of winter ball. Reportedly healthy now. Never a big K guy & always walks too many. Intriguing though for $1 on this team. O'JIMMIES keep?
SP5: Jo-Jo Reyes, Chuck James, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Bennett - The Braves think all 4 of these guys are MLB pitchers. James may not be ready on Opening Day. Jurrjens is the big time prospect but needs development (only 21). Bennett will probably end up in the pen. Reyes then should get a shot. Didn't impress last year in limited duty, but minor league success and Bobby Cox are in his corner. Reyes & James are possible HAZE keepers.
CLS: Rafael Soriano - VERY solid closer. BSOX keep.
Alt CLS: Peter Moylan, Mike Gonzalez: Gonzalez is a stud when healthy. Looking good in ST but not expected back until June. Moylan's a decent set up guy.
Bench: Brandon Jones - 24 year old. Athletic w/ power/speed. Solid stats in AA/AAA. Improving. Longshot to be a breakout fantasy pick in 2008.
Bench: Josh Anderson - Cheap speed. 40 SB in AAA. Not much else.
Prospects: Jordan Schaefer - CF, probably in 2009. 20/20 potential. Profiles similar to Kotsay, IMO.
Dolberry's Musings on the Braves: I've always liked Chipper Jones. He was one of the first players ever drafted by the short-lived Candolwick Clarks (Stephen & my roto team in Chicago). As many of you know, APD was called Lil' Chipper when he was in his fetal stage. His career has followed the typical 5-stage superstar arc:
1) highly hyped as a young player "the next Ernie Banks" (92-94),
2) highly praised in first few years (95-98),
3) period of "being taken down a few notches" due to just-noticed defiencies (e.g., infidelity, attitude) in his prime years (99-03),
4) a period of generally unnoticed excellence (04-07) ... since June 2006 Chipper leads the MLB w/ a .350 avg and a 653 slugging percentage which is amazing.
5) this year or next, he will be entering into the "glorified elder statesman" stage (aka "the Favreal stage"). This is usually marked by a decline in statistical performance, but an odd increase in favorable attention.
What it means for the O'Jimmies: The Braves should easily win 80 games, which makes players in their lineup attractive for the team-based stats (wins, saves, RBI) as well as whatever they might do individually. McCann will likely be overpriced due to position scarcity. Teixeira is a reasonable power pick. Francouer is less reasonable. I'd pass on Kotsay, Glavine, and whoever gets the 5th starter job. Just have to hope Smoltzie stays a productive O'Jimmy yet again and that Hampton stays healthy and can fill the $1 SP who doesn't hurt you too bad slot (see Moyer, Jamie). Gonzalez would be a good reserve pick.
C: Brian McCann - Only 24. Stats took a tumble last year, but still was a top 3 catcher in the NL. Only 24. Should improve. AVAIL (topper).
1B: Mark Texiera - Dependable middle-of-the-order run producer. Hit an otherwordly .509 w/ runners in scoring position last year. AVAIL.
2B: Kelly Johnson - Former O'Jimmy who blossomed last year. Wore down a little in Sept. which depressed his final stats. BARF keep.
SS: Yunel Escobar - Exceptional rookie season. Improved as year went along. Not much pop now, but could come. EMPIRE keep.
3B: Chipper Jones - Still one of the best players in baseball when healthy. At 36, durability not likely to improve, but 350-400 exceptional AB are guaranteed. JUST keeper.
LF: Matt Diaz - Some uncertainty here. May platoon Diaz w/ Brandon Jones or Josh Anderson. Diaz pounds LHP, mediocre vs RHP. JUST keep?
CF: Mark Kotsay - Coming off back surgery. Reportedly healthy. 32 years old. Last good fantasy season was 2004. Don't see much here. AVAIL.
RF: Jeff Francouer - Only 24. Good power, OBP liability. Expect his HRs to increase and should have RBI opps aplenty. AVAIL (topper).
SP1: Tim Hudson - 3rd season in ATL was best by far. Good bet to win 15 games w/ above average ERA/WHIP. GOODF keep?
SP2: John Smoltz - Future Hall-of-Famer, Lifetime WHIP ~ 1.15. Still K's 6-7 per game. How long can he keep it up? O'JIMMIES keep.
SP3: Tom Glavine - Watched him alot last year as an O'Jimmy. If he can't get batters to chase offspeed/away, he has nothing else. May get wins but will hurt your WHIP/ERA. AVAIL.
SP4: Mike Hampton - Missed 2.5 seasons w/ elbow problems. Then hurt his hammy during 1st inning of winter ball. Reportedly healthy now. Never a big K guy & always walks too many. Intriguing though for $1 on this team. O'JIMMIES keep?
SP5: Jo-Jo Reyes, Chuck James, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Bennett - The Braves think all 4 of these guys are MLB pitchers. James may not be ready on Opening Day. Jurrjens is the big time prospect but needs development (only 21). Bennett will probably end up in the pen. Reyes then should get a shot. Didn't impress last year in limited duty, but minor league success and Bobby Cox are in his corner. Reyes & James are possible HAZE keepers.
CLS: Rafael Soriano - VERY solid closer. BSOX keep.
Alt CLS: Peter Moylan, Mike Gonzalez: Gonzalez is a stud when healthy. Looking good in ST but not expected back until June. Moylan's a decent set up guy.
Bench: Brandon Jones - 24 year old. Athletic w/ power/speed. Solid stats in AA/AAA. Improving. Longshot to be a breakout fantasy pick in 2008.
Bench: Josh Anderson - Cheap speed. 40 SB in AAA. Not much else.
Prospects: Jordan Schaefer - CF, probably in 2009. 20/20 potential. Profiles similar to Kotsay, IMO.
Dolberry's Musings on the Braves: I've always liked Chipper Jones. He was one of the first players ever drafted by the short-lived Candolwick Clarks (Stephen & my roto team in Chicago). As many of you know, APD was called Lil' Chipper when he was in his fetal stage. His career has followed the typical 5-stage superstar arc:
1) highly hyped as a young player "the next Ernie Banks" (92-94),
2) highly praised in first few years (95-98),
3) period of "being taken down a few notches" due to just-noticed defiencies (e.g., infidelity, attitude) in his prime years (99-03),
4) a period of generally unnoticed excellence (04-07) ... since June 2006 Chipper leads the MLB w/ a .350 avg and a 653 slugging percentage which is amazing.
5) this year or next, he will be entering into the "glorified elder statesman" stage (aka "the Favreal stage"). This is usually marked by a decline in statistical performance, but an odd increase in favorable attention.
What it means for the O'Jimmies: The Braves should easily win 80 games, which makes players in their lineup attractive for the team-based stats (wins, saves, RBI) as well as whatever they might do individually. McCann will likely be overpriced due to position scarcity. Teixeira is a reasonable power pick. Francouer is less reasonable. I'd pass on Kotsay, Glavine, and whoever gets the 5th starter job. Just have to hope Smoltzie stays a productive O'Jimmy yet again and that Hampton stays healthy and can fill the $1 SP who doesn't hurt you too bad slot (see Moyer, Jamie). Gonzalez would be a good reserve pick.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
What I did on my blogging vacation
Yo yo bloggafficianados, what is happening?!?
(awkward silence)
Right, this isn't an interactive medium. A little rusty here.
It seems we all have only a finite amount of energy to spend in a day. We make choices as to how we expend that energy. Obviously, Dolberry hasn't been investing his energy on the DCV (or any other blog, for that matter). Most of my energy seems to be going to work lately, which seems strange to say. Anyway, almost all of my projects are going well (i.e., almost finished), so hopefully that devotion will be on the wane shortly.
Also, I've been trying to get in shape. Have been exercising a lot and eating less, but I haven't dropped much weight. Think there's some sort of muscle-to-fat thing going on ... yeah, let's go w/ that. I did do an unintentional daylong triathlon on President's Day, running 3 miles at 9p on Sunday night, swimming 1 mile at 9a Monday, & biking 15 miles at 1p Monday. Anyway, this exercising thing seems to take more out of me than it used to take (and certainly more than the sitting I'd grown too accustomed to doing).
I've been following the election somewhat closely. Either way it turns out, I think we'll have a really good President. There are multiple good choices. I was thinking about making the DCV a purely political blog. Here's the sort of priceless witticisms you would get on a political DCV.
What else ... of course it's the time of year where I start to work (& it is work) on fantasy baseball preparation. I'm in a Diamond Mind league where the draft has started and we're only a few weeks from El Cueto's and Dolberry's O'Jimmies draft. So, over the next few weeks I'll be blogging on the upcoming 2008 NL season ... that way I'll be blogging and doing the necessary legwork to be ready for Rotisserie. In Michael Scott, terms that is a win-win-win. So, Atlanta Braves you are up tomorrow.
Anyway, I hope all you guys are doing GRR ... GRR ... GRRRR ... ate.
(awkward silence)
Right, this isn't an interactive medium. A little rusty here.
It seems we all have only a finite amount of energy to spend in a day. We make choices as to how we expend that energy. Obviously, Dolberry hasn't been investing his energy on the DCV (or any other blog, for that matter). Most of my energy seems to be going to work lately, which seems strange to say. Anyway, almost all of my projects are going well (i.e., almost finished), so hopefully that devotion will be on the wane shortly.
Also, I've been trying to get in shape. Have been exercising a lot and eating less, but I haven't dropped much weight. Think there's some sort of muscle-to-fat thing going on ... yeah, let's go w/ that. I did do an unintentional daylong triathlon on President's Day, running 3 miles at 9p on Sunday night, swimming 1 mile at 9a Monday, & biking 15 miles at 1p Monday. Anyway, this exercising thing seems to take more out of me than it used to take (and certainly more than the sitting I'd grown too accustomed to doing).
I've been following the election somewhat closely. Either way it turns out, I think we'll have a really good President. There are multiple good choices. I was thinking about making the DCV a purely political blog. Here's the sort of priceless witticisms you would get on a political DCV.
- The Democrats say they want to bring the troops home next year, but say that McCain is ok w/ them staying for 100 years. Now Dolberry is not a military strategist by any means, but I don't think those troops are going to be particularly effective when they're 125. I side w/ the Dems on this issue. Once you hit retirement age, you should be able to come home.
- I side w/ the Reps on this one, though. If I understand it, the surge isn't working because the goal of it was to buy the fledgling Iraqi legislature time to take the necessary steps to form an effective working government. Hillary said they've taken small steps, but they've haven't shown enough progress to warrant the U.S. staying there. Dolberry is just thankful that there's no stabilizing third-party basing their support to our country based on the productiveness of our representatives in D.C. (Roger Clemens hearings notwithstanding).
What else ... of course it's the time of year where I start to work (& it is work) on fantasy baseball preparation. I'm in a Diamond Mind league where the draft has started and we're only a few weeks from El Cueto's and Dolberry's O'Jimmies draft. So, over the next few weeks I'll be blogging on the upcoming 2008 NL season ... that way I'll be blogging and doing the necessary legwork to be ready for Rotisserie. In Michael Scott, terms that is a win-win-win. So, Atlanta Braves you are up tomorrow.
Anyway, I hope all you guys are doing GRR ... GRR ... GRRRR ... ate.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Great article
Sorry I haven't been posting much lately. All is well w/ the Dolberrys.
Here's a REALLY cool article on baseball, if you're into such things. By far, the best piece of writing I've ever seen on espn.com and it has nothing to do w/ Brian McNamee, Andy Pettitte, or Roger Clemens' nanny.
Have a great week!
Here's a REALLY cool article on baseball, if you're into such things. By far, the best piece of writing I've ever seen on espn.com and it has nothing to do w/ Brian McNamee, Andy Pettitte, or Roger Clemens' nanny.
Have a great week!
Monday, February 04, 2008
Fun Weekend
Friday: Off from work. Did my first double workout of the year (ran 2 miles, swam 1000 yds). Picked APD up from school and went here and then to the U2 3D movie. Dolberry's review: Excellent. Awesome music. Cool effects.
Saturday: Went out to Asheboro for a combined IM/APD b-day party. Got to play Guitar Hero for the first time. I pretty much rock at it, esp. "Cherub Rock" and "I Ran". IM came back to our house for a sleepover & brought his Playstation 2 with him which was fun.
Sunday: Biked home from church ... always fun. Then, we had our own mini-Super Bowl party w/ the orange dip and chips, plus chicken wings. Mmmmm, very good. The game was worth watching, which was nice.
Hope everyone else's was equally as nice.
30 days 'til Spring Training.
Saturday: Went out to Asheboro for a combined IM/APD b-day party. Got to play Guitar Hero for the first time. I pretty much rock at it, esp. "Cherub Rock" and "I Ran". IM came back to our house for a sleepover & brought his Playstation 2 with him which was fun.
Sunday: Biked home from church ... always fun. Then, we had our own mini-Super Bowl party w/ the orange dip and chips, plus chicken wings. Mmmmm, very good. The game was worth watching, which was nice.
Hope everyone else's was equally as nice.
30 days 'til Spring Training.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
BREAKING BLOG NEWS: Bus Accident in Apex
The bus I was riding this morning was involved in an accident. A Chevy S10 pulled out in front of the bus & we hit it at 35-40 mph. Amazingly, despite all the glass being blown out of the pickup & the whole driver's side being crumpled in, the truck driver walked away w/ only an apparent concussion. I was fine. Banged my knee on the seat in front of me, but hardly even sore.
Update: (not really all that much to this story)
I'd just gotten on the bus, gotten seated, & was opening up the paper when I could feel the bus slamming on the brakes. I looked up ... there was a car in front of us ... and there was no way we were going to miss it. We hit the truck right in the driver's side door. It blew his back window out, blew out at least one of his tires, & brought us to a quick stop as well. I slid up my seat whacking my right knee on the plastic seat in front of me. No real big deal for the bus. (I was the only one on it beside the driver.)
Apparently the driver thought the bus was going to make a right turn and went ahead and turned in front of us. He said the bus had his turn signal on. Actually, I guess, the bus had its flashers on, still from crossing train tracks just before picking me up.
I got "interviewed" by the same police officer from the deer incident (she didn't recognize me), but I didn't really see anything. All total, 1 fire truck, 1 EMS truck, 1 Fire/Rescue, and 1 police car responded. Every one was very nice & professional. The bus driver did a good job too, though he was clearly shaken up.
They said the truck driver probably had a concussion. He was trying to call his wife, but couldn't remember her number. I really don't know how he wasn't more badly hurt. God was watching out for him no doubt.
Update: (not really all that much to this story)
I'd just gotten on the bus, gotten seated, & was opening up the paper when I could feel the bus slamming on the brakes. I looked up ... there was a car in front of us ... and there was no way we were going to miss it. We hit the truck right in the driver's side door. It blew his back window out, blew out at least one of his tires, & brought us to a quick stop as well. I slid up my seat whacking my right knee on the plastic seat in front of me. No real big deal for the bus. (I was the only one on it beside the driver.)
Apparently the driver thought the bus was going to make a right turn and went ahead and turned in front of us. He said the bus had his turn signal on. Actually, I guess, the bus had its flashers on, still from crossing train tracks just before picking me up.
I got "interviewed" by the same police officer from the deer incident (she didn't recognize me), but I didn't really see anything. All total, 1 fire truck, 1 EMS truck, 1 Fire/Rescue, and 1 police car responded. Every one was very nice & professional. The bus driver did a good job too, though he was clearly shaken up.
They said the truck driver probably had a concussion. He was trying to call his wife, but couldn't remember her number. I really don't know how he wasn't more badly hurt. God was watching out for him no doubt.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Live Blog: Snow Day!
In the history of the DCV, there have only been two occasions momentous enough to warrant the "Live Blog" treatment. One of these ("My Night at O'Hare") wasn't even a truly live blog since I didn't have internet connection through a lot of it ... it was more of a tape-delay. The other was the Louisville - West Virginia football game of 2006. (This was back when both Louisville and WVU had football programs.) It was a BIG game as you may recall and the DCV "Live Blog" treatment brought enough luck to the Cards to pull them through.
It is, in part, this desire for a little additional input from Lady Fortune that the live blogging procedures have been cranked up here at the DCV, because we want to see some snow and the atmosphere may not have it in it w/o some additional blog-generated providence.
9:39a: The Dolberry Winter Weather Prediction Centre is lowering its original snow prediction of 4.7" back down to 4.2". Uncertainty is high with this event and thus we are suspending our usual procedure of predicting snow to 3 decimal places w/in 24 hours of the event. We apologize for any inconvenience.
9:42a: Last fall, Relient K came out w/ a Christmas album and while most of the songs had been previously released, it did come with a shiny new, typically-clever RK title ... Let It Snow Baby, Let It Rein Deer. Well, at present in Apex, it is 37.0 F and raining. Normally, if it's 37 in Raleigh, you're not anywhere close to snow, but cold air is on its way. Needs to hurry before the precip leaves. It has dropped 0.6 degrees in the last 30 minutes. Let it SNOW, baby!
9:59a: Part of the reason I want it to snow so badly is that we bought a sled yesterday. According to the cashier, half the town of Cary bought sleds yesterday. (I think we'll have to view that as an unofficial tally.) Anyway, me and the beautiful KMD were out shopping for sleds. We tried Dick's first and all they had were lousy snow intertubes and they were like 20 bucks. "Give me a break!" stormed Dolberry out of the store w/ the beautiful KMD in tow. Then, the beautiful KMD (shortened to bKMD for the rest of the "Live Blog") said sometimes Linens and Things sells sleds. Dolberry smelled a rat here. "I'm not going to Linens and Things!" stormed Dolberry. But since we were right by a Sled, Bath, and Beyond we went into that one. Whoa! What a zoo. A new shipment of sleds had just come in and there was a frenzy of maybe 3-4 shoppers looking over the limited inventory. They had some plastic orange contraption that looked like it would maybe be strong enough to carry MoJo down a slope that was $9.99. bKMD suggested that one would be fine, but the Sled, Bath, and Beyond saleslady asked Dolberry how old the child using the sled would be. "Ten." I lied. ('Cause you know it's a 41 year old heading down the hill first ... for testing purposes ya know.) With the smooth skill of a car salesman she steered the gullible Dolberry over to the plastic discs that were running for $14.99. bKMD thought Dolberry was being taken for a snow ride and said so when the saleslady had walked away. Meanwhile, the Lexus of sleds had caught Dolberry's eye. A shiny new, half-sled / half boogie board device. Dolberry was entranced ... and sought the saleslady out. "How much is this one?" he timidly inquired. "29.99". Oh my. We then spent more time debating the purchase of this sled than we did purchasing our car. In the end, w/ a severe case of buyer's remorse setting in, we went with the fancy model, but when the cashier rang it up, she said that'll be $16. SWEET! So, I need it to snow.
10:08: Update from the bKMD, in this case the "b" stands for "brave" who has ventured out into the storm and reports it is still raining, but that some of the raindrops look "flaky" when they hit the windshield.
10:14: Had to take a break from "Snow Day: Live Blog" to buy our Spring Training Reds tix. We're down the first base line. 4th row for the Yankees game on Thursday. 6th row for the Pirates game on Friday. We're seeing the Marlins @ Red Sox in Fort Myers on Saturday. And then we're eating cheesesteaks on Sunday (while the Phils play the Blue Jays). Buying Reds tix was about 50x easier than buying Red Sox tickets. When I observed this to bKMD, she said "That's a good thing about not winning the World Series."
10:28: The Admiral (NOAA) does a whole bunch of model simulations (21 to be exact) every 6 hours as part of an exercise he calls the short-range ensemble forecast. Then he takes the average of all those runs and bases a snowfall estimate based on that. Here's a plot of what the Admiral expects in the three hour period between 1-4p.
10:29: So that would be a solid 1.25" of snow in that three-hour period. Plus, they have us getting snow in other periods as well, for a total of about 2". Or just enough to sled on.
10:32: The Admiral then taunts snow lovers everywhere by cherry-picking the highest of the 21 ensemble members and plotting that one. Here it is, the most optimistic of the 21 is still prediction a whole bunch of snow. Here it is.
10:35: So that'd be a good 3" inches in a 3-hour period this afternoon, w/ other 3-hour periods having snow as well tallying up to about 7". So the mean is 2", the max is 7", and the min is presumably the usual bupkis (zero).
10:40: Watching the Weather Channel. They are on full alert for the snow in Atlanta. Snow far they've shown a closeup of Jim Cantore's sleeve which had a few sleet particles on it. Then they showed a sky cam of Atlanta where a few flakes were falling. The funny Bill Kennely said, "Hey, I see one! Wait there's two! (pause) Three!"
10:43: As seen in the comments section, but I'll put it up here as well, BK Weather has also lowered there forecast accumulation, but are still calling for a solid 4".
10:44: Temperature update: It is now 38.1 in Apex. That is most disappointing. Realistically, it looks like the switchover will be between 12p and 2p.
10:51: Here's what the radar looks like now. There will be a brief gap in the precip here between 11a -1p. Then we have to hope the main bulk of precip doesn't slide too far to the SE.
10:52: Snowing pretty good in Atlanta now.
11:03: The new RDU forecast discussion is out! It's very long. And very thorough. I think they may have brought the Admiral into write this one. Bottom line is that, they're growing increasingly skeptical about much snow in the western part of the forecast area. They're thinking there will be a sweet spot of higher snow (2"-3", they imply) from eastern Wake Co up to Louisburg and Roanoke Rapids.
11:14: The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model ... the one that the Admiral runs most often (every hour! don't know when the guy sleeps) and only runs out to 12 hours ... seems to be on board for some snow. Two inches between 2p and 8p.
11:28: Has officially stopped raining in Apex. Gap shouldn't last too long according to radar trends. More rain around 12:15p?
11:59: It's not raining and the temperature's warming (38.7F).
12:01: I'm glad the BK forecasters are still onboard here. Atlanta has picked up a quick quarter inch, and that precip mass is still coming this way. Tentative sledding time is projected to be 5:15pm. We're going to the Apex Comm Park if the BK forecasters are interested.
12:07: Where IS it snowing at present? Alabama (Birmingham, Aniston, Montgomery) and Georgia (Atlanta, Marietta, Gainesville), and Andrews North Carolina. I don't think any of these places are w/in a 6 hour drive of here.
12:13: Where IS the cold air? The wind direction has changed in Winston-Salem from E to N over the past two hours and the dew point has dropped 10 degrees. When the next batch of precip hits this air, there will be more evaporative cooling and we should see temps drop to 32-33 very quickly. The front (as evidenced by windshift and dew point drop) is through Greensboro where the dewpoint is 20 and approaching Raleigh, where the dew point is still 34.
12:16: Where IS the precipitation? It's coming back. Radar trends would say by 12:35 we should be back into the rain and then it should precipitate for sometime ... 'til about 8p. Need that front to hurry up!
12:18: The bKMD wanted me to mention she whupped me in a Sudoku match in the "Snow Day: Live Blog" lag between 11:28 and 11:59. Duly noted.
12:20: Good news! The dew point is dropping quickly at Chapel Hill ... down to 25. Sharp dew point gradient between there and the 34 at RDU. Usually once the cold dry air gets over the Appalachians it rolls down the Piedmont pretty quickly.
12:32: First sign of snow? Statesville NC is reporting "unknown precipitation". It's an automated monitor, so it's probably some rain/snow mix. Temp is still 41 there, so it's not much snow.
12:50: DCV Programming Update: Dolberry has to run IM and APD up to their Heroclix tournament at 1pm. I will provide an eyewitness account of the weather when I return. After that we have a 1:45 lunch appt. So updates may be sporadic over the next few hours. Hopefully the loyal DCV readers will manage.
12:53: Light drizzle in East Apex. 39.2 degrees.
1:11: Update. Big crowd @ Heroclix tournament. Maybe 8-10 kids. Oh, wrong update. Drizzle and dropping temps ... down to 38.7F.
1:16: Winds have shifted to N at RDU and dew point is starting to drop.
1:40: The best thing we have going for us is the radar. Still a lot of precip to our SW heading NE. I still think we should see snow before 3p.
1:43: FLAKES! ACTUAL SNOW FLAKES IN EAST APEX. Mixed in w/ rain. Will be late for 1:45 mtg. Report back later.
3:21: It is snowing in east Apex, but this snow is snow only in the strictest sense of the word. It is snow that has adhered to the letter of the law, but not to the spirit of the law. One failing of this snow, in particular, is its reluctance to accumulate on the ground. Instead it is melting immediately, which is not good for sledding purposes. It's been snowing for about 1 hour in East Apex and our accumulation is up to 0.000" so far. I'm a little underwhelmed to this point.
3:54: Snow now sticking in East Apex as well. Approximate accumulation 0.05" and still coming down.
4:05: Picture of us in snow.
4:29: Still snowing. Temps are down to 32.2F. All snow to this point should be accumulating, on the grass anyway. Sledding at 5:30 looks less and less likely. Maybe 7p sledding? Dolberry is down 14-3 at halftime in our snow football. Footing is nonexistent.
4:57: Still snowing lightly. Radar trends show increasing precip to our west. Still expect a good 1-1.5" to come down between 5:15 and 7:30p. Temp is down to 31.6 in east Apex.
5:28p: Still snowing. Maybe up to 0.2" of snow in east Apex.
6:36: Filing under lesson learned ... 0.5" of snow is not really enough to go sledding. We managed about 5 runs down the hill at the softball fields. At $16 for the sled, that works out to $3.20 per ride ... or about State Fair prices. The beautiful KMD said it was worth $16 to see my ride which ended up w/ me caterpaulting sideways into the big mud puddle at the bottom of the hill. I don't know why she's like that sometimes. Anyway, we got to slide around some and the anticipation is most of the fun part anyway.
It is, in part, this desire for a little additional input from Lady Fortune that the live blogging procedures have been cranked up here at the DCV, because we want to see some snow and the atmosphere may not have it in it w/o some additional blog-generated providence.
9:39a: The Dolberry Winter Weather Prediction Centre is lowering its original snow prediction of 4.7" back down to 4.2". Uncertainty is high with this event and thus we are suspending our usual procedure of predicting snow to 3 decimal places w/in 24 hours of the event. We apologize for any inconvenience.
9:42a: Last fall, Relient K came out w/ a Christmas album and while most of the songs had been previously released, it did come with a shiny new, typically-clever RK title ... Let It Snow Baby, Let It Rein Deer. Well, at present in Apex, it is 37.0 F and raining. Normally, if it's 37 in Raleigh, you're not anywhere close to snow, but cold air is on its way. Needs to hurry before the precip leaves. It has dropped 0.6 degrees in the last 30 minutes. Let it SNOW, baby!
9:59a: Part of the reason I want it to snow so badly is that we bought a sled yesterday. According to the cashier, half the town of Cary bought sleds yesterday. (I think we'll have to view that as an unofficial tally.) Anyway, me and the beautiful KMD were out shopping for sleds. We tried Dick's first and all they had were lousy snow intertubes and they were like 20 bucks. "Give me a break!" stormed Dolberry out of the store w/ the beautiful KMD in tow. Then, the beautiful KMD (shortened to bKMD for the rest of the "Live Blog") said sometimes Linens and Things sells sleds. Dolberry smelled a rat here. "I'm not going to Linens and Things!" stormed Dolberry. But since we were right by a Sled, Bath, and Beyond we went into that one. Whoa! What a zoo. A new shipment of sleds had just come in and there was a frenzy of maybe 3-4 shoppers looking over the limited inventory. They had some plastic orange contraption that looked like it would maybe be strong enough to carry MoJo down a slope that was $9.99. bKMD suggested that one would be fine, but the Sled, Bath, and Beyond saleslady asked Dolberry how old the child using the sled would be. "Ten." I lied. ('Cause you know it's a 41 year old heading down the hill first ... for testing purposes ya know.) With the smooth skill of a car salesman she steered the gullible Dolberry over to the plastic discs that were running for $14.99. bKMD thought Dolberry was being taken for a snow ride and said so when the saleslady had walked away. Meanwhile, the Lexus of sleds had caught Dolberry's eye. A shiny new, half-sled / half boogie board device. Dolberry was entranced ... and sought the saleslady out. "How much is this one?" he timidly inquired. "29.99". Oh my. We then spent more time debating the purchase of this sled than we did purchasing our car. In the end, w/ a severe case of buyer's remorse setting in, we went with the fancy model, but when the cashier rang it up, she said that'll be $16. SWEET! So, I need it to snow.
10:08: Update from the bKMD, in this case the "b" stands for "brave" who has ventured out into the storm and reports it is still raining, but that some of the raindrops look "flaky" when they hit the windshield.
10:14: Had to take a break from "Snow Day: Live Blog" to buy our Spring Training Reds tix. We're down the first base line. 4th row for the Yankees game on Thursday. 6th row for the Pirates game on Friday. We're seeing the Marlins @ Red Sox in Fort Myers on Saturday. And then we're eating cheesesteaks on Sunday (while the Phils play the Blue Jays). Buying Reds tix was about 50x easier than buying Red Sox tickets. When I observed this to bKMD, she said "That's a good thing about not winning the World Series."
10:28: The Admiral (NOAA) does a whole bunch of model simulations (21 to be exact) every 6 hours as part of an exercise he calls the short-range ensemble forecast. Then he takes the average of all those runs and bases a snowfall estimate based on that. Here's a plot of what the Admiral expects in the three hour period between 1-4p.
10:29: So that would be a solid 1.25" of snow in that three-hour period. Plus, they have us getting snow in other periods as well, for a total of about 2". Or just enough to sled on.
10:32: The Admiral then taunts snow lovers everywhere by cherry-picking the highest of the 21 ensemble members and plotting that one. Here it is, the most optimistic of the 21 is still prediction a whole bunch of snow. Here it is.
10:35: So that'd be a good 3" inches in a 3-hour period this afternoon, w/ other 3-hour periods having snow as well tallying up to about 7". So the mean is 2", the max is 7", and the min is presumably the usual bupkis (zero).
10:40: Watching the Weather Channel. They are on full alert for the snow in Atlanta. Snow far they've shown a closeup of Jim Cantore's sleeve which had a few sleet particles on it. Then they showed a sky cam of Atlanta where a few flakes were falling. The funny Bill Kennely said, "Hey, I see one! Wait there's two! (pause) Three!"
10:43: As seen in the comments section, but I'll put it up here as well, BK Weather has also lowered there forecast accumulation, but are still calling for a solid 4".
10:44: Temperature update: It is now 38.1 in Apex. That is most disappointing. Realistically, it looks like the switchover will be between 12p and 2p.
10:51: Here's what the radar looks like now. There will be a brief gap in the precip here between 11a -1p. Then we have to hope the main bulk of precip doesn't slide too far to the SE.
10:52: Snowing pretty good in Atlanta now.
11:03: The new RDU forecast discussion is out! It's very long. And very thorough. I think they may have brought the Admiral into write this one. Bottom line is that, they're growing increasingly skeptical about much snow in the western part of the forecast area. They're thinking there will be a sweet spot of higher snow (2"-3", they imply) from eastern Wake Co up to Louisburg and Roanoke Rapids.
11:14: The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model ... the one that the Admiral runs most often (every hour! don't know when the guy sleeps) and only runs out to 12 hours ... seems to be on board for some snow. Two inches between 2p and 8p.
11:28: Has officially stopped raining in Apex. Gap shouldn't last too long according to radar trends. More rain around 12:15p?
11:59: It's not raining and the temperature's warming (38.7F).
12:01: I'm glad the BK forecasters are still onboard here. Atlanta has picked up a quick quarter inch, and that precip mass is still coming this way. Tentative sledding time is projected to be 5:15pm. We're going to the Apex Comm Park if the BK forecasters are interested.
12:07: Where IS it snowing at present? Alabama (Birmingham, Aniston, Montgomery) and Georgia (Atlanta, Marietta, Gainesville), and Andrews North Carolina. I don't think any of these places are w/in a 6 hour drive of here.
12:13: Where IS the cold air? The wind direction has changed in Winston-Salem from E to N over the past two hours and the dew point has dropped 10 degrees. When the next batch of precip hits this air, there will be more evaporative cooling and we should see temps drop to 32-33 very quickly. The front (as evidenced by windshift and dew point drop) is through Greensboro where the dewpoint is 20 and approaching Raleigh, where the dew point is still 34.
12:16: Where IS the precipitation? It's coming back. Radar trends would say by 12:35 we should be back into the rain and then it should precipitate for sometime ... 'til about 8p. Need that front to hurry up!
12:18: The bKMD wanted me to mention she whupped me in a Sudoku match in the "Snow Day: Live Blog" lag between 11:28 and 11:59. Duly noted.
12:20: Good news! The dew point is dropping quickly at Chapel Hill ... down to 25. Sharp dew point gradient between there and the 34 at RDU. Usually once the cold dry air gets over the Appalachians it rolls down the Piedmont pretty quickly.
12:32: First sign of snow? Statesville NC is reporting "unknown precipitation". It's an automated monitor, so it's probably some rain/snow mix. Temp is still 41 there, so it's not much snow.
12:50: DCV Programming Update: Dolberry has to run IM and APD up to their Heroclix tournament at 1pm. I will provide an eyewitness account of the weather when I return. After that we have a 1:45 lunch appt. So updates may be sporadic over the next few hours. Hopefully the loyal DCV readers will manage.
12:53: Light drizzle in East Apex. 39.2 degrees.
1:11: Update. Big crowd @ Heroclix tournament. Maybe 8-10 kids. Oh, wrong update. Drizzle and dropping temps ... down to 38.7F.
1:16: Winds have shifted to N at RDU and dew point is starting to drop.
1:40: The best thing we have going for us is the radar. Still a lot of precip to our SW heading NE. I still think we should see snow before 3p.
1:43: FLAKES! ACTUAL SNOW FLAKES IN EAST APEX. Mixed in w/ rain. Will be late for 1:45 mtg. Report back later.
3:21: It is snowing in east Apex, but this snow is snow only in the strictest sense of the word. It is snow that has adhered to the letter of the law, but not to the spirit of the law. One failing of this snow, in particular, is its reluctance to accumulate on the ground. Instead it is melting immediately, which is not good for sledding purposes. It's been snowing for about 1 hour in East Apex and our accumulation is up to 0.000" so far. I'm a little underwhelmed to this point.
3:54: Snow now sticking in East Apex as well. Approximate accumulation 0.05" and still coming down.
4:05: Picture of us in snow.
4:29: Still snowing. Temps are down to 32.2F. All snow to this point should be accumulating, on the grass anyway. Sledding at 5:30 looks less and less likely. Maybe 7p sledding? Dolberry is down 14-3 at halftime in our snow football. Footing is nonexistent.
4:57: Still snowing lightly. Radar trends show increasing precip to our west. Still expect a good 1-1.5" to come down between 5:15 and 7:30p. Temp is down to 31.6 in east Apex.
5:28p: Still snowing. Maybe up to 0.2" of snow in east Apex.
6:36: Filing under lesson learned ... 0.5" of snow is not really enough to go sledding. We managed about 5 runs down the hill at the softball fields. At $16 for the sled, that works out to $3.20 per ride ... or about State Fair prices. The beautiful KMD said it was worth $16 to see my ride which ended up w/ me caterpaulting sideways into the big mud puddle at the bottom of the hill. I don't know why she's like that sometimes. Anyway, we got to slide around some and the anticipation is most of the fun part anyway.
Friday, January 18, 2008
More BIG Apex News
So, I'm walking to the bus stop last Friday (this Friday I am off) and as I approach the Food Lion I notice an Apex Police car has traffic stopped on Laura Duncan. In the past they've set up roadblocks there to check for driver's licenses, but that seems strange at 7:10am at the peak of high school traffic. Anyway, a school bus is waved through the blockade & then pulls over & opens its door to talk to me. I'm on the sidewalk about 50 yards from where the police are. The bus driver tells me, "You may want to stay there. They've got something going on w/ a deer up ahead."
I'm still a little groggy & this statement is far enough out of the normal realm that all I can manage is a polite "OK. Thanks." and keep walking figuring I'm not afraid of a deer. I take about 5 more steps and the policewoman sees me and says very forcefully, "Sir! BACK UP!".
I'm able to process that and back up the 5 steps I just took.
Then I see the other police officer get out of the patrol car and walk over to the grassy area ahead of me and just off the sidewalk. For the first time, I notice the deer sorting of aimlessly wandering around w/ a clearly injured front leg. The police officer tentatively approached the deer and tried to get him to shoo, even whapping the deer on his hindquarters once. The deer did not obey, presumably unable to comply due to injury.
The officer then gets out his gun. Meanwhile the other officer notices that a crowd is gathering in the Food Lion parking lot to watch. One guy is way out in front of the rest. She tells him, as forcefully as she told me, to move back. He doesn't. After 3 orders that are not obeyed, she goes over there and gets in his face, at which point he does move back.
The male officer points his gun at the deer & fires. The deer does nothing.
He fires again and again and again and then one more time. The deer is clearly agitated but can't go more then 2 or 3 steps in any direction. I'm talking to the bus driver who's left her bus by now (no kids inside, between runs apparently) and she says "How bad a shot is this guy?"
I guess he must have been shooting blanks, cause I don't think they'd fire in a non-emergency w/ that many people around.
He returns to the squad car & then comes back. By this time the deer has fallen down & I was just wishing they would put it out of his/her misery (presumably hit by a car). The officer shoots one more time and about 5 seconds later they wave me and the cars through.
I had to run to catch my bus. The policewoman thanked me for waiting. And I steadfastly did not look to the left when I passed the dead dear.
---------------------------
Other than that ... all is well. Work is extremely busy. Look for two projects I've been involved in to hit the news over the next 6 weeks. Good environmental progress is forthcoming. APD made the Principal's List again which is cool. It's supposed to snow here tomorrow. The Dolberry Centre for Winter Weather Prediction is officially calling for 4.2 inches. This is on the heels of our 0.2" yesterday. If it does snow 4", that'll be our biggest snow in at least 3 years. Hope all readers are going Grrrreeeaaattttt.
I'm still a little groggy & this statement is far enough out of the normal realm that all I can manage is a polite "OK. Thanks." and keep walking figuring I'm not afraid of a deer. I take about 5 more steps and the policewoman sees me and says very forcefully, "Sir! BACK UP!".
I'm able to process that and back up the 5 steps I just took.
Then I see the other police officer get out of the patrol car and walk over to the grassy area ahead of me and just off the sidewalk. For the first time, I notice the deer sorting of aimlessly wandering around w/ a clearly injured front leg. The police officer tentatively approached the deer and tried to get him to shoo, even whapping the deer on his hindquarters once. The deer did not obey, presumably unable to comply due to injury.
The officer then gets out his gun. Meanwhile the other officer notices that a crowd is gathering in the Food Lion parking lot to watch. One guy is way out in front of the rest. She tells him, as forcefully as she told me, to move back. He doesn't. After 3 orders that are not obeyed, she goes over there and gets in his face, at which point he does move back.
The male officer points his gun at the deer & fires. The deer does nothing.
He fires again and again and again and then one more time. The deer is clearly agitated but can't go more then 2 or 3 steps in any direction. I'm talking to the bus driver who's left her bus by now (no kids inside, between runs apparently) and she says "How bad a shot is this guy?"
I guess he must have been shooting blanks, cause I don't think they'd fire in a non-emergency w/ that many people around.
He returns to the squad car & then comes back. By this time the deer has fallen down & I was just wishing they would put it out of his/her misery (presumably hit by a car). The officer shoots one more time and about 5 seconds later they wave me and the cars through.
I had to run to catch my bus. The policewoman thanked me for waiting. And I steadfastly did not look to the left when I passed the dead dear.
---------------------------
Other than that ... all is well. Work is extremely busy. Look for two projects I've been involved in to hit the news over the next 6 weeks. Good environmental progress is forthcoming. APD made the Principal's List again which is cool. It's supposed to snow here tomorrow. The Dolberry Centre for Winter Weather Prediction is officially calling for 4.2 inches. This is on the heels of our 0.2" yesterday. If it does snow 4", that'll be our biggest snow in at least 3 years. Hope all readers are going Grrrreeeaaattttt.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
The less-than-glorious Billikens
Lost 49-20 tonight to a team in the 200s in the RPI. According to ESPN it's the lowest score in the shot-clock era. Awesome!!!! Got to watch most of it over the internet. They earned that record. Not a lot of turnovers, but a splendid assessment of back rim clankers and airballs.Really though, except for the 1st 8 minutes when they only got 1 point ... and those middle 18 minutes where they only got 1 point .... they did exceed a point a minute in the other 14 minutes.
Oh when the saints go marching in ... oh the heck w/ it.
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Book review and a movie review
First, APD made Principal's List again in the 2nd quarter. Yay for him.
Movie Review: Charlie Wilson's War. I liked it.
Book Review: Water for Elephants. I liked it also. Thanks Mom!
Was this just an excuse to post to get my ugly mug a little lower down on the page. Yes.
Have a great Thursday everyone!
Movie Review: Charlie Wilson's War. I liked it.
Book Review: Water for Elephants. I liked it also. Thanks Mom!
Was this just an excuse to post to get my ugly mug a little lower down on the page. Yes.
Have a great Thursday everyone!
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
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