Tropical Storm Hanna #6

The Dolberry Tropical Weather Centre is online early this morning. Hanna came onshore near the NC/SC border ~ 3:30am. Most of the highest winds have been detected by offshore buoys. The highest wind gust I've heard of was a 67 mph gust at Wrightsville Beach.

It was raining hard here when I woke up (slacked off some now), but there's been very little wind (< onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5L0GEQVDOoj64cgxMPv95WOJx6DxFsyXvsf-TW7vtsLGrrZVcUzNjN_xeN6Hs5gUyeLYTQdeKAnHU8pjZKkAj0-t5DHLqMdlTYJfIPi2MA2fG0Px9AsLKQJpGW21YDAzBxgFqvQ/s1600-h/doppler1-640x480.jpg">

Tropical Storm Hanna #5

Hanna is approaching. In an ominous sign, the first rain from the storm occurred in my office when drops of water started falling from the ceiling around 3:15 this afternoon. (I called EPA building support, but they still hadn't come by the time I left. It eventually stopped dripping.) The real rain started around 4p w/ some squally showers. It apparently rained hard while the beautiful KMD & I were at a movie (celebrating our 16th anniversary ... Dolberry is a lucky dude). It kinda sprinked while we drove to dinner. Winds were maybe 7 mph or so.

Anyway, the official forecast here is for gusts of up to 40 mph around sunrise tomorrow. The Weather Channel has us w/ a low risk for power outages.

It looks to me like Hanna is starting to form an eye ... and the hurricane hunters have found that the pressure has dropped to 974 mb. But they haven't found any winds above 74 mph, so it's still a tropical storm. When it gets closer to shore, the Doppler radars should be able to sample what the strongest winds truly are.


There was a tornado warning for a county about 100 miles from here, but that cell dissipated rapidly. We're in a High Wind Warning. The wind is just now starting to pick up some, blowing the blinds periodically.

I'll probably wake up early tomorrow to get some pictures and for APD and I to have our traditional "Hurricane Race" where we race each other around the yard in the height of the heaviest rain and wind. I'm 0-4 in these races, but I haven't had a shot in a few years. Tomorrow is my day.

Tropical Storm Hanna #4

Hanna is still projected to come onshore early Saturday morning near the NC/SC border. The primary change is that the models and the NHC don't see much chance that Hanna strengthens into a hurricane. But it'll be a strong tropical storm. And it'll be fast moving. And it is has a very large wind field. All that should conspire to produce a brief (~6 hours) period of fairly significant winds tomorrow night and early Saturday morning. Could see gusts in the 30-40 mph range which hopefully will do no more than scatter some limbs.

Will be interesting to see how much rain we get. The HPC says Hanna will dump a quick 2-3 inches in our area. Also the SPC says we're slight risk for severe weather, tornadoes presumably.


Tomorrow should be an interesting weather day in Apex. It may even surpass the Great Non-Sticking Blizzard of January 19th as the biggest weather day of the year.

Then all eyes turn to Hurricane Ike. The models have started to lock into a southern track, which is bad news for Florida or Cuba. Climatologically though, most major hurricanes (9 of 10) that are where Ike is tend to miss the U.S. (recurve to sea). I tend to trust climatology more than the models at days 5 and beyond.

Tropical Storm Hanna #3

The models continue to shift ever so slightly east and delay Hanna's passage. The NHC is thinking landfall near the NC/SC line early Saturday morning, but then tracking due north and eventuall northeast. This would likely leave us on the west side of the storm which will be calmer and drier. There's still some spread to the models, so it's not a done deal that we're off the hook.

The NHC expects to issue a hurricane watch for the Carolina coasts tomorrow which will likely cancel Mrs D's girls youth group retreat.

Should have a better idea tomorrow night. Maybe worse news is that the models are starting to show Category 4 Ike making a NWward turn toward day 5. We'll see.

Tropical Storm Hanna #2

Hurricane Hanna got ripped up by shear today, but is still hanging on as a tropical storm. If it can make it another 12-24 hours, the shear should relax somewhat ... allowing Hanna to restrengthen.


The models today seem to have moved the storm south w/ the cluster centered around Savannah GA. Due to the angle of approach of the storm, a small deviation to the south could mean a central FL landfall; conversely, a small deviation to the north could mean a NC landfall.


For reasons not clear to me, the NHC are predicting a landfall near Charleston SC, w/ a track right over Apex around 2am Saturday morning. Anyway, until the storm gets its act together and starts actually moving toward the U.S. ... it's too soon to get too excited.

Hurricane Hanna #1

The above graphic shows the various weather models' predictions of Hurricane Hanna's path. There is a slight shift north in the predicted tracks w/ 4 of the 6 models predicting a South Carolina landfall on Friday afternoon at a strength of ~ Cat 2. Unfortunately, the models aren't that good at days 3-5. Further, the models have struggled w/ this storm thus far. (Maps from the Weather Underground.)


If and when HH hits the Carolinas it's projected to be racing inland pretty quickly. Using NOAA's inland wind model, a Cat 2 hitting the East Coast at a forward speed 12 knots (14 mph) could bring 50-65 kts (57-74 mph) winds along its path well inland (e.g., Apex).

We'll see ...

Fun w/ the Myers-Briggs ...

So, sometime last week (the DCV is running behind ... playing too much PacMan), the beautiful KMD, APD, & I took an online version of the Myers-Briggs test. The results were pretty funny.

Dolberry was an ESFP, aka "The Joker". Here's what they say about ESFPs ...

"As adults, ESFPs lead what might look like "a charmed existence,' even when things are not going well for them. They live with the idea that "the glass is half full" and seem to land on their feet, even when they are not sure how. They usually find a niche for themselves in any situation because of their spontaneity and flexibility. For ESFPs bring a liveliness to a groups to which they belong. Life is meant to be enjoyed and is not taken too seriously."

That does kinda sound like Dolberry. My preferred jobs include: hair stylist. Jobs not suited for ESFPs ... physical scientist (which is what i am). Hmmmmm. Famous ESFPs include Ronald Reagan AND Bill Clinton. Famous fictional ESFPs: this guy.

---

The beautiful KMD was an ISFJ, aka "The Nurturer". Here's what they say about ISFJs ...

"ISFJs are super-dependable and seldom are happy working in situations where rules are constantly changing. Their major need to be of service to others leads them into occupations such as nursing, teaching, secretarial work, medical practice (especially general practice), librarian work, and middle management administrative jobs. They relate well to people who need them, for example, the sick, the ignorant, students, and the "boss." Much satisfaction comes to them when they are taking care of the needs of another and they render the service gently and helpfully. While ISFJs are super-dependable, they may be fascinated by and attracted to the irresponsible, the lush, the glutton."

That does kinda sound like the beautiful KMD, though the part about the glutton was a bit of a low blow. I'm just big-boned. Anyway, preferred jobs include: homemaker/teacher. Jobs not suited for ISFJs ... rock star. Famous ISFJs include Kristy Yamaguchi and Queen Elizabeth II. Famous fictional ISFJs: this lady.

---

APD was an INFP, aka "The Dreamer". Here's what they say about those people:

INFP children often create their own fantasy world and live very much within it. They may daydream about what is important to them, and sometimes others wonder if they are in touch with reality. They often get lost in their thoughts and books, and may develop a special ability in communicating, such as writing. They are somewhat reserved, especially in new situations.

Sounds like 3 for 3. Good jobs for INFPs ... an architect (which is what APD wants to be). Bad jobs ... office worker. Famous INFPs include J.R.R. Tolkien and Mr. Rogers. Famous fictional INFP ... it's not Bart or Lisa, instead this kid.


What personality type are DCV readers? Feel free to comment below.

The DCV now featuring Pac Man!

Eat your heart out rival blogs!

Public service announcement from the DCV

The DCV has it's own spinoff now.

If you're as tired of reading about Dolberry as I am tired of writing about him, then perhaps you also will enjoy my new blogging venture. It's the story of a high school basketball coach, but hopefully it'll be about more than that.

Please check it out & let me know what you think. Thanks!

What I did on my blogging vacation (part 2)

Whoa, ho, I've been busy. Too busy to blog that's for sure. What have I been doing? Hmmm. Lots of stuff. Let's see what I can remember. Bear w/ me a bit, here.

Well, let's see, there was yesterday. Yesterday, I played softball. It was the State Church Tournament. 12 teams. We lost our first game, then won the next two, then lost the last one. I was 8 for 15 on the day which is about what I always do. It was a lot of fun, as always.

Before that ... I remember I worked a full week. That was tiring.

Before that ... we went on vacation to Emerald Isle w/ most of the Dolberry family. That was a lot of fun. Maybe even more than softball.

Before that ... I went to Colorado for work. That was fun and tiring. I drove into Rocky Mountain National Park which was a cool experience. If I was a better blogger, I'd have written about it and taken some pictures.

Before that ... we went to Louisville, Boone, and Evansville. It was really cool to see all the people we saw. Oh, and it was fun and tiring.

Please view immediately for important information!

Life Episodes: The Fleetwood Mac concert

In the continuing series of "Life Episodes", we're entering into the way back machine and turning the dial all the way back to November 7th, 1979. Your hero, Dolberry, has recently turned 13 and is in 7th grade at Myers Middle School.

(Aside here: my favorite memory of Myers Middle ... and admittedly it's the best from a small sample of happy memories ... is the week I got to walk home from school to Gma & Gpa Fitz house because I was staying there while my Mom & Dad were in ... Las Vegas. This (ahem) "hands-off" nature to parenting actually sets up the rest of the Life Episode pretty well. Second favorite memory was when Mrs Coffey gave me 5 demerits ... but you've all heard THAT story.)

Anyway, my best friend in those days was David DuBard (David, if you google search your name ... hey we all do it ... and get this link ... e-mail me ... hope all is well.) One of the radio stations in Louisville was running a "Magic Bus" contest. Winners got to invite a friend to accompany them on a bus ride to the Fleetwood Mac concert at the Riverfront Coliseum. Well, David was the 43rd caller (or whatever) and won two seats on the bus and he invited Dolberry to go as well.

Dolberry agreed to go, fully expecting his parents to sensibly veto this decision, thus allowing our hero to save face w/ his peers and at the same time not risk his barely-just-having-gotten-started life w/ 10,000 addled devotees of a mediocre group of 70's hippie rock. For whatever reason they did not. I have a vague recollection they were in Reno over that period ... but I could be wrong on that.

Now keep in mind, at age 13 Dolberry had been to exactly two concerts:

1) Joe Wise in a church gym w/ my entire fam (except El Cueto who was at the riverboat if I remember right), where we rocked out to numbers like "The Epic of Peanut Butter and Jelly" and "The Grizzleback Snookerhog", and

2) John Denver and the Starland Vocal Band w/ my Mom. (I think we got the tix from her bookie.)

Bottom line: I may not have been ready for the Fleetwood Mac Tusk tour. I know a fair number of 7th graders ... some of them read this blog. Frankly, I wouldn't trust one of them to point out Cincinnati on a map ... let alone travel two hours back and forth there on their own for a rock concert.

Anyway, I recall heading out from home on that Wednesday night ... a school night no less (!) ... telling Kathy & Kris that there was Mac & Cheese in the cupboard, to keep a good eye on Carrie, and that I'd be back sometime around 1 am. I walked up to that old Sub Shop near that rundown hotel near the intersection of I-64 and Hurstbourne. We met some of our compatriots on the magic bus and it was at best a "wayward" contingent. On the bus, our chaperone told us "that only cigarettes were allowed on the bus ... save the good stuff for the concert". Dolberry stood up in his bus seat and said "I'm OUT." I called my Mom and Dad (crying like a little girl) at the Bingo Hall and asked to be picked up.

There was a lot of fallout from that decision. 1. Dolberry grew a little bit by making a wise decision on his own and truth-be-told (unlike the rest of this post) those are the only experiences we really learn from ... when we're accountable for our own actions. 2. Dolberry was mocked by most of his 7th grade peers for a considerable period. 3. Dolberry's parents "re-engaged" w/ their parental responsibilities ... all is great now and I can't wait to see them at Churchill Downs this weekend.

(There was a tragic epilogue to the story. A little less than 4 weeks later, 11 people were killed at Riverfront Coliseum at a Who concert when the crowd attempted to storm the entry doors before the arena opened. Very sad.)


Anyway, let's end this blog bit on a happier and more traditional note ... w/ Dolberry's Top 10 Attended Concerts ever:

10. Big Country's New Year's Eve show at the Barrowlands (didn't actually attend ... but have the CD)
9. The Rainmakers @ Park West w/ Stephen in 1989?
8. Newsboys/Toby Mac/Relient K at Kings Dominion in 2005 w/ tbKMD and APD
7. Warren Zevon at the Park West in Chicago w/ Stephen and friends from EPA R5
6. Switchfoot in big old open field at Campbell Univ w/ the TCC YG
5. The Rainmakers in a "private concert" at WXRT studios w/ Stephen
4. John Mellencamp w/ the Super Sisters and Stephen in Indianapolis
3. John Denver w/ my Mom in Louisville a long long time ago
2. Switchfoot, Relient K, & Ruth w/ the beautiful KMD and APD last fall in Winston-Salem
1. U2 in St. Louis w/ Matt Jung

Dolberry Days

A recap of my last few weeks.

May 30: Blue (Apex) loses 14-7
May 31: Blue loses 12-11
Jun 1: Blue wins 10-7

Jun 3: Gold (Cary) loses 19-18

Jun 5: (DH) Gold wins one and loses one
Jun 6: Blue wins 18-1 to earn #3 seed in tournament (finished 8-7)
Jun 7: (DH) Blue beat #6 seed 15-0, then upset #2 seed 14-11 in extra innings
Jun 8: Blue lost in the championship of the winner's bracket 8-6. (I hit a 3-run HR in this one.)

Jun 10: Gold team won 13-6, last game of regular season finished 3rd (8-6)

So after 11 games in 13 days (w/ very sore muscles), tonight was supposed to be the start of the Cary tournament with one game if we won & two if we lost the first one. Instead, we got "smoked" out. Really bad air quality here today (code red) due to fires in eastern NC, so Cary canceled all their games. I also play on our Office team in the EPA league (though I've missed every game so far due to other conflicts). One would think that the EPA league would be canceled on bad AQ days, but one would be wrong. So, I got to play today after all ...

June 12: EPA team lost 15-8.

Tomorrow, we need to win three straight games to win the Apex crown. Any loss & we are done. I've been playing better lately, so it's been fun. No games though Saturday, Sunday, & Monday ... maybe my soreness will abate.

Hope all readers are doing great!

Things can only slow us down if we let them ...

Check out this story. See video link on the right. Very cool.

Maybe I've Been the Problem ...

... maybe I'm the one to blame.

I've been thinking, maybe I've been partly cloudy, maybe I'm the chance of rain
Maybe I'm overcast and maybe all my luck's washed down the drain

But when I look at the stars ... when I look at the stars,
When I look at the stars, I see someone else,
When I look at the stars, I feel like myself

------------------
Hey, ho faithful readers and longtime hail contemplators ... wzzzzup?

I'll tell you what's up here ... in snippet format. The official format of the DCV.

Names: Did you see that the SSA came out w/ their list of most popular baby names for 2007? There were some odd things as noted by the SSA data collectors:

1) there are seven boys names that rhyme w/ "maiden" in the Top 102: Jayden (No. 18); Aiden (No. 27); Aidan (No. 54); Jaden (No. 76); Caden (No. 92); Kaden (No. 98); & Ayden (No.102). (Then there were another 27 in the top 1000: Braden; Cayden; Jaiden; Kaiden; Aden; Caiden; Braeden; Braydon; Jaydon; Jadon; Braiden; Zayden; Jaeden; Aydan; Bradyn; Kadin; Jadyn; Kaden; Jaydin; Braedon; Aidyn; Haiden; Jaidyn; Kadyn; Jaydan; Raiden; and Adin.)

Raiden? Really? Kris & Tim ... I nominate Quayden before it gets too trendy.

2) "Neaveh" is the #36 name for girls. It's backwards for "heaven". I just wish Harry Carey had lived long enough to see this. Strangely enough, "Lleh" is not in the top 1000. Parents are pretty optimistic I guess, at first.

APD/School: He's done w/ 5th grade. Haven't gotten his report card yet, but it looks like he got straight A's all four quarters. And he was like U2 at the Grammys in his elementary school awards ceremony (thankfully w/o Bono's "expressive" Irish tongue) ... collecting 5 awards including Top Math Student in 5th grade and Top Reader of the School. He has been blessed w/ excellent teachers every step of the way. The beautiful KMD & I are so thankful that he's had such talented and caring instructors helping him get where he's at (not really that far ... only 6th grade ... pick it up son). Blog-reading teachers ... we salute you. Truly important work, it is that you do.

APD/Baseball: His team won their first tournament game tonight & it was exciting, 6-5. The tying run was on second in the bottom of the sixth, but two great plays by their SS & P won the game for them. They were 9th of 10, so having dispatched #8, they now get to face the #1 seed on Saturday. APD hasn't gotten a hit since shortly after Abner Doubleday invented the game, but he's playing good defense, having fun, & most importantly has a great attitude about it all ... so it's all good.

Softball: Dolberry's play has been erratic at best. More bad than good, I'd say. I have 6 games over the next 7 days, so maybe I'll get into a groove. Dolberry is currently putting a hurt on the bathroom scale and the scale has somehow karmaically retaliated against my poor heel & Achilles. Anyway, I think both my teams are in 3rd w/ similar records (6-4 and 6-5). About 2-3 weeks left in the spring season.

Work: Is fine.

Other things: Can't really think of anything else. Oh, I added another blog to my list of ones that have the Dolberry seal of approval. Enjoy! Hey, toodle-oo everybody! Thanks for reading!

Golf ball sized hail in Apex

Not at our house unfortunately, though. Storm just rolled through. One of the few storms I can remember that you heard coming about 90 seconds before it came. Loud winds and presumably the hail was making some noise. As it blew by here, it hailed for about 90 seconds. The biggest I could see (i.e., landed on the porch) was just over pea-sized, but not quite marble-sized. Very cool!

I know DCV readers want to know where it ranks among hailstorms that Dolberry has experienced. I rate this as the 4th best hail storm I've ever seen.

#5 Louisville, 1983? - The one that dented our station wagon & El Cueto got the insurance company to pay us for (ahem) "repairing" it. I don't really remember the storm or I'd rank it higher.

#4 Apex, 2008 - For about 45 seconds, this storm was as good as any storm. Pea-sized, but plenty of it.

#3 Apex, 2004? - Remember it nearly covered the ground. Want to say it was in March.

#2 Arnold MO, 1989? - Was visiting Ron McCann over 4th of July and there was a huge storm. Largest hail I've ever seen. Just short of golf-ball sized.

#1 Louisville, 1984? - The one that shredded our awning. That was awesome! Remember it hit right around 5pm and I tried to watch it from our front porch but got scared when the wind ripped the door out of my hands. Retreated to the basement at that point and watched out that little window by the dryer.

(Remember, graupel is not hail. The Derby Day graupel event is #1 in graupel events. 1 of 1. If I did count it as hail, I'd probably put it as #2 or #3 on this list.)

I'm going to bed now, though. Lousy poison ivy + PI medicine has made sleep pretty much a non-entity over the last two weeks. Feel sorry for me! (that's pitiful, more so than the hail countdown)

Ha. Ha. Check out video on the right.

Run for the Roses: Episode 134 (by guest blogger APD)

The Dolwicks had a very busy day on Saturday. Peak Fest, baseball, Derby party, tournament, you name it, we had it.
We started off with some BIG Spring Cleaning, outside and in.

Lawn Mowed: Check
Walk Swept: Check
My Room Cleaned: Check
Vacuumed House: Check

Next: Peak Fest AND my Heroclix tournament for a special figure AT THE SAME TIME! Problemo? Nah! Mom (a.k.a. KMD, in All-Important-PAT's words) & I dropped Dolberry off in downtown Apex for TCC booth in PF, maneuvered around traffic, and headed toward AF&G.

Heroclix Tourney: Check
Peak Fest: Check

Unfortunately, after winning once and losing once, (tourney probably had 3 games for each player) I had to forfeit because I had more on my schedule.
Next: Baseball game vs. undefeated White Sox.
I Gobbled down Wendy's, then Mom dropped me off and went to get Dolberry at PF.
In baseball, I went 0-1 w/ BB. My team was up 5-nil going into bottom of 4th w/ about 20 min. left. We Gave Up 7! Sox clean-up was up and we were up 5-3 w/ 2 outs. I was playing CF. Mr. Cleanup hits a TOWERING fly to CF. I was far back in the OF, but ball drifted over my head even w/ a dive towards it. Triple. 3 runs score. We end up losing 7-5.

Baseball: Check

Next: The biggie of the day: The 10th annual Dolwick Kentucky Derby Party.

But before that, for once in the jam-packed schedjy, we had a one-and-a-half hour break until the jam-packedness came back.
We had a smaller party than usual this year, even though it was the 10th annual. Dolberry invited three friends from EPA/NOAA/work; two of them brought family. One came over early (early meaning about 3:35) to watch STL play our national past-time. (Um, you missed the message, but we're having a party for horse racing, not baseball. We already had our baseball part of the day. See, I have it all planned out here!) Whatever the case, D-berry decided to show extra hospitality and let him in before the gates opened. Once everyone came, we hung out and ate from about 4 to about 6, (the eating started at about 5:20, of course. I could never eat for two hours.) which was when the Call to the Posts came (precisely 6:04). And we'll have MR. fancy schmancy ESPN announcer call the race... Aw, well, he bailed on me, but at least I can show you the results.

RESULTS
Winner: #20 Big Brown
Place: #5 Eight Belles*
Show: #12 DenisofCork

* = Filly

Unfortunately, I didn't want to take the time to show you the rest of the results.
Unfortunatelier, (a word I learned from my arguable favorite Christian writer, Bill Myers) that means you'll have to look them up yourself.
Unfortunateliest, the filly, Eight Belles, fell down after finishing and had to be euthanized.
Unfortunatelierer, (that one I made up myself) which is a word that is unfortunatelier than unfortunatelier, but ununfortunatelier than unfortunateliest, I have no more unfortunatelies to say (whatever that means). Confused? How unfortunate.
After the Derby, we finished dinner, then went outside. The kids, Kevin, 13, Sarah, 6, Jake, 4, brother of Sarah, and I, 11, played while the grownups, led by D-class berry (must not have tasted very good) talked about poison ivy and other stuff. After a while, the adults went inside because the mosquitoes were bad. Mosquitoes don't like my taste. They never have, and they hopefully never will. The other kids stayed outside, too. we played with tennis balls and Cherish, our dog for a long time.
When it was time for people to leave, we handed out Mom's cookies on their way out. Finally, our day was over. After taking a shower, I went to bed.

The next day was Sunday. Mom stayed home from church because she had a bad headache. Everyone in my family was tired. Mom & Dad were very tired. I was just normal tired I met my Sunday School teacher on the way in. She said, "Alex, you look like you just got out of bed."
"Actually," I replied, "I'm probably the most awake in my whole family!"





I am honored to be the first guest blogger in this archive of indescribably great blends of art, talent, and writing, and I am amazingly overjoyed that I was hand-picked by the highly esteemed, fluent, and legendary Dolberry himself.

-Alexander Paul Dolwick











Yeah, right, what fancy schmancy overrated speech do you want me to be forced to recite next?!?!?!? Some war victory speech by a leader of the French Resistance? A revealance of a Pablo Picasso painting? James Buchanan's Inaugural Address???!!!???!!!!?!?!? GIVE ME A BREAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-very sincerely, APD

Derby Picks

4 - Eight Belles
3 - Z Fortune
2 - Colonel John
1 - Pyro