2008 NL Roto Preview: Florida Marlins

Florida Marlins: 71 wins last year and traded their primary offensive threat. (Sniff, sniff, we will miss you Miguel.) Got their new stadium approved this week, so may actually start keeping players past the age of 25 at some point. Will be changing name to Miami Marlins in 2010.

C: Mike Rabelo - 28 & hasn't really hit at any level. Came over in the Detroit trade. Pass. AVAIL (topper).

1B: Mike Jacobs - Should be hitting his prime. HRs are his only above avg category & is unlikely he'll hit more than 20-25. AVAIL.

2B: Dan Uggla - Very similar to Jacobs. Stats should be pretty predictable. Will hurt you in AVG/OBP, but give you ~ 25 HRs. GOODF keep.

SS: Hanley Ramirez - 2007 Roto MVP. (.332/.390/29/88/51) Wow! Only 25, but expect stats to regress slightly just 'cause they can't get much better. HAZE keep.

3B: Jose Castillo, Dallas McPherson, Jorge Cantu - Likely to be decided during spring training. Not much here. Castillo probably has the edge and had a decent winter league, but he's been a big zero through 4 MLB years. McPherson's got power but K's a ton & missed all last year. Cantu is ok, but his "D" at 3B is suspect. Pass on all 3. AVAIL (Castillo - JUST keeper?).

LF: Josh Willingham - Reasonable roto OF. RBI's dampened by rest of Marlins. AVAIL.

CF: Cameron Maybin, Cody Ross - Maybin is one of the best prospects in the game. A true 5-category stud. But he's only 20 and he did struggle in 50 MLB ABs last year. By 23, he will probably be an all-star, but how much you want to pay for him now is unclear. Cody Ross had a great two months last year, but they look out of place w/ the rest of his career. AVAIL (Ross - BSOX keeper?).

RF: Jeremy Hermida - Still only 24. Seemed to figure it out after the all-star break last year (.230 pre-, .340 -post). Look for breakout year here. BSOX keeper.

SP1: Scott Olsen - Was awful last year on all counts. He especially seemed to give up after the all-star break. Unclear how much of the deterioration was his attitude (which appears to be even worse than his stats). Either way, not much point drafting him or any other Marlin starter. AVAIL.

SP2: Sergio Mitre - Gets by on guile. Shortest Marlin starter at 6'3". (The Marlins probably would have the best basketball team rotation.) Not much to recommend here. AVAIL.

SP3: Andrew Miller - Was pitching for Tar Heels just two years ago. Big time prospect who struggled in 60 IP in Detroit last year. The Marlins can let him learn the ropes for a few years & hope he's ready by 2010 when they're ready to contend. AVAIL.

SP4: Mark Hendrickson - T.J. Simers (funny columnist from L.A. Times) calls him "The Big Stiff" which pretty much describes his 6-year MLB career (career ERA > 5.00) AVAIL.

SP5: Rick VandenHurk, Ricky Nolasco - VandenHurk K's about a guy an inning, but is hit hard otherwise. Only 22 and from the Netherlands, so still could develop. Probably should be coverted to a reliever, though. Nolasco doesn't look draftable. AVAIL (RVH BARF keep?).

CLS: Kevin Gregg - Solid closer. Nice K-rate. Highest paid Marlin (2.5 mil) BSOX keep.

Alt CLS: Justin Miller: Miller came back from Japan w/ a new propensity for K's. His K rate last year was equal to Billy Wagner & Derrick Turnbow. Pitched well for O'Jimmies at end of year. K:BB is around 3. Matt Lindstrom also had a decent year for a 'pen that was surprisingly good (Gardner, Tankersley, etc.). Hard to say which one would step up if Gregg went down or was traded.

Bench: Alfredo Amezaga, Jorge Piedra - Amezaga is cheap speed at best. Piedra probably will only get 150 ABs, mostly as a PH, but they should be decent ABs.

Prospects: Chris Volstad - SP, another tall Marlin SP (6'7"), probably arriving in late 2008. Great control for a young pitcher, but didn't K that many last year and was hittable.

Injured: Anibel Sanchez - SP, - Already had a setback w/ his return from shoulder surgery. Not expected to return until July and maybe later than that.

Dolberry's Musings on the Marlins: APD once got to run out to right field w/ Marlins RF Jeremy Hermida when he played for the Carolina Mudcats (Marlins AA club). That was one of Dolberry's better efforts as a youth leader getting that set up. Carolina Mudcats games are fun to attend. In my mind, they are way better than Durham Bulls games.

To me, D-Bulls games diminish the baseball w/ all the between-inning entertainment and other distractions. I realize how snobbish this sounds by the way. But it just seems especially incongruent at the DBAP. You're in this increasingly cool, revitalized Durham environment, but inside the stadium has a very Cary/Apex feel. I'm all for family-friendly ... it just seems forced somehow w/ the Bulls. Plus, I hate/loath/despise Y-M-C-A. It's probably just me, because their attendance is solid every year.

In contrast, the Mudcats play out in the middle of nowhere (Zebulon NC, actually) & there's generally no more than 3K in attendance, but you can hear the crack of the bat & you can sit in the first row & some people can yell out at the players (We Love You Teddy Bear!) loud enough to irritate everyone in a 20-mile radius. Despite the last item, I just like Mudcat games better.

What it means for the O'Jimmies: Not much given that Ramirez, Gregg, and Hermida likely won't be available. Any team leaving the draft counting on more than 2 Marlins is probably in trouble. Maybin and Miller are attractive as prospects, esp. Maybin. Justin Miller is probably worth a buck as an O'Jimmy keeper, but presumably you could get him for a buck again in the draft, so what's the point?

2008 NL roto preview: Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves: Finished 3rd last year. 5 games back of the Phillies. Have a good young core of position players entering their prime. Many question marks in the starting rotation. Should contend in the NL East.

C: Brian McCann - Only 24. Stats took a tumble last year, but still was a top 3 catcher in the NL. Only 24. Should improve. AVAIL (topper).

1B: Mark Texiera - Dependable middle-of-the-order run producer. Hit an otherwordly .509 w/ runners in scoring position last year. AVAIL.

2B: Kelly Johnson - Former O'Jimmy who blossomed last year. Wore down a little in Sept. which depressed his final stats. BARF keep.

SS: Yunel Escobar - Exceptional rookie season. Improved as year went along. Not much pop now, but could come. EMPIRE keep.

3B: Chipper Jones - Still one of the best players in baseball when healthy. At 36, durability not likely to improve, but 350-400 exceptional AB are guaranteed. JUST keeper.

LF: Matt Diaz - Some uncertainty here. May platoon Diaz w/ Brandon Jones or Josh Anderson. Diaz pounds LHP, mediocre vs RHP. JUST keep?

CF: Mark Kotsay - Coming off back surgery. Reportedly healthy. 32 years old. Last good fantasy season was 2004. Don't see much here. AVAIL.

RF: Jeff Francouer - Only 24. Good power, OBP liability. Expect his HRs to increase and should have RBI opps aplenty. AVAIL (topper).

SP1: Tim Hudson - 3rd season in ATL was best by far. Good bet to win 15 games w/ above average ERA/WHIP. GOODF keep?

SP2: John Smoltz - Future Hall-of-Famer, Lifetime WHIP ~ 1.15. Still K's 6-7 per game. How long can he keep it up? O'JIMMIES keep.

SP3: Tom Glavine - Watched him alot last year as an O'Jimmy. If he can't get batters to chase offspeed/away, he has nothing else. May get wins but will hurt your WHIP/ERA. AVAIL.

SP4: Mike Hampton - Missed 2.5 seasons w/ elbow problems. Then hurt his hammy during 1st inning of winter ball. Reportedly healthy now. Never a big K guy & always walks too many. Intriguing though for $1 on this team. O'JIMMIES keep?

SP5: Jo-Jo Reyes, Chuck James, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Bennett - The Braves think all 4 of these guys are MLB pitchers. James may not be ready on Opening Day. Jurrjens is the big time prospect but needs development (only 21). Bennett will probably end up in the pen. Reyes then should get a shot. Didn't impress last year in limited duty, but minor league success and Bobby Cox are in his corner. Reyes & James are possible HAZE keepers.

CLS: Rafael Soriano - VERY solid closer. BSOX keep.

Alt CLS: Peter Moylan, Mike Gonzalez: Gonzalez is a stud when healthy. Looking good in ST but not expected back until June. Moylan's a decent set up guy.

Bench: Brandon Jones - 24 year old. Athletic w/ power/speed. Solid stats in AA/AAA. Improving. Longshot to be a breakout fantasy pick in 2008.

Bench: Josh Anderson - Cheap speed. 40 SB in AAA. Not much else.

Prospects: Jordan Schaefer - CF, probably in 2009. 20/20 potential. Profiles similar to Kotsay, IMO.

Dolberry's Musings on the Braves: I've always liked Chipper Jones. He was one of the first players ever drafted by the short-lived Candolwick Clarks (Stephen & my roto team in Chicago). As many of you know, APD was called Lil' Chipper when he was in his fetal stage. His career has followed the typical 5-stage superstar arc:

1) highly hyped as a young player "the next Ernie Banks" (92-94),
2) highly praised in first few years (95-98),
3) period of "being taken down a few notches" due to just-noticed defiencies (e.g., infidelity, attitude) in his prime years (99-03),
4) a period of generally unnoticed excellence (04-07) ... since June 2006 Chipper leads the MLB w/ a .350 avg and a 653 slugging percentage which is amazing.
5) this year or next, he will be entering into the "glorified elder statesman" stage (aka "the Favreal stage"). This is usually marked by a decline in statistical performance, but an odd increase in favorable attention.

What it means for the O'Jimmies: The Braves should easily win 80 games, which makes players in their lineup attractive for the team-based stats (wins, saves, RBI) as well as whatever they might do individually. McCann will likely be overpriced due to position scarcity. Teixeira is a reasonable power pick. Francouer is less reasonable. I'd pass on Kotsay, Glavine, and whoever gets the 5th starter job. Just have to hope Smoltzie stays a productive O'Jimmy yet again and that Hampton stays healthy and can fill the $1 SP who doesn't hurt you too bad slot (see Moyer, Jamie). Gonzalez would be a good reserve pick.

What I did on my blogging vacation

Yo yo bloggafficianados, what is happening?!?

(awkward silence)

Right, this isn't an interactive medium. A little rusty here.

It seems we all have only a finite amount of energy to spend in a day. We make choices as to how we expend that energy. Obviously, Dolberry hasn't been investing his energy on the DCV (or any other blog, for that matter). Most of my energy seems to be going to work lately, which seems strange to say. Anyway, almost all of my projects are going well (i.e., almost finished), so hopefully that devotion will be on the wane shortly.

Also, I've been trying to get in shape. Have been exercising a lot and eating less, but I haven't dropped much weight. Think there's some sort of muscle-to-fat thing going on ... yeah, let's go w/ that. I did do an unintentional daylong triathlon on President's Day, running 3 miles at 9p on Sunday night, swimming 1 mile at 9a Monday, & biking 15 miles at 1p Monday. Anyway, this exercising thing seems to take more out of me than it used to take (and certainly more than the sitting I'd grown too accustomed to doing).

I've been following the election somewhat closely. Either way it turns out, I think we'll have a really good President. There are multiple good choices. I was thinking about making the DCV a purely political blog. Here's the sort of priceless witticisms you would get on a political DCV.

• The Democrats say they want to bring the troops home next year, but say that McCain is ok w/ them staying for 100 years. Now Dolberry is not a military strategist by any means, but I don't think those troops are going to be particularly effective when they're 125. I side w/ the Dems on this issue. Once you hit retirement age, you should be able to come home.

• I side w/ the Reps on this one, though. If I understand it, the surge isn't working because the goal of it was to buy the fledgling Iraqi legislature time to take the necessary steps to form an effective working government. Hillary said they've taken small steps, but they've haven't shown enough progress to warrant the U.S. staying there. Dolberry is just thankful that there's no stabilizing third-party basing their support to our country based on the productiveness of our representatives in D.C. (Roger Clemens hearings notwithstanding).

Ahh ... I'll leave the political arena to people better suited for it ... like Rush Limbaugh or the New York Times. There's two institutions that know better and care more about America than Dolberry (or anyone else, for that matter).

What else ... of course it's the time of year where I start to work (& it is work) on fantasy baseball preparation. I'm in a Diamond Mind league where the draft has started and we're only a few weeks from El Cueto's and Dolberry's O'Jimmies draft. So, over the next few weeks I'll be blogging on the upcoming 2008 NL season ... that way I'll be blogging and doing the necessary legwork to be ready for Rotisserie. In Michael Scott, terms that is a win-win-win. So, Atlanta Braves you are up tomorrow.

Anyway, I hope all you guys are doing GRR ... GRR ... GRRRR ... ate.

Great article

Sorry I haven't been posting much lately. All is well w/ the Dolberrys.

Here's a REALLY cool article on baseball, if you're into such things. By far, the best piece of writing I've ever seen on espn.com and it has nothing to do w/ Brian McNamee, Andy Pettitte, or Roger Clemens' nanny.

Have a great week!

Fun Weekend

Friday: Off from work. Did my first double workout of the year (ran 2 miles, swam 1000 yds). Picked APD up from school and went here and then to the U2 3D movie. Dolberry's review: Excellent. Awesome music. Cool effects.

Saturday: Went out to Asheboro for a combined IM/APD b-day party. Got to play Guitar Hero for the first time. I pretty much rock at it, esp. "Cherub Rock" and "I Ran". IM came back to our house for a sleepover & brought his Playstation 2 with him which was fun.

Sunday: Biked home from church ... always fun. Then, we had our own mini-Super Bowl party w/ the orange dip and chips, plus chicken wings. Mmmmm, very good. The game was worth watching, which was nice.

Hope everyone else's was equally as nice.

30 days 'til Spring Training.

BREAKING BLOG NEWS: Bus Accident in Apex

The bus I was riding this morning was involved in an accident. A Chevy S10 pulled out in front of the bus & we hit it at 35-40 mph. Amazingly, despite all the glass being blown out of the pickup & the whole driver's side being crumpled in, the truck driver walked away w/ only an apparent concussion. I was fine. Banged my knee on the seat in front of me, but hardly even sore.

Update: (not really all that much to this story)

I'd just gotten on the bus, gotten seated, & was opening up the paper when I could feel the bus slamming on the brakes. I looked up ... there was a car in front of us ... and there was no way we were going to miss it. We hit the truck right in the driver's side door. It blew his back window out, blew out at least one of his tires, & brought us to a quick stop as well. I slid up my seat whacking my right knee on the plastic seat in front of me. No real big deal for the bus. (I was the only one on it beside the driver.)

Apparently the driver thought the bus was going to make a right turn and went ahead and turned in front of us. He said the bus had his turn signal on. Actually, I guess, the bus had its flashers on, still from crossing train tracks just before picking me up.

I got "interviewed" by the same police officer from the deer incident (she didn't recognize me), but I didn't really see anything. All total, 1 fire truck, 1 EMS truck, 1 Fire/Rescue, and 1 police car responded. Every one was very nice & professional. The bus driver did a good job too, though he was clearly shaken up.

They said the truck driver probably had a concussion. He was trying to call his wife, but couldn't remember her number. I really don't know how he wasn't more badly hurt. God was watching out for him no doubt.

Live Blog: Snow Day!

In the history of the DCV, there have only been two occasions momentous enough to warrant the "Live Blog" treatment. One of these ("My Night at O'Hare") wasn't even a truly live blog since I didn't have internet connection through a lot of it ... it was more of a tape-delay. The other was the Louisville - West Virginia football game of 2006. (This was back when both Louisville and WVU had football programs.) It was a BIG game as you may recall and the DCV "Live Blog" treatment brought enough luck to the Cards to pull them through.

It is, in part, this desire for a little additional input from Lady Fortune that the live blogging procedures have been cranked up here at the DCV, because we want to see some snow and the atmosphere may not have it in it w/o some additional blog-generated providence.

9:39a: The Dolberry Winter Weather Prediction Centre is lowering its original snow prediction of 4.7" back down to 4.2". Uncertainty is high with this event and thus we are suspending our usual procedure of predicting snow to 3 decimal places w/in 24 hours of the event. We apologize for any inconvenience.

9:42a: Last fall, Relient K came out w/ a Christmas album and while most of the songs had been previously released, it did come with a shiny new, typically-clever RK title ... Let It Snow Baby, Let It Rein Deer. Well, at present in Apex, it is 37.0 F and raining. Normally, if it's 37 in Raleigh, you're not anywhere close to snow, but cold air is on its way. Needs to hurry before the precip leaves. It has dropped 0.6 degrees in the last 30 minutes. Let it SNOW, baby!

9:59a: Part of the reason I want it to snow so badly is that we bought a sled yesterday. According to the cashier, half the town of Cary bought sleds yesterday. (I think we'll have to view that as an unofficial tally.) Anyway, me and the beautiful KMD were out shopping for sleds. We tried Dick's first and all they had were lousy snow intertubes and they were like 20 bucks. "Give me a break!" stormed Dolberry out of the store w/ the beautiful KMD in tow. Then, the beautiful KMD (shortened to bKMD for the rest of the "Live Blog") said sometimes Linens and Things sells sleds. Dolberry smelled a rat here. "I'm not going to Linens and Things!" stormed Dolberry. But since we were right by a Sled, Bath, and Beyond we went into that one. Whoa! What a zoo. A new shipment of sleds had just come in and there was a frenzy of maybe 3-4 shoppers looking over the limited inventory. They had some plastic orange contraption that looked like it would maybe be strong enough to carry MoJo down a slope that was $9.99. bKMD suggested that one would be fine, but the Sled, Bath, and Beyond saleslady asked Dolberry how old the child using the sled would be. "Ten." I lied. ('Cause you know it's a 41 year old heading down the hill first ... for testing purposes ya know.) With the smooth skill of a car salesman she steered the gullible Dolberry over to the plastic discs that were running for $14.99. bKMD thought Dolberry was being taken for a snow ride and said so when the saleslady had walked away. Meanwhile, the Lexus of sleds had caught Dolberry's eye. A shiny new, half-sled / half boogie board device. Dolberry was entranced ... and sought the saleslady out. "How much is this one?" he timidly inquired. "29.99". Oh my. We then spent more time debating the purchase of this sled than we did purchasing our car. In the end, w/ a severe case of buyer's remorse setting in, we went with the fancy model, but when the cashier rang it up, she said that'll be $16. SWEET! So, I need it to snow.

10:08: Update from the bKMD, in this case the "b" stands for "brave" who has ventured out into the storm and reports it is still raining, but that some of the raindrops look "flaky" when they hit the windshield.

10:14: Had to take a break from "Snow Day: Live Blog" to buy our Spring Training Reds tix. We're down the first base line. 4th row for the Yankees game on Thursday. 6th row for the Pirates game on Friday. We're seeing the Marlins @ Red Sox in Fort Myers on Saturday. And then we're eating cheesesteaks on Sunday (while the Phils play the Blue Jays). Buying Reds tix was about 50x easier than buying Red Sox tickets. When I observed this to bKMD, she said "That's a good thing about not winning the World Series."

10:28: The Admiral (NOAA) does a whole bunch of model simulations (21 to be exact) every 6 hours as part of an exercise he calls the short-range ensemble forecast. Then he takes the average of all those runs and bases a snowfall estimate based on that. Here's a plot of what the Admiral expects in the three hour period between 1-4p.


10:29: So that would be a solid 1.25" of snow in that three-hour period. Plus, they have us getting snow in other periods as well, for a total of about 2". Or just enough to sled on.

10:32: The Admiral then taunts snow lovers everywhere by cherry-picking the highest of the 21 ensemble members and plotting that one. Here it is, the most optimistic of the 21 is still prediction a whole bunch of snow. Here it is.


10:35: So that'd be a good 3" inches in a 3-hour period this afternoon, w/ other 3-hour periods having snow as well tallying up to about 7". So the mean is 2", the max is 7", and the min is presumably the usual bupkis (zero).

10:40: Watching the Weather Channel. They are on full alert for the snow in Atlanta. Snow far they've shown a closeup of Jim Cantore's sleeve which had a few sleet particles on it. Then they showed a sky cam of Atlanta where a few flakes were falling. The funny Bill Kennely said, "Hey, I see one! Wait there's two! (pause) Three!"

10:43: As seen in the comments section, but I'll put it up here as well, BK Weather has also lowered there forecast accumulation, but are still calling for a solid 4".

10:44: Temperature update: It is now 38.1 in Apex. That is most disappointing. Realistically, it looks like the switchover will be between 12p and 2p.

10:51: Here's what the radar looks like now. There will be a brief gap in the precip here between 11a -1p. Then we have to hope the main bulk of precip doesn't slide too far to the SE.


10:52: Snowing pretty good in Atlanta now.

11:03: The new RDU forecast discussion is out! It's very long. And very thorough. I think they may have brought the Admiral into write this one. Bottom line is that, they're growing increasingly skeptical about much snow in the western part of the forecast area. They're thinking there will be a sweet spot of higher snow (2"-3", they imply) from eastern Wake Co up to Louisburg and Roanoke Rapids.

11:14: The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model ... the one that the Admiral runs most often (every hour! don't know when the guy sleeps) and only runs out to 12 hours ... seems to be on board for some snow. Two inches between 2p and 8p.


11:28: Has officially stopped raining in Apex. Gap shouldn't last too long according to radar trends. More rain around 12:15p?

11:59: It's not raining and the temperature's warming (38.7F).

12:01: I'm glad the BK forecasters are still onboard here. Atlanta has picked up a quick quarter inch, and that precip mass is still coming this way. Tentative sledding time is projected to be 5:15pm. We're going to the Apex Comm Park if the BK forecasters are interested.

12:07: Where IS it snowing at present? Alabama (Birmingham, Aniston, Montgomery) and Georgia (Atlanta, Marietta, Gainesville), and Andrews North Carolina. I don't think any of these places are w/in a 6 hour drive of here.

12:13: Where IS the cold air? The wind direction has changed in Winston-Salem from E to N over the past two hours and the dew point has dropped 10 degrees. When the next batch of precip hits this air, there will be more evaporative cooling and we should see temps drop to 32-33 very quickly. The front (as evidenced by windshift and dew point drop) is through Greensboro where the dewpoint is 20 and approaching Raleigh, where the dew point is still 34.

12:16: Where IS the precipitation? It's coming back. Radar trends would say by 12:35 we should be back into the rain and then it should precipitate for sometime ... 'til about 8p. Need that front to hurry up!

12:18: The bKMD wanted me to mention she whupped me in a Sudoku match in the "Snow Day: Live Blog" lag between 11:28 and 11:59. Duly noted.

12:20: Good news! The dew point is dropping quickly at Chapel Hill ... down to 25. Sharp dew point gradient between there and the 34 at RDU. Usually once the cold dry air gets over the Appalachians it rolls down the Piedmont pretty quickly.

12:32: First sign of snow? Statesville NC is reporting "unknown precipitation". It's an automated monitor, so it's probably some rain/snow mix. Temp is still 41 there, so it's not much snow.

12:50: DCV Programming Update: Dolberry has to run IM and APD up to their Heroclix tournament at 1pm. I will provide an eyewitness account of the weather when I return. After that we have a 1:45 lunch appt. So updates may be sporadic over the next few hours. Hopefully the loyal DCV readers will manage.

12:53: Light drizzle in East Apex. 39.2 degrees.

1:11: Update. Big crowd @ Heroclix tournament. Maybe 8-10 kids. Oh, wrong update. Drizzle and dropping temps ... down to 38.7F.

1:16: Winds have shifted to N at RDU and dew point is starting to drop.

1:40: The best thing we have going for us is the radar. Still a lot of precip to our SW heading NE. I still think we should see snow before 3p.

1:43: FLAKES! ACTUAL SNOW FLAKES IN EAST APEX. Mixed in w/ rain. Will be late for 1:45 mtg. Report back later.

3:21: It is snowing in east Apex, but this snow is snow only in the strictest sense of the word. It is snow that has adhered to the letter of the law, but not to the spirit of the law. One failing of this snow, in particular, is its reluctance to accumulate on the ground. Instead it is melting immediately, which is not good for sledding purposes. It's been snowing for about 1 hour in East Apex and our accumulation is up to 0.000" so far. I'm a little underwhelmed to this point.

3:54: Snow now sticking in East Apex as well. Approximate accumulation 0.05" and still coming down.

4:05: Picture of us in snow.


4:29: Still snowing. Temps are down to 32.2F. All snow to this point should be accumulating, on the grass anyway. Sledding at 5:30 looks less and less likely. Maybe 7p sledding? Dolberry is down 14-3 at halftime in our snow football. Footing is nonexistent.

4:57: Still snowing lightly. Radar trends show increasing precip to our west. Still expect a good 1-1.5" to come down between 5:15 and 7:30p. Temp is down to 31.6 in east Apex.


5:28p: Still snowing. Maybe up to 0.2" of snow in east Apex.

6:36: Filing under lesson learned ... 0.5" of snow is not really enough to go sledding. We managed about 5 runs down the hill at the softball fields. At $16 for the sled, that works out to $3.20 per ride ... or about State Fair prices. The beautiful KMD said it was worth $16 to see my ride which ended up w/ me caterpaulting sideways into the big mud puddle at the bottom of the hill. I don't know why she's like that sometimes. Anyway, we got to slide around some and the anticipation is most of the fun part anyway.

More BIG Apex News

So, I'm walking to the bus stop last Friday (this Friday I am off) and as I approach the Food Lion I notice an Apex Police car has traffic stopped on Laura Duncan. In the past they've set up roadblocks there to check for driver's licenses, but that seems strange at 7:10am at the peak of high school traffic. Anyway, a school bus is waved through the blockade & then pulls over & opens its door to talk to me. I'm on the sidewalk about 50 yards from where the police are. The bus driver tells me, "You may want to stay there. They've got something going on w/ a deer up ahead."

I'm still a little groggy & this statement is far enough out of the normal realm that all I can manage is a polite "OK. Thanks." and keep walking figuring I'm not afraid of a deer. I take about 5 more steps and the policewoman sees me and says very forcefully, "Sir! BACK UP!".

I'm able to process that and back up the 5 steps I just took.

Then I see the other police officer get out of the patrol car and walk over to the grassy area ahead of me and just off the sidewalk. For the first time, I notice the deer sorting of aimlessly wandering around w/ a clearly injured front leg. The police officer tentatively approached the deer and tried to get him to shoo, even whapping the deer on his hindquarters once. The deer did not obey, presumably unable to comply due to injury.

The officer then gets out his gun. Meanwhile the other officer notices that a crowd is gathering in the Food Lion parking lot to watch. One guy is way out in front of the rest. She tells him, as forcefully as she told me, to move back. He doesn't. After 3 orders that are not obeyed, she goes over there and gets in his face, at which point he does move back.

The male officer points his gun at the deer & fires. The deer does nothing.

He fires again and again and again and then one more time. The deer is clearly agitated but can't go more then 2 or 3 steps in any direction. I'm talking to the bus driver who's left her bus by now (no kids inside, between runs apparently) and she says "How bad a shot is this guy?"

I guess he must have been shooting blanks, cause I don't think they'd fire in a non-emergency w/ that many people around.

He returns to the squad car & then comes back. By this time the deer has fallen down & I was just wishing they would put it out of his/her misery (presumably hit by a car). The officer shoots one more time and about 5 seconds later they wave me and the cars through.

I had to run to catch my bus. The policewoman thanked me for waiting. And I steadfastly did not look to the left when I passed the dead dear.

---------------------------

Other than that ... all is well. Work is extremely busy. Look for two projects I've been involved in to hit the news over the next 6 weeks. Good environmental progress is forthcoming. APD made the Principal's List again which is cool. It's supposed to snow here tomorrow. The Dolberry Centre for Winter Weather Prediction is officially calling for 4.2 inches. This is on the heels of our 0.2" yesterday. If it does snow 4", that'll be our biggest snow in at least 3 years. Hope all readers are going Grrrreeeaaattttt.

The less-than-glorious Billikens

Lost 49-20 tonight to a team in the 200s in the RPI. According to ESPN it's the lowest score in the shot-clock era. Awesome!!!! Got to watch most of it over the internet. They earned that record. Not a lot of turnovers, but a splendid assessment of back rim clankers and airballs.

Really though, except for the 1st 8 minutes when they only got 1 point ... and those middle 18 minutes where they only got 1 point .... they did exceed a point a minute in the other 14 minutes.

Oh when the saints go marching in ... oh the heck w/ it.

Book review and a movie review

First, APD made Principal's List again in the 2nd quarter. Yay for him.

Movie Review: Charlie Wilson's War. I liked it.

Book Review: Water for Elephants. I liked it also. Thanks Mom!

Was this just an excuse to post to get my ugly mug a little lower down on the page. Yes.

Have a great Thursday everyone!

Happy New Year from the Dolberry Crew

Record highs in Raleigh ... ain't no big deal anymore

In an effort to stave off boredom the other day, I looked at some of the climatological data on the RDU NWS site. It had seemed to me that we had record highs quite often in 2007. The data bore that out.

There were 33 days w/ record highs in 2007. This is considering a record period from 1944 through 2007. So in that 64 year period, all things being equal, one would expect to get (366/64, or 5.7)record highs every year. One oddity though, days in which the record high is a tie (temps are measured to nearest integer) are attributed to the most recent year. So, one would expect the more recent years to have more record highs due to this artifact. I've looked at the 2007 records at RDU and most of them are not ties, but actual records. As you can see the 33 record highs for the year is not only 27 more than usual, but 14 more than we've ever seen before. On average, every 11th day was a record high in Raleigh. Wow.

I've also looked at the record lows at RDU. Same as above ... it's a 64 year record and ties go to the most recent year. Over the last 6 years, in a period in which we should have gotten about 34-35 record lows, we've gotten only 6 (just one in 2007, a chilly 27 deg F on 4/8). Record lows have been very uncommon in this area over the last 6 years. Most record lows at RDU are from the time period 1960-1985. It's supposed to get quite cold here over the next few days, but the forecasts are that we won't get w/in 5 deg F of any records.

So, the odds this year of getting a record high on any given day were 1 in ~11; the odds of getting a record low were 1 in 366.

Why is this happening. Some potential reasons:

1) It's possible that the monitor itself changed or was moved at some time over this 64 year period, perhaps to some place warmer. I don't think that happened, but cannot say for sure.

2) Certainly, the landuse patterns around the airport have changed dramatically over the last 20-30 years. Rapid development in the Triangle has appreciably reduced the amount of forested area in this part of Central NC. Most of this former forest has been replaced by urban devices like asphalt or concrete. This may be leading to a bigger heat island effect around the RDU site (& area as a whole).

3) Maybe it's a symptomatic of global warming. According to NCDC, 2007 was on pace (thru November) of being the 8th warmest year (of the last 100 or so) in the U.S. and the 5th warmest (since 1880) globally.

Oh well, it's a complicated issue and the record highs in Raleigh may not mean anything, other than it was an abnormally warm year here. Interestingly, ozone air pollution was quite low in Raleigh this year. Ozone forms on high temperature days, but it appears as if the control programs that EPA, States, industry, and the population at large have agreed to and implemented have had their intended effect. I suspect that if the same cooperation could be applied to the global climate change subject, we would see the same results.

Hope everyone has a great 2008.

Blog de Noel

Merry Christmas everybody! Hope yours was a wonderful one. Ours was great down here.

We put the tree up on Saturday. Cherish was a little concerned.




This is APD & Dolberry goofing around on Christmas Eve. Oddly, the beautiful KMD did not open an Xmas Eve present, but APD & I did.





The requisite shot of waiting on the stairs to open the gifts on Christmas morning.






APD opening gifts. He got a lot of cool stuff. Heroclix, an architecture kit, a Bears hat, some books, a Chisox lunchbox, tix to Friday's Canes game, a new Bible, a Canes shirt, a Silver Surfer poster, & other stuff I'm forgetting.


The beautiful KMD got a stuffed puppy (Jingle Bells) that Cherish had opened a few days earlier. Cherish thinks all stuffed animals are hers. (She did get a new hare for Christmas.)




This is APD building his mom & dad a house to retire in. I suspect it'll come faster than I wish. Maybe that thought will make tomorrow back at work more tolerable. Merry Christmas everyone!

A Hollywood Weekend in the Triangle

Our weekend was spent rubbing shoulders w/ the famous people of the Triangle. On Friday, the beautiful KMD went to Alex's Christmas Program ( ... the one year Dolberry doesn't go ....) and got to sit two rows behind the starting CF for the Cincinnati Reds, Josh Hamilton. KMD reports that he's the sort of dad who stands up & waves to his little one when she's on stage. Normally, Dolberry finds this irritating, but knowing Hamilton's back story, I find it kinda cool.

Then on Saturday, we went to a Christmas cantada w/ one of our friends from church. Her son was singing in the choir at another church in Durham. We get there and the opening soloist is surprisingly enough former Durham District Attorney, Mike Nifong. Our friend said, "I thought he was in jail." Dolberry thought he sang pretty good, but my hearing is still impaired, so don't take my word for it.

Anyway, we're thinking about opening up one of those "Star Tours" for those that want to visit the Raleigh-Durham area and see all the famous people here. Obviously, Dolberry is the primo attraction. I'm thinking of putting shag carpet up on our living room ceiling.

Hope all are doing well.

Random sports and weather thoughts

Hope all are doing well.


Pat Forde on the Disingenuous Drifter (Bobby P) ... one of the most excoriating articles I've read in a long time.

The Mitchell Report comes out tomorrow. Early leaks (less than w/ most reports) indicate over 80 names are listed as having used steroids/HGH. I may be wearing rose-colored glasses, but I doubt more than 1-2 Reds are on the list. I figure Freel/Farney has probably ingested almost every substance known to man ... but other than that no Reds seem to fit the mold (at least the mold in my mind ... yes I have a moldy mind).


It looks like it's going to snow in Louisville (& Evansville) this weekend, once you get past your potentially flooding rains of tonight/tomorrow. Looks like Louisville will be right on the rain/snow line. Here's where the NWS thinks the heaviest snow will be laid down.

Ear Infection: A Review

Hey all,

I have an ear infection. I don't recommend it. One star on a scale of 1-5.

If you want to talk to me, talk loud. The doctor said I'd have 70% of my hearing back w/in a month. 90% in 3 mos. Other than not feeling good (first a cold, then the EI) since T-giving, all is fine. KMD is sick as well, but she doesn't complain near as much as I do about it. APD has been unscathed.

It was 80 degrees today here ... which was a record. APD & I tested out our new baseball bags and the curve balls. Both were very fun. Good times to be back on a field again. On the bright side, I should be able to hear by the time softball starts again. I give today's weather 5 stars. We're supposed to have record highs the next 3 days as well. Yay for that.

The Adventures of HeroClix: Episode 2

Starring Rhino, U.S. Agent, Raza, Badoon Guard, Sudsy, and special guest Jason Giambi ...

The Adventures of HeroClix: Episode 1

Enjoy.

Best Louisville game of the year

That's What I'm Talking About!!!!

One quarter of passionate football (all season) is better than none.

Quick Cam installed

Our review of the X-giving celebration will be forthcoming, but a quick heads-up to say we've got out Quick Cam installed. Here are some pictures to prove it. (Also, the link to the left.)

Bonds and the Ol' Lefthander

Maybe one of the biggest offseason baseball news days EVER yesterday. Scott Boras & A-Rod realized they were playing w/ house money but losing and cut the best deal still on the table. They took a shot at getting someone to overpay like the Rangers did last time & it didn't happen. Presumably, he'll be fine w/ his $275 million payout over the next 10 years, though the contract probably allows another opt-out in 2013 or so. Jake Peavy's unanimous selection as NL Cy Young got very little attention which is a shame. He's only 26 & led the league in wins, ERA, and K's. Impressive.

The first & fourth stories mean the most to Dolberry. (You can decide which is 1st and which is 4th.) Bonds was indicted for perjury and obstruction of justice ... and Joe Nuxhall died at 79. Bonds made a choice somewhere along the way that the ends justified the means, the winner gets the spoils, & apparently that the net measure of a man's worth can be measured in OBP, RBI, and the almighty home run. Nuxhall appears to have made another choice ... that you can maximize the talents you've been blessed with and yet still live a life that is about more than just one person.

"He’s one of the greatest human beings I’ve ever met,” former Reds first baseman Sean Casey said in 2004. “He’s humble. He always thinks of others first. I know he was a great pitcher and he’s done a lot of other things. But I think everything else is second to him being a great human being."

“From the first day I walked on the field at spring training in Tampa, Joe was always there to help with whatever,” Hall of Fame catcher Johnny Bench said in 2004. “He just oozed Reds baseball.”

"This is a sad day for everyone in the Reds organization. I 'm in shock. I've known Joe my entire life. He did so many great things for so many people. You never heard anyone ever say a bad word about him. We're all going to miss him." - Ken Griffey Jr.

At once, I was at ease. That's what Joe did, be it to a young reporter, a young player or a fan off the street. In his mind, Joe was no better than you are. Me -- in my mind, I would consider myself a success if I were a quarter of the man Joe Nuxhall was. - C. Trent Rosecrans (Cincy Post beat writer)

Can you see any of the above statements ever being said about Barry Bonds? When Bonds gets to his last breaths ... don't you think he'd trade his legacy for Nuxhall's in a heartbeat? This is something I need to be constantly reminded about ... life is not about the stats (dollars earned, size of your TV, amount of turkey eaten) ... it's about what's between the lines of your baseball card.

I'll really miss listening to him.

Why I'm posting more lately ...

One reason ... more T-giving food for me.

I noticed last year during the holidays that many of my conversations w/ assorted family members were shortened because of the advance notice on all-things-Dolberry provided by the blog. As a result, I was able to eat about 15% more than usual because of the less time wasted w/ unfilling small talk. So, w/ T-giving coming up (T minus 10 days), here's some additional Dolberry-related stuff. I will not be repeating these next week. Thank you for your consideration.

Dolberry has been very busy & has not had a chance to follow college football at all this year. I will not be prepared to talk at all about this next week, so there's no sense even bringing individual teams or games up.

I do expect to be able to follow college basketball though. That was really funny that UK lost to Gardiner-Webb. I will gladly entertain any conversations about how a team that lost to UNC by 53 last year could stomp UK at home. That is, as long as we're in line for more food. Not when I'm eating, please.

Work is fine. If you're a Republican, rest assured EPA is doing all that we can to ensure that all those aging hippies and wannabe Socialists don't ruin the American economy through some sort of sensible global climate change action. If you're a Democrat, rest assured EPA is doing all that we can to combat global warming by creating numerous and conflicting groups, divisions, and offices to design and promote sensible climate change action.

Softball is over. We won the championship. Dolberry will talk about this as long as you want. In fact, I'll go ahead and bring our scorebook. We can go at-bat by at-bat through our 15 game regular season and three-game tournament sweep. We can do this while the underlings are doing the dishes.

APD is fine. As far as I know, he will be available for questions. All he eats is bread anyway and he talks w/ his mouth full, so it's not really an issue w/ him.

I'm not on speaking terms w/ our dog, Cherish. I took her out for a run this Saturday over to the Lake. She ran about 0.25 miles than sat down and refused to take another step. Even a step back toward the car. I had to carry the stupid beast all the way back to the car. The beautiful KMD hypothesized that it was her dinner time and that she didn't feel like running as a result. Once home, she was running around like normal. BAD DOG!

The beautiful KMD is more beautiful than ever, but you'll be able to see that yourselves, so there's no sense going on about it.

I like lots of new music and bands, but I do not expect you to be interested in them. Rest assured, Dolberry is NOT interested in any new music, bands, movies, blogs, etc., that you may find interesting.

Dolberry has not followed the NFL much either. Certainly not last week or the first week of the season. No sense discussing.

If you have any other topics you'd like to pre-discuss in advance of the feeding frenzy, go ahead and post a comment. Otherwise, for your own safety, please do not get between me and the turkey. (Not Dad, the edible turkey.)

Another genius idea from Dolberry

There's been a lot of speculation about where A-Rod will end up for the 2008 baseball season, especially since the biggest money teams (NYY and BOS) have said they're uninterested. Given that Scott Boras (A-Rod's agent) has apparently indicated that it'll take $350 million just to get him to the negotiating table, the focus has settled on the next tier of big-spending MLB clubs (2007 salaries shown below):

New York Yankees $ 189,639,045
Boston Red Sox $ 143,026,214
New York Mets $ 115,231,663
Los Angeles Angels $ 109,251,333
Chicago White Sox $ 108,671,833
Los Angeles Dodgers $ 108,454,524
Seattle Mariners $ 106,460,833
Chicago Cubs $ 99,670,332
Detroit Tigers $ 95,180,369
Baltimore Orioles $ 93,554,808

The Mets would have to rearrange their infield w/ Wright & Reyes. The White Sox are probably spending as much as Reinsdorf wants to spend. The Cubs are probably hamstrung while trying to sell the club. Doubt Seattle wants A-Rod, Part II. So, it'll probably be one of the L.A. teams or Detroit/Baltimore (or maybe the Giants).

But ... Dolberry encourages some of the smaller-market and traditionally-hapless clubs to think outside the box. They too, can get in on this sweepstakes w/ a little creativity.

The Reds, Royals, Pirates, Devil Rays, Marlins, and Nationals need to band together to sign an A-Rod timeshare. For only ~$60 mil (over 12 years, just 5 mil per year), they can secure the rights to A-Rod for one of the 6 months of the MLB season. ESPN could televise the drawing whereby each team found out what month they were getting that year.

This is in Michael Scott terms a "win win win". These lower teams secure access to a ballplayer they would normally have no chance of getting & the presumably higher attendance / revenue from "A-Rod" home dates (obviously, would require specialty pricing). A-Rod gets the salary he's looking for. And for fans of the Royals, for example, would you rather have Tony Pena and his .284 OBP in your lineup or a 3-time MVP?

There'd need to be some considerations obviously. With the increased travel this would put on A-Rod, we'd probably need to set aside the 1st & last days of each month as personal days. Who gets him in the playoffs shouldn't be an issue because the odds of two of the above six teams making the playoffs are pretty high even w/ a month of A-Rod.

Maybe even more imporantly ... I think this sets up a more realistic framework for how baseball contracts will work in the future. Everything will be a la carte. Everyone is a free agent until the rosters are announced for that days game (e.g., 4 hrs in advance). Say the Yankees have a big series coming up w/ Seattle. It's Labor Day and their 2 games back. They could get Josh Beckett's agent on the phone and work out a deal for a Beckett start (say maybe 8 mil ... 'cause they need this win). Beckett might only have to work 6-7 games a year & still be able to pull down 15-20 million. Players will be independent contractors like pro golfers. Each team will have to have a stable of "everyday'ers" (rookies, lower-salary guys that need the money & will play a Tuesday night game in PNC Park in mid-April) to be ready to fill in when teams don't feel like coughing up the cash (e.g., out of the race, small market, etc.). But even "everyday'ers" would be eligible for free agency after a year or two.

Traditionalists will howl. Dolberry himself will miss the old days, but what-the-hey, it'll still be better than soccer.

No more Sarasota (after 2008)

Sarasota residents voted down a $16 mil bond referendum yesterday that would have kept the Reds in Sarasota for another 30 years. W/o the renovation of Ed Smith Stadium the Reds have said they will host their Spring Training games elsewhere.

There's the usual heated internet argument on the Sarasota Herald Leader page between "snowbirds" bemoaning the loss of their traditional visits to SRQ and those locals who are pleased that there'll be less traffic and "brain-dead" baseball fans. Dolberry agrees w/ both camps, Yes, one does have to be somewhat impaired in the brain dept. to pay $109 /night for rooms in those shabby Tamiami Trail hotels (Knights Inn, Sleep Inn, etc.). And yes, I will also miss greatly going to SRQ in future springs.

People always imply that voters are not smart enough to figure things out, but in this case I think one Sarasotan had the topic nailed.

"Let the Chicago Cubs or whoever they are pay for it themselves," retired Ohio school teacher Susan Slovensky said after voting no.

Dolberry agrees. If the Cubs can pay middle-reliever Scott Eyre $4 mil a year, they can pony up for repairs to Ed Smith Stadium. Even if they do play in AZ ...

And as usual, it is the politicians that have it all wrong. One local city councilman was on TV saying it could be a good thing. That they could raze Ed Smith and build needed youth soccer fields.

Soccer? Soccer?!? Councilman. You have done enough. Have you no sense of decency sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency? Soccer! Give me a break! Soccer.

Weekend Update

We had a great time in Winston-Salem last Friday. We wandered around the Wake Forest campus (small, but neat) a little bit ... telling APD it was his first official college visit. He was most impressed that Arnold Palmer went there. After that we got pizza at a Mellow Mushroom (cool pizza chain). Then we went to the show. Ruth, Relient K, & Switchfoot all rocked. Highlights were (obviously) "Meant to Live" from the Foot & (surprisingly) "Sleigh Ride" by RK. Then we went home.

Saturday & Sunday were less eventful. But fine.

The Canes are up 5-0 vs. the Caps right now. They're looking good for another long trip into the NHL playoffs ... some 6 months from now.

The glorious Billikens won their first exhibition game vs. UMSL. I have to go to a conference in St. Louis next week. (Hey, I just clicked on that link ... they have me listed as an "invited speaker" ... what a hoot.) Anyway, the glorious Billikens play the day before I get there & the day after I leave. Bummer.

The Browns have two marginally tough games next, then 6 really easy ones. They could go 10-6 w/o really trying, which would be pretty funny.

Am excited the Reds signed Dunn. Will be interesting to see if Sarasota voters pass the bond referendum tomorrow to share costs w/ the Reds in fixing up Ed Smith Stadium.

APD's report card

He got all A's & made the "A" honor roll, which is hard to do in the 1st quarter according to his teacher. She said so many nice things about APD. (All true. All things we know. But nice to hear nonetheless.) I was telling the beautiful KMD, that parent/teacher conference day is one of my favorite of the year.

Friday we're going to see Switchfoot / Relient K in Winston-Salem. Very excited for that.

What else ... still 120+ days 'til softball again.

Work is fine. Busy, but good busy for now.

Kristy sprained her ankle really badly about 10 days ago. It just quit being purple. She's itchin' to run, but it's still too painful. I think she'll need 3-4 weeks off. I actually ran 1.5 miles today which is pretty good for a fat guy.

Halloween snuck up on us this year. APD wanted to be the Silver Surfer or nothing. The nothing option was easier to pull off at the last second. About 12 kids came by our house which is pretty much the usual. We'll be better prepared for Veteran's Day!

Hope all readers are doing GREAT!!!! We'll see family readers in 3 weeks!!! Can't wait.

CHAMPIONS!!!

Our fall softball team won our first ever title tonight 12-11. It was back & forth all game. We went up 11-8 in the bottom of the 6th w/ three runs (all w/ two outs).

Then, the 7th inning was one of the strangest of the season. After being w/in one strike of the title in the top of the frame only to have a 3-run HR tie it up at 11, the LO had 2 out & nobody on in the bottom of the frame ... before our 7 hitter lined a single up the middle ... then JK smacked a single between short & third ... and as Mark K pulled up at 2nd base ... the left fielder ... unbelieveably .... let it roll right through his legs in a perfect Bill Buckner imitation. BIG Mark scored easily & the title was ours. Strange way to win.

Now ... sadly ... it is the offseason. Much nicer to end the season w/ a win, though. Only 130 some odd days until first practice.

Softball update

We won both games on Monday ... so we're in the championship game next Monday.

We dispatched the worst team 21-3 in a nice warmup G1. Then, we fell behind the #2 seed 5-0 after two innings, before roaring back w/ a 19-5 run over the last 4.5 innings. It was probably the best stretch of softball in LO history as we drubbed a good team. They'll have to beat us twice next Monday to prevent the first ever Law Office tournament title.

Other than that ... all is fine.

My World Series pick: Boston over Colorado in 6.

Baseball thoughts

O'Jimmies came in 2nd this year. We went into the last week w/ a tenuous lead & our guys proceeded to toss out their worst week of the year. Glavine & Reyes hurt the O'Jimmies at least as much as they did the Mets. Oh well, 2nd of 13 is pretty darn good. Not sure if anyone has ever repeated in the league. Kudos to the Senor GM.

APD's last baseball game of the year was tonight. They were the #8 seed playing the #1 seed. He came up in the 1st w/ no one on and 2 out and worked a walk (fouling off two 2-strike pitches). He stole 2nd & then the cleanup hitter got a single. APD tried to score & was called out on a bogus call at the plate. His team gave up 4 in the bottom of the first. It was 6-1 after the 2nd. In the third his team got 3 runs, including one on an APD bases loaded single. APD pitched the bottom of the third and gave up 1 run. His "D" made a great OF catch & DP to keep the damage to a minimum. Nobody scored in the 4th as the "D" & APD worked a 1-2-3 inning w/ a 6-3, K, 6-3. The last inning (time) was the fifth. The other team got 2 outs quick, but two walks and an HBP later, APD was up w/ bases loaded. (Really didn't want to see him make the last out of the game.) The pitcher blew two swinging strikes by him, but APD smacked a line drive single up the middle on an 0-2 count to make it 7-5. He went to 2nd on the throw home. Then our cleanup hitter got on on a catchers interference, but the rally ended there and it was a 7-5 loss. It was his team's best game & APD's best game. Very cool. I was so proud of him ... APD is clutch.

We won the big softball game last week ... to bring our magic number to 1, but then we played pitifully last night to fall to 11-2. Should clinch tomorrow as we play the winless team.

My MLB playoff picks:

Phillies over Rox in 5; D'Backs over Cubs in 3;
Indians over Yanks in 4; and Angels over RedSox in 5.
--
Phillies over D'Backs in 5;
Angels over Indians in 7.
--
Angels over Phils in 6.

Early 2008 predictions: Reds in MLB; O'Jimmies in LCL.

Heydilly-ho bloggerinos!

Not much up here.

Softball team is 10-1 (w/ 5 to go). If we win tomorrow, we all but clinch the regular season title. This would be the first Law Office title in 8 years of trying. Yay for us.

APD's team broke a 5 game losing streak w/ a tie tonight. APD gave up 2 runs in 2 IP, but actually pitched really well striking out 4 w/ no walks. The other team had some good hitters. He also played some good defense at 3B. He walked all three times up.

Work is ok.

Not much is up in Apex either. There was a flasher who got arrested. That's been the oddest thing lately. Let me know how many "Keep Apex odd!" t-shirts you want. $14.99 per shirt.

We're sweating out the last week of rotisserie baseball. Currently, the glorious O'Jimmies hold a beyond tenuous 0.5 pt lead. If we were to hold on, it would mark back-2-back championships. Our geezer brigade of Glavine and Moyer let us down tonight. Ideally, MLB would decide that the season should be cut short by 5 days.

Worst. Entry. Ever.

The Value of an Extra Hour of Sleep

Everything these days is gauged by its monetary value. For instance, at work, we promulgate rules only if we can prove the rule will save more money (e.g., reduced health care costs) than it will cost. Obviously, some things are harder to quantify (e.g., the value of a pristine bright blue sky). I'm not sure if anyone has quantified the value of an extra hour of sleep ... but we can attest that it's at least $6 ... which was the cost we gladly agreed to swallow this morning in order to return our rental car an hour late.

If there are any UK fans who read this blog ... go away! No, I'm just kidding. I thought UK played an exceptional game. This morning ... after a rough night of sports ... and thinking about the value of time ... and pondering two funerals ... and wondering what people'll say about me when I pass on ... I decided I was giving up sports. BUT that was before the O'Jimmies pulled to w/in 1.5 points of first place, so I'm sticking around for another 2 weeks. After that, I'm finding something else to do.

Interestingly, as I'm writing this, we're watching the Emmys and they just had a classic line from Michael Scott: "A boss’s salary isn’t just about money. It’s about perks. For example, every year I get a $100 gas card. Can’t put a price on that." Oh here's an even funnier one from the same episode ... "Negotiations are all about controlling things; about being in the driver’s seat. And, you make one tiny mistake and you’re dead. I made one tiny mistake, I wore woman’s clothes."

Rampaging bull loose in Apex!

Yay. Another crazy Apex story. Loose bull last Friday. Eluded capture for some 6 hours. Well done Bone Collector.

It was a draining week at work. A two day weekend was not enough refilling.

Our softball team is in first. 5-1.

APD's team is 2-2. They lost two 1-run games this week (3-2 and 4-3). He pitched three more scoreless innings (6.2 on the season w/ no runs). Plus, he went 2-4 and made three putouts in the field. We have (ahem) an arrangement in which there are benefits if certain milestones are hit. It is working too well. APD came off the field last game & said "You owe me big." We're trying to recommunicate that it's not a job.

Can't believe UL only lost one spot in the rankings.

The ever-increasingly beautiful KMD & I celebrated our 15th (crystal) anniversary this week. I offered to download a Crystal Gayle song from Itunes for her, but she said no thanks.

Hey, I turn 41 tomorrow. Joy! Thanks to all for putting up w/ me, some if not all of those years.

Keep Louisville Weird

Hey all. Hope all is well.

I wore my "Keep Louisville Weird" t-shirt out & about today (an X-mas gift from Uncle Sparky). Interestingly, the ratio of people who asked me what the shirt meant to people who saw the shirt was 1.00.

I patiently explained that it was a campaign by independent Louisville businesses to encourage patronage of non-chain type stores/restaurants/etc. Well, I patiently explained it the first 5 or so times ... after that I made stuff up.

The best response to the shirt ... from the beautiful KMD who said that if I wanted to keep Louisville weird, then I should move back there.

All is fine here ... KMD & Dolberry went out on an actual date on Friday which was nice. Dolberry had a stellar softball game last Wed. 4-4 w/ an HR and 4-5 D plays at 3B. Then APD showed me up on Saturday as his team improved to 2-0. He came in to pitch in the bottom of the first w/ the bases loaded & 1 out. He struck out the next two guys. Then after giving up a hit and a walk in the 2nd, he struck out the next 3 guys including the leadoff & #2 hitters. He's pitched 2.2 innings, struck out 8, 1 hit, 1 walk, and he has a win and a save. Plus, he was 1-2 batting w/ a run scored.

Oh, and I fixed some more stuff this weekend ... installed a 3-way wall switch dimmer (easy) and new TP roll holders (easy, once I quit following the directions)

Have a good week.

Advice from Dolberry

If you live in Louisville KY, you should consider going to the State Fair tomorrow night & seeing Switchfoot. You will not be disappointed. Preview here.

Hey, I'm in a bad mood tonight & I thought I'd let the whole internets know about it ... plus I wanted to check how long a title Blogger would let me

... have.

4 letters too short. Typical.

On the bright side, APD had a dynamite fall baseball debut. Going 1-2 w/ a walk, two runs, an RBI, and a one inning save in which he struck out the side on 11 pitches. His team won 10-7 in extra innings. He's awesome ... like all you guys.

Stay alive!

Hey, sorry I haven't blogged in a while

Not really that much to say ...

We had at lot of fun at the beach w/ the Burbach crew. The temps were nice & hot (at one point the heat index was a crazy 125F) & the water temps were pleasantly cool. And of course the company was nice.

I still feel great satisfaction upon tinkling in the newly restored toilet. More pride than I've felt peeing since I was two years old ... ok three .................. all right seven. Are you happy?

We were helping the beautiful KMD w/ the dishes tonight (a very rare occasion) & I was washing, Alex drying, & tbKMD was putting away. I was telling Alex how when we were younger, Aunt Kathy always washed, I dried, & Kristin put away. I said I thought drying was the easiest job. Alex agreed & then added why did you have the easiest job being the oldest ... implying my skills should have been applied in a tougher role. The beautiful KMD & I both laughed out loud.

Softball's started this week, but it's been a strange bummer. Our first opponent forfeited & the team we played tonight was the worst team I've ever seen. They had trouble catching the even the easiest pop flys. We scored 21 runs in only 3 innings before the mercy rule was invoked.

Hope all readers are doing grrrreat.

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!!

DOLBERRY HAS FIXED THE DOWNSTAIRS TOILET!

After being broken down for roughly 36 months, Dolberry spent about 2 hours today and fixed the downstairs toilet. Turns out it needed one of these and Dolberry needed some of this.

Needless to say, "We Are the Champions" is blaring pretty loudly from the Dolberry household this afternoon.

Top 3 things Dolberry has ever fixed:

1. Downstairs toilet

Hurricane Conrad

Do NOT mess w/ this man ... Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher!

Catching DCV readers up on the goings-on at the Hurricane Center:

When we last left this sordid tale, ~40% of the NHC staff had signed a letter asking for the head of the Center to be reassigned. The letter was produced and signed while a NOAA assessment team was on-site to investigate concerns about dysfunctionality at the Hurricane Center. Not surprisingly, the assessment team recommeded his (Bill Proenza's) removal for fear that his presence there would cause "disruption that threatens the Tropical Prediction Center's ability to fulfill its mission to the American people." (TPC = NHC)

(Dolberry advises that when you hear a politician or government bureaucrat hail the "American people" ... run for cover.)

So yesterday, NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher (esteemed boater of some sort), was called before Congress to explain his actions. Here are some of the highlights, see here for complete transcript: (Dolberry in green.)

1. He starts off by assuring the (get running) "American people" that NOAA and the NHC is fully prepared to do their job this hurricane season. Hey, what a difference a couple of weeks makes.

2. He then recounts what made Hurricane Conrad mad in the first place, that Proenza complained about the wasteful NOAA "200th" anniversary spending and how that money could have been better used for almost anything (he used replacing a satellite as an example). IMO, this infuriated Conrad because it's not the way a junior officer is supposed to behave.

3. He then goes on a bit of a "money laundering" tack, saying he hired this Mary Flack'n, er Mary Glackin (Hey, that's good angry blogosphering there. I'm sticking w/ Flack'n.) who in her first days on the job was instructed (by whom it is not named, but we can guess) to improve managerial rigor. She sent a memo to Proenza reminding him "the need for adherence to ... the chain of command".

4. Conrad says Flack'n got a call on the evening of the 6/18 from NHC staff requesting a call about the situation down there. The call took place at noon on 6/19. There's your most convincing evidence that this was a total whack job. In the government, nobody gets a conference call set up for the next day. It's simply not heard of. And in the summertime? Right.

5. Turns out the NHC forecasters were "scared", "anxious", "felt muzzled". They basically didn't think Proenza was up for the job. (That's fine. Um, NHC staff join probably 30-70% of the rest of us working stiffs inside and outside the government. The line is back there.)

6. The assessment team came down & felt they couldn't do their job w/ Proenza being there, trying to maintain support from those who hadn't signed on to the coup. Which would seem to be his right.

7. They receommended his temporary reassignment so they could finish their assessment.

8. The assessment (surprise, surprise, surprise) came back unanimously that Proenza needed to go.

OK, realistically, if you say something your boss doesn't like, it's (generally) within his right to prevent you from saying it again. And I don't think this rises to the level of "whistleblower" incident. NOAA's wasteful spending on stupid Safety Seagulls and spamming their own employees w/ "200th" anniversary nonsense are a matter of public record. But, you really have to marvel at the colossal blunderingness w/ which this has been accomplished.

Conrad, you got your guy. In the process you got a) major media coverage about problems w/ one of your premier groups, b) set a precedent for future staff insurrections, & c) raised the ire of a Democratic-controlled Congress right in the FY-08 budget discussions. To put it in your terms, I believe this is called "winning the battle, but losing the war."

(update)

Um, the DCV has to apologize. The picture above was not Hurricane Conrad. This is him below. We sincerely apologize to anyone offended.

We're Number 14! We're Number 14!

So says Money Magazine in their ranking of Great American towns. If you throw out all the crazy cold places in MN, NE and WI that they have in the ranking, we'd be in the Top 10. No place where the average high in March is < 50 F should qualify for anything but a prison camp.

We scored high in the categories of low crime, educated citizens, and sheep-to-citizen ratio.

All right one last pop music thing, then I'll move on

I'm kinda stuck using Napster's online music service because my portable XM satellite radio is affiliated w/ them (& seems to work most smoothly w/ that player). Anyway, it's way inferior to Itunes or Walmart.com, but like Itunes it feels compelled to recommend music to me "based on my tastes". (Itunes' app like this is very good.)

Napster's #1 recommendation to me? Hannah Montana 2.

Um, no thanks.

DCV Top Bands of the 80's: #1

1. U2

Reasons why U2 is better than every other band of the 1980's:

a) The songs. There are about 20-30 U2 songs that make Dolberry very happy whenever he hears them. (I'll list them under "best songs".)

b) There was never a better video than U2's "Sunday Bloody Sunday" where they were at Red Rocks outside Denver. A storm rolls in. You can see the band's breath as Bono waves his white flag and screams his frustration "I'm so sick of it!" He was sick of the violence in Northern Ireland and 1983 Dolberry was sick of doing homework, taking out the trash, or having girls not lining up to date him. Nevertheless, we were kindred spirits against cruel outside forces. (Video added to sidebar.)

c) No other band of the 80's played a concert in St. Louis MO in 1987 on the same night as the 6th game of the World Series (Twins - Cardinals) and sucked up to the crowd by having their lead singer come out emblazoned in a Cardinals jacket and hat (which he threw to the crowd).

d) More than any other "star" I know, U2's Bono has leveraged his fame to do something other than general self-indulgence. Personally, Dolberry thinks he's done almost entirely good things which is an added bonus.

e) The Edge's guitar sound.

f) U2's Super Bowl appearance which paid tribute to the 9/11 victims while reaffirming that the US and people of good faith everywhere will not bow down to evil.

g) My Dad once said, while demanding that early U2 be turned off, that "this is awful" & "those guys will never amount to anything". It is, to my knowledge, the only time my dad was ever wrong about anything. (For the record, my mom was only wrong once as well ... thinking potato soup was edible.)

h) I heard Bono say once, "Quit asking God to bless what you're doing. Instead, find out what He's doing and do that. It's already blessed."

i) I like how U2 rebounded from a period in which they thought songs about this citrus fruit were good ideas. I like the fact that they tried that whole weird mid-90's Pop Mart thing ... even if I never got it. (Others 80s bands rebounded, but not to the same level as U2.)

j) U2 is from Ireland. Dolberry ancesters are from Ireland.

k) I like the fact that U2's absence from Live Earth was advocated by the antiGores as evidence that the concept of global warming is somehow flawed. (They're recording a new album in Africa at present.)

l) I like the fact that when U2 was starting out they claimed "I can't change the world, but I can change the world in me."

m) I like that U2 is so into America (our strengths, as well as our failings)

n) I like the fact that there's no better song to play on your headset while walking on the beach on a grey cloudy day than "The Unforgettable Fire". Seriously, I think that's one of the best experiences one can have on Earth.

o) I like how U2 usually opens "Where the Streets Have No Name" w/ a snippet from one of the Psalms (e.g.: Ps 116-12-13).

p) Bono's 80's hair, while widely mocked, is still a target that to which Dolberry aspires.

q) I like the fact that the Edge so admired Stuart Adamson and paid a touching tribute to him upon his death.

r) I like the fact that Bono's been married to his wife for 25 years.

s) I liked the U2 appearance on the Simpsons and that Monty Burns thinks they're "wankers".

t) I like how U2 pretty much carried both "Do They Know Its Christmas" and Live Aid.

u) Who knows to what degree, but it's pretty impressive that a band would have any role in bringing warring parties to peace as U2 did in Northern Ireland.

v) I like the fact that U2 claims to be the best band in the world.

w) I like the fact that U2 has stuck together all these years. Not just the band, but it seems like most of their team members have stuck together all these years.

Best songs: Pride, Where the Streets Have No Name, Walk On, Until the End of the World, Sunday Bloody Sunday, Beautiful Day, New Years Day, The Unforgettable Fire, Vertigo, The Fly, I Will Follow, With or Without You, I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For, One, In God's Country, October, Gloria, Wake Up Dead Man, Elevation, Out of Control, All I Want Is You, Bullet the Blue Sky, etc., etc.

Worst songs: Lemon

Future spring training trips in jeopardy?

It's looking pretty bleak for future spring training sojourns to see the Reds in Sarasota FL. The Sarasota Herald Tribune has run several articles recently on the (lack of) progress in securing a long-term arrangement. Earlier in the year, it looked like the Reds, the State of FL, Sarasota Co., and the City of Sarasota were going to jointly fund a $55 million dollar stadium that would rival Clearwater's Bright House Networks gem of a facility. The political environment in the area appears to have somewhat soured on public funding of a ballpark in the last local election cycle. In recent weeks, the Reds have advanced a scaled-back plan ($45 mil) that would upgrade the current Ed Smith Stadium (which I never realized is built on a landfill), but that doesn't look to get local public funds either.

I don't really blame the local Sarasota government for not wanting to fund it. Here's my quick estimate of how much money goes into the local economy based on our travels there: a) we spend about $200-300 dollars a day there (mostly to hotels, but some to restaurants, grocery stores, gas stations, convenience stores, golf courses, & then $ to the Reds for tix, souvenirs), b) by my calculation there are probably 500-1000 families / spending units doing the same thing on any given home date that wouldn't be there w/o the Reds (figuring the crowd is ~50-75% local). My rough guess would be about $2-4 million a season comes into the Sarasota economy. There are costs as well (traffic control) that would have to be subtracted. Over 30 years (length of proposed deal), the $ in would almost certainly exceed the initial investment (probably about $25-35 mil after overruns). But the investment would directly only benefit a few sectors of the economy and only indirectly help (taxes, jobs) the local populace as a whole. The apparent competitor for the local money potentially slated for the Reds is seaweed cleanup along the beaches. That would appear to help more people & would also probably maintain more tourism inflow. Also, cheaper events like the Sarasota Marathon probably have way higher tourists/investment ratios.

The bottom line is (to me) that there's already enough tourists in Sarasota in March to support the local economy. When bargain-basement hotel chains can charge triple-digits a night, the demand is strong. Also, I think the Castellini-led Reds deserve some praise here by (at least according to the local paper) not blatantly trying to extort a new stadium from the local government w/ threats and artificial deadlines.

So, while Dolberry will miss the times in Sarasota here are my preferred locations for future Reds spring training locations:

1. Orlando FL - I believe Griffey Jr would likely personally defray $2-3 mil of any costs associated to spend March at home. Hotels are way cheaper in Orlando & the non-baseball entertainment is pretty nice.

2. Clearwater FL - The Reds could share Bright House w/ the Phillies, thereby enabling Dolberry to eat cheesesteaks 4 times a year, instead of only 1.

3. Apex-Cary NC - They could play at the new USA baseball academy; Josh Hamilton could spend his days at home; and we could charge people to sleep in our shed (which is at least as nice as that Knights Inn in Sarasota). The weather's pretty nice in March.

4. Toyko Japan - The Reds could just play Japanese league teams all March & in 30 dates maybe draw 750,000 people. If they could make an additional $1 per ticket than present, they could funnel that $750K into buying a relief pitcher that could get a guy out in the 8th inning occasionally.

5. Las Vegas, NV - The potential Pete Rose tie-ins are innumerable.

6. Anywhere but Arizona - The world does not need any more 17-11 Spring Training games.

7. Oh yeah, and not Winter Haven FL - Ugh.

Need your faith in humanity restored? Check video to right.

Hard not to like the Phillies after that.

You know what bothers me?

The 'Just For Men' commercial where they say "Let the real you come through", then encourage you to hide the real you by coloring your hair.

That's just stupid.

All of the other commercials irritate me just slightly less. Not enough monkeys in commercials anymore.

What doesn't bother me? The O'Jimmies are in 2nd place ... our high-water mark for season. (Of course, Josh Hamilton strained his wrist tonight swinging @ the on-deck circle. ?!?)

Embarassing days for NOAA

Have you guys been following the soap opera at the National Hurricane Center? What a truly embarassing display by government employees of many ilks. The quick synopsis is this:

New guy (Bill Proenza) hired to manage NHC. Complains about NOAA budget decisions hurting the NHC's ability to forecast hurricanes. Congressional Democrats pressure NOAA to quit hurting the NHC's ability to forecast hurricanes. NOAA reprimands their new hire w/ a humorously threatening e-mail, saying he's hurting the NHC's ability to forecast hurricanes. New guy leaks reprimand to media. NOAA brass get bad press. Congressional Democrats pressure NOAA more.

This Monday, NOAA's administrator and long-time Dolberry nemesis "The Admiral", sends an assessment team down to Miami because of stated concerns about the NHC's ability to ... everyone now ... "because of concerns about the NHC's ability to meet its mission". (In The Admiral's world, everything is a mission. He's presumably talking about predicting hurricanes here.)

Now yesterday, about 40% of the NHC staff signs a petition calling for Proenza's ouster, saying (yawn) they're concerned about their ability to forecast hurricanes w/ him in charge. This seems rather suspicious, in light of NOAA's advance scouts being on-site.

Dolberry suspects none of the players in this whole drama are really concerned about protecting the public by accurately forecasting hurricanes. They are driven by either pride, anger, fear, opportunity, greed, or some other baser instinct. It's sad and embarassing for all of us in the public sector.

Lautenbacher should resign or be fired. This whole reckless incident has made the NOAA brand a laughingstock & more importantly has needlessly antagonized Congress. The Admiral is reminding me more and more of this ship's captain.

The ultimate reason to be against global warming

The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the more poison ivy grows and the more itchy the plant becomes.

Now ... it's personal.

Latest Apex oddity

In October we had the chemical explosions and the resultant toxic cloud.

In March we had the guy w/ 70 sheep in house.

Last week, a guy was arrested in Apex for having: eight guns (including SKS and AK-47 semi-automatic weapons), $7,910 in cash, numerous knives, 3,000 rounds of ammunition, two gas masks, a Kevlar helmet, a flak jacket, material for explosives (a time fuse, blasting caps, tubes and pipes), & 17 marijuana plants. He was arrested by Apex Police who had been called to his townhouse by his own complaint of a neighbor's barking dog (they smelled the marijuana & searched his premises).

I'm thinking that neighborhood dog was extremely lucky the police came when they did.

Holiday from Blogging

Hey, a lot's gone on since I last blogged ... here's a quick update:

June 1: Mom, Dad, Tim, Kris, & Mojo came in from Louisville for trip.

June 2: Went to Carowinds w/ TCC youth group. Much fun. It rained on us despite my assurances to all that it would not (for about three hours). Saw the Newsboys which is always nice.

June 3: Headed to Emerald Isle w/ the extended Dolberry clan. Caught up to the tail end of former Tropical Storm Barry. Swam in the pool in the rain. Ocean was a churned up.

June 4: Am sure we had fun on this day. Can't remember exactly what we did.

June 5: I'm gonna say we went golfing on this day. None of the golf was that memorable. APD and Sparky impressed at times. Scott & I hit a (curiously stupid) fish with our drivers.

June 6: Maybe we putt-putted and go karts on this day? I remember I lost at putt-putt. G'Ma won.

June 7: More fun at beach. I think I clinched the pool battle royale between KMD & I on this night. 3 nights to one.

June 8: APD and I made a cool sand stadium that got wiped out by a rising tide, despite numerous Dolberry forecasts that it would not.

June 9: Sad goodbyes to beach clan. What a great, relaxing, fun trip. Blow was softened by returning to a softball game. We only had 8 players and got pounded. I'm too out of shape to play OF in a 3 OF alignment.

June 10: First game of Apex tournament. We lost to #3 seed (as #2 seed) 14-9.

June 11-12: Two crazy days at work. Catching up from a week off & trying to prep for three more days away.

June 13: Headed out to Boulder/Denver for conference. Got to see Aunt Jane, Uncle Mike, and Jeannine, Shannon, and Michelle (and families). It was very hard to see Aunt Jane so sick. Was so glad to hear she was able to be returned to Louisville & hopefully will be transferred to a rehab center soon. As sad as it was to see Aunt Jane, it was equally happy to get to see all the (former) Fitzgerald cousins and their families. What a great group. I'm proud to be related to 'em.

June 14: My day to lead the conference and give two talks. Think it went well. Ate dinner in downtown Boulder. Boulder is always nice ... even the time I went out there for a job interview at NCAR and totally bombed the seminar I gave. Once the bombing was complete, I went and drove into the mountains which saved the trip.

June 15: Left Boulder at 3:15a local time to get back for our softball tournament that night. Plus, I was able to catch a show from a band that a YG member drums for. The key to good softball is waking up 2000 miles away, flying coach most of the morning, going to a smoky bar for loud music, than playing ball from 8-11p. I was 4-4 w/ two walks and flawless SS defense in two St Andy's wins (17-12 and 19-6).

June 16: Unfortunately, Catholic Blue team ran up against Baptist Blue and they beat us again. 9-6 this time. I had a chance to get us into a tie in the 5th, but flew out w/ 2 outs & a runner in scoring position.

June 17: Fathers Day was nice. I was treated to Philly Cheesesteaks for lunch & we had a TCC picnic that evening. Started to itch from poison ivy contracted presumably from yard work the day before.

June 18-21: Everything basically settling down. Over this month I applied for my own job and got it. So, I'll be switching over from NOAA to EPA sometime in July. It's only a slight raise, but is good to be actually working for the agency I've always done work for (if that makes any sense). The humorous bureaucratic thing is that I'll be on a 1-year probation (again) & they're doing a background check on me. I told HR that if there was anything worth stealing; I'd have stolen it already ... which they didn't think was funny. I itched profusely over these 4 days and moaned unceasingly to KMD and APD.

June 22: Went to doctor and got steroids. Immediate relief. Went swimming w/ APD and KMD. Very much fun. Hung out w/ some friends that night.

This weekend was fine. Went to Harvest Crusade w/ youth group. Other than that, just relaxed.

There! You are now all caught up on the tediousness that is Dolberry!